Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM backtrack again, showing cold again amazing models, 00Z seemed like an error run now

[danm]

You gotta laugh sometimes

That's the 0z chart mate.

EDIT: it's updated now.

Edited January 15, 2012 by danm

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H0-168.GIF?15-0

wheres OP- is it cold enough out to the EAST-?

Now, obviously the usual disclaimers apply, however I think to be fair all the way through the last 4 days ive been trying to drop a few hints on what could evolve & the ECM drops the cobra run in at just 144 !!

Steve

Edited January 15, 2012 by Steve Murr

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That's the 0z chart mate.

not now its not

[kold weather]

I didn't call the GFs stellar...BUT the 12z ECM is pretty close actually to stellar.

Both the GFS/ECm/UKMO have trended away from a flat pattern tonight to varying degrees, good to see some trough disruption from the 12z ECM!

[Matty M]

That little low from 144 to 168 could give a splash of snow to the west as it skirts through Ireland and western Britain

[If Wishes made Weather]

ECM t168 - YES PLEASE!

Shows a chilling NE'erly, with cold 850's dragged west across the UK.

And look what has happened to the PV - its reduced, in the space of circa a week to half of its previous extent. And the effect: high pressure trying to ridge over from the Russian/Eurasian HIgh through Scandi to the Azores High which is pushing higher into the Atlantic. The jet though still doesn't quite be seeming to allow a full link.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Bugger, ECM 12z alert!!!! been cottoned onto already.....

BFTP

[kold weather]

The only big downside is once again that weak shortwave is in view at 144hrs going up the western flank of the Azores high, very close to what the UKMO has. That probably will eventually topple everything come 192-216hrs. Still better runs tonight thus far.

[SMU]

DOUBLE KABOOM!!!! :bomb:

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?15-0

Looks messy but has heavy snow over the UK

UNDERCUTTER AT 216 I think

S

Edited January 15, 2012 by Steve Murr

[SP1986]

I'm reserving judgement tonight, too many shortwaves in the runs to have any kind confidence in either one, ECM look messy, the amount shortwaves on that run gives me little confidence (given that either model is very accurate when modelling them). GFS too a messy picture, after what would appear some great collaboration to 144hrs.

I think if the PV remains intact the Atlantic will overpower the continental ridging, for that reason it would be far better for the PV to be well and truly split.

[TEITS]

The only big downside is once again that weak shortwave is in view at 144hrs going up the western flank of the Azores high, very close to what the UKMO has. That probably will eventually topple everything come 192-216hrs. Still better runs tonight thus far.

Forgive me for saying this Darren but I don't understand these toppler comments. This isn't going to be a classic toppler situation due to LP over S Europe preventing the Azores HP moving E. Now with HP blocking to our NE , rather than toppling I see further undercutting.

Still a very uncertain outlook beyond +144 but a step in the right direction tonight towards a more prolonged cold spell.

[nick sussex]

DOUBLE KABOOM!!!! :bomb:

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?15-0

Looks messy but has heavy snow over the UK

UNDERCUTTER AT 216 I think

S

Lol!

Nice run from the ECM, this looks like the next model drama but you'd have to say if the ridge extends west this is a plausible outcome as the lows got nowhere to go but south.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

DOUBLE KABOOM!!!! :bomb:

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?15-0

Looks messy but has heavy snow over the UK

UNDERCUTTER AT 216 I think

S

No Steve, but by 240 though. Clear signs here of the block exerting from the East and as I mentioned earlier the UKMO digging that trough so far SE into Europe 144 really got my attention. I am not surprised at ecm tonight or the GFS, still aiming at tomorrow and we'll have all important period at t96

BFTP

[Matty M]

I'm reserving judgement tonight, too many shortwaves in the runs to have any kind confidence in either one, ECM look messy, the amount shortwaves on that run gives me little confidence (given that either model is very accurate when modelling them). GFS too a messy picture, after what would appear some great collaboration to 144hrs.

I think if the PV remains intact the Atlantic will overpower the continental ridging, for that reason it would be far better for the PV to be well and truly split.

You're the voice of reason on here Stephen.

The ECM run is an improved but doesn't show anything special and it is showing the best synoptic of all operationals this evening.

[kold weather]

Forgive me for saying this Darren but I don't understand these toppler comments. This isn't going to be a classic toppler situation due to LP over S Europe preventing the Azores HP moving E. Now with HP blocking to our NE , rather than toppling I see further undercutting.

Well to be fair your right its not a toppler, I just can't think of another term to describe it.

Anyway 12z ECM brings the PV back SE and Lp's reintroduce atlantic type conditions by 216hrs, however take note of where the heights are heading at 216hrs, I suspect the PV will cut a lobe off...will it follow some other GFS ensembles and send it into the Atlantic or will it go SE towards the UK.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012011512/ECH1-240.GIF?15-0

Launch Torpedo number one under the block

SNOW & More snow 168 192 216 & 240 for the East & SE of the UK ( & NE + elements of scotland)

Doesnt look a classic 'true' cold chart but the 216 has a ridge over the near continent VERY close to the feb 1996 synoptics....

S

[phil nw.]

There seems to a change in the outlook from the 12Z runs this evening so just a few observations here.

First looking at the GFS 12Z run which extends the initial colder shot to around 3 days when it brings the polar air south at around T120-144hrs.

stronger troughing from Scandi.down through E.Europe holds back the advance of the Azores high and keeps the UK under colder air for longer than previously modelled.

Certainly the GFS ens graph is colder than this mornings version.

06z is on the left.

mean dropping towards -3c and the Op run on the milder side too.

The UKMO,if anything looks a little colder around the transistion period with good n-s troughing deep into C.Europe at T144 with the cold air placed further west.Note too another little low over Iceland which could produce later in the nw-se flow as it comes south.

I thought 00z UKMO run looked to be the coldest of the runs at that stage and it seems to follow on from that.

Finally the ECM at T144hrs.going somewhat colder than it`s earlier run as well

good low pressure development over the continent and the cold air held to our west.A surface flow from the east developing in the next frame.

So a trend back to somewhat of a colder outlook this evening after some milder output on the 00zs when more of a cool zonal flow was modelled.

Now at T144hrs the European models could be pointing to something more prolonged and even the GFS has extended the initial cold incursion to around 3 days.

Edited January 15, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[danm]

You're the voice of reason on here Stephen.

The ECM run is an improved but doesn't show anything special and it is showing the best synoptic of all operationals this evening.

Don't quite understand this comment. IF it were to verify it would indeed be quite special, especially in the 144-168 range. But as ever, there is a week to go and there will be twists and turns to come.

[Cloud 10]

Great chart from ecm at 240hrs,polar vortex being torn apart!!!

[Nick F]

Good reason to get excited over the ECM, but those wise enough to step back will see the models, naturally, diverge after t+96. For example, there's divergence over where to place the PFJ next weekend - 12z ECM has the jet diving SE much further west than GFS - which allows the cold to back much further west over the UK as seen on the ECM operational.

Still need to keep that champagne on ice for now.

[Andy_]

Well to be fair your right its not a toppler, I just can't think of another term to describe it.

What about an 'Alofter', considering the air is still moving up :winky:

Much improved ECM tonight, can only be a good thing!

[nick sussex]

You're the voice of reason on here Stephen.

The ECM run is an improved but doesn't show anything special and it is showing the best synoptic of all operationals this evening.

Lol Matty if the ECM at 168hrs isn't special then I don't know what is.

I think we should just look at the trend not the detail, thats liable to change, if the low is forced to disrupt sending a shortwave south and with a strong ridge to the east this opens up lots of opportunities.

The key timeframe still remains getting the trough to sink into Europe far enough west and the Azores high to displace far enough to the west. If we get that then the ECM isn't a fantasy scenario.

[kold weather]

Well ECM 240hrs doesn't look great on the face of it, but its still not shocking, there is still a very weak area of higher heights over Greenland and if northern blocking was to restrengthen at all that lobe over the Atlantic would quickly get cut-off again.

I'll take ECM tonight, an decent, if not *that* cold set-up between 144-192hrs.

[chionomaniac]

Good reason to get excited over the ECM, but those wise enough to step back will see the models, naturally, diverge after t+96. For example, there's divergence over where to place the PFJ next weekend - 12z ECM has the jet diving SE much further west than GFS - which allows the cold to back much further west over the UK as seen on the ECM operational.

Still need to keep that champagne on ice for now.

Agreed Nick - perhaps you can see why I suggested FI was T+96 this morning!