East Anglia And The Three Counties Regional Discussion Thread

[fatyido]

Liam Dutton, from BBC Weather put this interesting blog on his Twitter page...

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/ding-ding-mild-air-cold-air/482

[Jason T]

Thats fine however I could just blame my daughter who has just got Chicken Pox, maybe she has delayed the snow until she is better so she can play in it......never underestimate the power of an 18 month old baby.

Some of the more experience people on the Confused/Off topicThread(Also known as The Model Discussion Thread) are predicting that we will have some nice snow this weekend so there is still hope yet.

Not blaming anyone its just that normally the Met Office are fairly prompt with warnings when there is any hint of a risk.

The problem is a volatile pattern, Also we have to remember in recent 2009 and 2010 events some warnings were not issued untill 4 to 6 hours before. Model thread is undecided mind frane as the weekend pattern is causing output problems to which i would guess is the same for the meto. Anyway prior to the weekend lots to look out for with potential.

Enjoy

SL

[Snowangel-MK]

Liam Dutton, from BBC Weather put this interesting blog on his Twitter page...

http://blogs.channel...ir-cold-air/482

Thanks for posting this it's a really good read, so please take note folks......

QUOTE FROM THE ABOVE LINK:

At the weekend, the weather is set to reach another interesting fork in the road. Mild air that was forced out of the way by cold air last weekend will try to make a return across the UK.

In the process of doing so, where the mild, moisture laden air meets the cold air, there is a chance of seeing some notable snowfall.

Once again, however, there is a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly this will happen, how much snow there will be and where it is most likely.

The difficulty with weather computer models is that they are often too eager to push cold air out of the way. Cold air is dense and digs in at the surface, making it reluctant to move very quickly.

When mild air moves in, it rises over this wedge of dense, cold air and, for a while at least, snow falls before eventually turning back to rain.

The additional problem that can result is freezing rain, which happens when the ground temperature is still at freezing or below and rain falls on it, freezing upon impact.

Widespread freezing rain situations are not that common in the UK, but when they do occur can be extremely disruptive with everything ending up coated in a layer of ice.

So what are the latest weather computer models saying? Well there is quite a spread of possible outcomes.

One of the weather computer models called the GFS (Global Forecast System) which is run by NOAA in the US is not keen on that much snow here in the UK.

It predicts a band of snow moving in during Saturday night, with most places having a few centimetres. However, it quickly turns it back to rain with a thaw setting in on Sunday as milder air floods in from the west.

Another weather computer model called the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is keen to produce a lot more snow, predicting that most places could see 5-10cm, locally more by the end of Sunday.

It is also in favour of the cold air hanging on for longer, hence why it is keen to predict more snow.

So at this stage the weekend could potentially bring a spell of snow, but it is worth emphasising that it is still four days away and a lot can change between now and then.

[Timmytour]

My feeling remains that the east will give way to the west by the end of the weekend. What's more I think the Met Office think this as well and only the need to cover their backsides is preventing them coming out and saying it.

One small straw I will remain clutching like a little boy.......I remember (back in Jan 1979 I think) a time when we had had snow, but the forecast was for a front to sweep eastwards over night, with snow turning to rain and everything becoming milder. that evening, disconsolate, I watched the lamposts....saw the snow but with a heavy heart knowing it wouldn't last...and indeed before I went to bed it had started turning to sleet and had got noticeably milder.

The next morning my brother woke me up and urged me to look out the window. He told me it was white everywhere. I thought he was just playing tricks and went to the window to shut him up more than anything. But it was gloriously white and still snowing heavily. Overnight, despite the forecasts, the high had pushed the front back.

What a fantastic feeling. Wouldn't mind seeing that happen again.....though I'm of course highly wary that the tools of prediction these days are a whole lot more sensitive!

[Random Images]

Just been down to the most easterly point in the UK, and it was freezing. Took this snap to show the North Sea being whipped up by the east wind, and look how cloudless that sky is. Could not figure out how to upload a pic, so here is a link to it. http://randomimages.moonfruit.com/#/north-sea/4560253787

[Hughsey]

Wow feeling very chilly out there today, looking forward to radar watching over the next couple of days to see if we can get some snow showers.

Currently 2 degrees with -7 dew points.

[chilly milly]

Just been down to the most easterly point in the UK, and it was freezing. Took this snap to show the North Sea being whipped up by the east wind, and look how cloudless that sky is. Could not figure out how to upload a pic, so here is a link to it. http://randomimages....-sea/4560253787

Great pic Random, I can't believe how blue that sky is.

We are due to go to Norfolk on Saturday, near Kings Lynn area, but everything held in the balance as even if we don't get snow here, it may snow there.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Oh well, another winter, another dissapointment., each day, less and less chance of seeing any snow showers, pressure looks like being too high, even with nice cold uppers. The front pushing in at the weekend will almost certainly fizzle out as it reaches us due to pressure being too high again.

Background signals promote blocking moving to greenland area, which im pretty sure will be the case, but by the time it gets here, mid feb onwards, the sun will be powering up, making it likely to be marginal, and anyway, you can bet that the greenie high moves into such a position that will just offer the U.K a more Northwesterly airflow, keeping us here just dry and cold till the atlantic returns eventually. Just my pessamistic take on things,, but i bet it turns out very much like that!

[WheresTheSnow]

Oh well, another winter, another dissapointment., each day, less and less chance of seeing any snow showers, pressure looks like being too high, even with nice cold uppers. The front pushing in at the weekend will almost certainly fizzle out as it reaches us due to pressure being too high again.

Background signals promote blocking moving to greenland area, which im pretty sure will be the case, but by the time it gets here, mid feb onwards, the sun will be powering up, making it likely to be marginal, and anyway, you can bet that the greenie high moves into such a position that will just offer the U.K a more Northwesterly airflow, keeping us here just dry and cold till the atlantic returns eventually. Just my pessamistic take on things,, but i bet it turns out very much like that!

I think the UKMO has upgraded and the short term ECM doesnt seem too bad from what I've been reading in the Model thread, we still got snow possibilties .

[Timmytour]

From treading he model thread....sounds like we were 2-0 down with 10 minutes to go, have scored one and now the referee is consulting with his lineman to see whether or not the foul he has already awarded us was in or outside the area.

The linesman's name is GFS 18z

[Hughsey]

A few blobs appearing out in the north sea, good sign IMO, whether they develop and move in land is unsure, but worth keeping an eye on.

Current Temp: -0.9°C

High Temp Today:3.3°C at 1:33pm

Low Temp Today:-2.9°C at 7:51am

Dew Point:-7.9°C

Wetbulb:-3.0°C

[Random Images]

Winds are now gusting here at just over 40mph, I can here the North Sea waves crashing on the beach. So different from the total calm of yesterday. Wind chill is now minus 7c.

[Andy H]

i cannot belive how quite this thread is? this place should be buzzing

[huntso]

From treading he model thread....sounds like we were 2-0 down with 10 minutes to go, have scored one and now the referee is consulting with his lineman to see whether or not the foul he has already awarded us was in or outside the area.

Hope it goes the same way as a match i watched last season with that very scoreline

0-2 down with ten minutes to go in the FA cup, ended up wining 8-2 aet, those eight goals would equal a lot of snow in this case

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Still looking cold and dry for us on the ECM tonite, front probably not even making it to us as expected, but you never know though, we might end up with it stalling, then pushing back! Then if we were really lucky, a northerly shift of the scandi high, (with a nice little low popping up over france), giving us the proper snowy eastily we should of had this week!, then a shift of the high to greenland leeving us in a potent NE flow and huge dumping of snow from the north sea with plenty of Thunder snow, and the additiion of one or two polar lows developing in the flow from the arctic, 10 foot drifts and the week off work! - now that would be more like what we deserve.... i can only dream..

[Pixel]

ooh I just seen a gritter heading south quite fast... think he may be coming back over the next few days

run this little animation fast and you can see the orange slugs (snow) crawling through the sea - some actually make it to land.

http://www.meteox.co...oop.aspx?type=1

I know there are better forecast models out there but this one is interesting to see - i really do expect more over the next few days but then I'm an optimist inspired by models that chop and change quite regularly (-:

edit : the gritter just came back... must have forgotten something, salt maybe?

Edited February 1, 2012 by Pixel Precipitation

[stratty]

On a more realistic note lol................

The BBC weatherforcasters have mentioned light flurries tonight and tomorrow, mainly around the coasts and through the wash area. Potential for (and quote!) "some hefty showers coming into East Anglia" on Friday, which can also be seen now on the latest fax chart, and more snow late on Saturday, should the front get this far.

Bring it on.......as it is about bloody time!

[padtad]

A few flakes in the air in Hemsby NR29

[Country Boy]

Boy HO is it freezing outside, -1 at the moment but a strong 26 mph East wind making it at least -8..

[Hughsey]

Current Temp: -1.6°C

High Temp Today:3.3°C at 1:33pm

Low Temp Today:-2.9°C at 7:51am

Dew Point: -7.5°C

Wetbulb:-3.4°C

Humidity:64%

Temps still falling, with dew points rising (from -8 , humidity on the up (60% to 64%), and a few light showers starting to form, good signs.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Hughsey

[Country Boy]

Showers in the north sea look like they are getting bigger.

follow the link below

http://www.buienradar.nl/

[Snowangel-MK]

Temperature -2.8 °C Windchill -6 °C Dew Point -11 °C Humidity 53%

Feels much colder tonight

[Iceni]

Just been down to the most easterly point in the UK, and it was freezing. Took this snap to show the North Sea being whipped up by the east wind, and look how cloudless that sky is. Could not figure out how to upload a pic, so here is a link to it. http://randomimages....-sea/4560253787

There's been a stiff breeze all day too. Where's the convective snow machine aka the North Sea? The upper air temperatures are -9ºC over my location to the coast and it hasn't gone above 1ºC all day. Is it too cold for snow, as my mother used to say?

Edited February 1, 2012 by Iceni

[Heidi1984]

Evening all! Can't believe it's so NOT busy in here? This forum used to go mad when a possible snow event was on the cards!? Hmmm anyway where's my snow at!

[padtad]

snowing a little harder now in Hemsby - black table turning white