London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4

[willinkent]

Thought this might amuse a few people......http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/faversham/me13-7/daily-weather-forecast/323716?day=1 oh my gfs blips hey....hehe..... 2-3ft of snow tonight.....erm..... ok.... data error.....

Edited February 2, 2012 by willinkent

[Jo S]

It's visible on the Euro radar now (and has been since 1400)...N/NW of Holland...shouldn't be long before it arrives on the UK radar

Ive had my eye on that today as well :ph34r:

[95 Degrees]

Not sure what Peter Cockcroft was on about, snow to rain. What data was he using?

Likely the data from either Tuesday or Wednesday, hopefully the forecasts should be more like tonights models suggested when they update tomorrow

[abruzzi spur]

Not sure what Peter Cockcroft was on about, snow to rain. What data was he using?

I think Peter C was using the newspaper quiz approach where you change one word to another by changing one letter each time, like this:

SNOW

SNOT

SHOT

SHUT

SHUN

SHIN

CHIN

CAIN

RAIN

Easy!

AS

[flysurfer]

lol... to cold for rain

[bobbydog]

lol... to cold for rain

'too' - 'too cold for rain'

[Jo S]

Just stuck my head out of the back door,clouding up now,then quickly stuck it in again

[Whether Idle]

Everyone seems to be looking at sat/sun when we could have something Friday night!

Anyone got any thoughts on this? MO going for 2-5cm, Some might have more chance of snow on Friday than the weekend.

Also looking like a cold week next week.

Three bites at the cherry, thats how I see it.

Bite One: The showers tomorrow will be hit and miss. I reckon 3cms are possible towards the east Kent Massif (Challock-Paddlesworth) because the showers will be slow moving. But, most places will get nothing and a few spots may get a dusting.

Bite 2 is the "Dutch trough" - hmm, very difficult to call but perhaps our best shot at 2cms or so.

Third bite is the stalling front from the west - its such an atypical set up that my feeling is it will stall and sink south before getting here. So it could be 0, 1, 2 or 3 out of 3 by Sunday midday!! Chances of something decent at 25%. Chances of a dusting 75%. Chances of nothing 25%.

WI

[SMU]

thats 125%

S

[PureOcean]

The dew points at present just off the coast are still a little to low, its drying up any major activity, it is improving in locations closer to land but a lot of the current activity in Europe just does not make it over the north sea due to the -9c dew points etc... once these start coming rising then we will see penetration far easier. If you look at what comes off the coast of Holland it just fizzles out mid-north sea as the dew points eat it up! These are starting to improve but they have a lot more to do for the action to start.

I have just been checking some Germany dew points they are -20c etc... very low.

[Neilsouth]

Showers decaying in the north sea according to sat pic and they've stopped coming south

[A Wintry Mix]

Three bites at the cherry, thats how I see it.

Bite One: The showers tomorrow will be hit and miss. I reckon 3cms are possible towards the east Kent Massif (Challock-Paddlesworth) because the showers will be slow moving. But, most places will get nothing and a few spots may get a dusting.

Bite 2 is the "Dutch trough" - hmm, very difficult to call but perhaps our best shot at 2cms or so.

Third bite is the stalling front from the west - its such an atypical set up that my feeling is it will stall and sink south before getting here. So it could be 0, 1, 2 or 3 out of 3 by Sunday midday!! Chances of something decent at 25%. Chances of a dusting 75%. Chances of nothing 25%.

WI

Something to watch out for then, lets hope some on here get a treat as the winter uptil now has been pants!

[PureOcean]

I would say on a hunch from the charts that some snow could fall between 3am and 9am tomorrow along the Kent coast from Medway to Thanet and inland... its just going from my readings and expected changes. This could change in an hour but as I sit here now I would say that is most likely.

[A Wintry Mix]

When are the dew points meant to allow ppn to form?

[Met4Cast]

Why has everyone forgotten about tonights potential? Showers likely to develop from about 12-1am onwards.

P.S

Am I the only one who puts a cup of water on the window-seal outside to see if it freezes? Yes? Okay then

[steveinsussex]

westward movement not good for down here

[wchris_uk]

quick temp update for here

temp 0.2

dew -9.5

hum 48%

[Whether Idle]

Showers decaying in the north sea according to sat pic and they've stopped coming south

The showers that might affect Kent (and if they do they will be well scattered) will not show their hand til 3am ish and the window of opportunity closes by around midday Friday (before the much vaunted trough from the east may or may not clip Kent Fri night.). I would not worry about it Victor, and if you dont get any snow thats only to be expected, as thats the nature of scattered showers, so it will be no good moaning "I dont believe it!"

Edit - its down to the wind direction - the showers (if they show, big IF) will curve around East Anglia on and head into Kent on a NE or ENE wind. Pretty tenuous but possible.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Whether Idle

[yamkin]

Daily Express Front Page Headline For Tomorrow

-12c BRITAIN FACES SNOW CHAOS

[95 Degrees]

Temperatures not holding at 0/-0C/-1C like they sometimes do here, now -2.7C!

[k66yla]

Right time for me disappear, been lurking here most of the day. Got to get up at 04.30 for work so hoping to see some snow showers then.

[A Wintry Mix]

Why has everyone forgotten about tonights potential? Showers likely to develop from about 12-1am onwards.

P.S

Am I the only one who puts a cup of water on the window-seal outside to see if it freezes? Yes? Okay then

Done that with the dogs water earlier, emptied the ice about 4pm looked at 8 and its solid again.

Not forgotten about tonight just not expecting much!

[snowfall09]

Why has everyone forgotten about tonights potential? Showers likely to develop from about 12-1am onwards.

P.S

Am I the only one who puts a cup of water on the window-seal outside to see if it freezes? Yes? Okay then

haha i thought i was the only one that done that, why i didn't say anything

[loafer]

westward movement not good for down here

What westward movement - the models have moved it eastwards....?!

[PureOcean]

When are the dew points meant to allow ppn to form?

At present the charts have kept on getting this wrong, but things are changing gradually, so I would say we should start to see many increasing from -9c up towards more -3c over night.