Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[Methuselah]

I think Oxford is borderline to this. Oxford will see heavy snowfall though dumping large amounts in short timeframe but turning to rain after!

It's sometimes the areas that are borderline that and up getting the heaviest snow?

[Snowman31]

So where is the western extent of the snow now likely to be, where it is actually likely to stay as snow? (according to the 6z)

Edited February 3, 2012 by Snowman31

[MKN]

It's sometimes the areas that are borderline that and up getting the heaviest snow?

I imagine itl be the area thats most borderline whilst still the right side for snow that could see the largest totals. albeit more likely to see a thaw during sunday wereas the south east should stay colder

[TEITS]

One positive aspect of all of this is yesterday I was concerned the front would even reach me. I would much rather be on the W edge of snow to rain than if the models had shifted so far W the snow band only just hit me. Simple reason is experience tells me the front will end up probably around 50miles further W than the models predict.

[Beasterly]

From previous experiences, I know that Oxford does very well from borderline stuff. Indeed Pete, it is often those places that are borderline which get the heaviest precipitation.

Matt Hugo's forecast is interesting. He is predicting an all snow event for some western areas too!

[mulzy]

NAE 6z and GFS 6z makes London borderline I reckon (probably snow at first late on Saturday and into Sunday then drizzle by 9am-ish). Need a further push west (similar to ECM will be good).

Edited February 3, 2012 by mulzy

[snow freak]

this is unbearable. the charts are constantly changing from east to west. just pray they don't go any further east. as much as i love keeping a check on the charts, it can cause loads of anxiety when the snow event is borderline. i guess it doesn't help that this could be one of our last chances of getting some decent snow for this winter too. lets hope the models shift a little to the west and everyone gets to benefit from the white stuff. I think we all deserve it this winter as it's been so lousy up to now. good luck folks!

[Hammer]

Can I ask, what might thoughts be to a later pattern if the upcoming model runs, show a further eastwards shift in this front.

I appreciate shifts westward are what majority of the experienced members expect to happen in terms of model output and for some parts to therefore remain in the freezer.

But does a more eastwards shift and this front making it all the way through to the North Sea, mean a continuation of the cold would be less likely as well?

Edited February 3, 2012 by Hammer

[TEITS]

i guess it doesn't help that this could be one of our last chances of getting some decent snow for this winter too.

No chance, this could just be the starter before the main course. Plenty of winter left yet as the medium/long range looks very promising.

[snow freak]

sorry to be so dim but could someone tell me why, just over the other side of the channel the temps are -12c compared to -1c in se england. surely 30 miles of channel can't make that much difference, can it? northern france still comes under the atlantic influence the same as us surely?

[winter watcher]

NAE 6z and GFS 6z makes London borderline I reckon (probably snow at first late on Saturday and into Sunday then drizzle by 9am-ish). Need a further push west (similar to ECM will be good).

I think all this talk about rain is nonsense tbh

We are likley to see a snow event proceeded by rain for western england also northwestern areas where the milder air will mix out the cold air eventually.

Southern and eastern england in my mind will see a snow only event with inland areas away from the extreme coasts a given. Remember that the forcast states cold hanging on in east and south esat england even after the event has passed .

[kold weather]

One positive aspect of all of this is yesterday I was concerned the front would even reach me. I would much rather be on the W edge of snow to rain than if the models had shifted so far W the snow band only just hit me. Simple reason is experience tells me the front will end up probably around 50miles further W than the models predict.

Yeah I do agree with this. If worst comes to the worst I'd rather it be too far east than too far west, because at least that means we will get a snow event, even if it does turn too marginal towards the end.

Still there is plenty of time for more shifts...be it good or bad...

WW, I wish I was as confident as you...

[Bolton67]

sorry to be so dim but could someone tell me why, just over the other side of the channel the temps are -12c compared to -1c in se england. surely 30 miles of channel can't make that much difference, can it? northern france still comes under the atlantic influence the same as us surely?

A bit of water.

[leicsnow]

In Leicestershire, the furthest away in the Midlands from both the east and west coasts, I really don't know where I stand :huh:

I think with temperatures for me going up to 2c after the snow on sunday and 3 or 4c on monday I probably wont get any long lasting snow cover.

[TobyT]

No chance, this could just be the starter before the main course. Plenty of winter left yet as the medium/long range looks very promising.

My thoughts exactly !!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

In Leicestershire, the furthest away in the Midlands from both the east and west coasts, I really don't know where I stand :huh:

I think with temperatures for me going up to 2c after the snow on sunday and 3 or 4c on monday I probably wont get any long lasting snow cover.

You stand in the middle

[leicsnow]

You stand in the middle

Well I am within the warning areas of all the Meto's current warnings!

[dubmuffin]

I'm not sure what is worse - watching the snow pile up on Sat night only to wake up to a drizzly thaw, or watching the front stall west of me and getting nothing. Tough call. I know there are further possibilities but they are all in FI and we know tomorrow rarely comes

[Coast]

Tough call. I know there are further possibilities

Keep the faith!

[snow drift]

Well I am within the warning areas of all the Meto's current warnings!

You are in a good spot to my mind. You are not going to get the definitive answer you crave. I would go do something else for awhile and look again at 7ish. By then we will have had the 12z and be more confident to predict the outcome. Even then it is subject to change.

Dec 2010 Meto issued RED warning for dorset for an event that was due to hit in less than six hours.

What happened? It made a semi circle round us and west, North and east got 8-12 inches. We got about 1 cm.

Still I am over it now!!!!!

[kold weather]

I'm expecting an orange alert probably today due confidence of a long period of heavy snow. Even if it does change over most areas will get 5-10cms and thus even though it is happening overnight that is still a risk, especially to drivers who aren't used to those conditions.

[mulzy]

I think all this talk about rain is nonsense tbh

We are likley to see a snow event proceeded by rain for western england also northwestern areas where the milder air will mix out the cold air eventually.

Southern and eastern england in my mind will see a snow only event with inland areas away from the extreme coasts a given. Remember that the forcast states cold hanging on in east and south esat england even after the event has passed .

Nonsense it may be but I'm only reflecting what the latest models are indicating....

[SilverWolf]

Very novice question, if ppn very heavy at start, and western areas accumulate snow rapidly, will this reduce chances of it turning back to rain later? Or is the mild air behind to great to make this potential difference? Thanks SW.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Very novice question, if ppn very heavy at start, and western areas accumulate snow rapidly, will this reduce chances of it turning back to rain later? Or is the mild air behind to great to make this potential difference? Thanks SW.

Yep, what about evaporative cooling??

[nick sussex]

I think a positive out of the weekend is that its not like one of those deep lows moving up with lots of very mild sw winds ready to move in and wash away the snow.

The air behind the front is still relatively cold and if skies clear temps should still slip down to freezing.