Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[john mac]

what the chance of snow in south cambridgeshire tomorrow night and how much if snow arrives

what the chance of snow in south cambridgeshire tomorrow night and how much if snow arrives

You will get snow 5-10cms may be a bit more

[Heisenberg]

after the 06z pretty much everyone wants it west-

S

So does that make any difference as to the SE getting pasted or does it just mean its going to be slower moving through the region?

[SMU]

So does that make any difference as to the SE getting pasted or does it just mean its going to be slower moving through the region?

It means more people in the snow for longer-

its forward speed hasnt changed just the angle with which the warmer air spreads east

S

Edited February 3, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Heisenberg]

It means more people in the snow for longer-

its forward speed hasnt changed just the angle with which the warmer air spreads east

S

Right, got it. Thanks Steve, Good news all round then....

[john mac]

It means more people in the snow for longer-

its forward speed hasnt changed just the angle with which the warmer air spreads east

S

What do think for amounts steve?

[Cheshire Freeze]

One side of me actually dubious as to how far west this system is going to get, despite what the models are suggesting. NAE is marginally west on the 12z, a shift west on the 18z would have some nervous far SE folk. High precip totals for NW England down into the West Midlands on the 12z NAE.....BUT these areas face snow to rain. A shift west would see these areas come into the fray IMO, any shift east and it's game over for these areas.

Edited February 3, 2012 by CreweCold

[SMU]

A warm front is typically I guess 3/4 to 7/8 mm

So on a converstion of 1:10 ( could be a bit more)

3-6 average- 8-10 in the sweet spots + 25% on that over the hills as ~

S

[lorenzo]

what the chance of snow in south cambridgeshire tomorrow night and how much if snow arrives

what the chance of snow in south cambridgeshire tomorrow night and how much if snow arrives

what the chance of snow in south cambridgeshire tomorrow night and how much if snow arrives

what the chance of snow in south cambridgeshire tomorrow night and how much if snow arrives

Second Verse.... same as the first... and.....

[liam300]

Aren't the latest precipitation charts showing that it will miss most of south an some of south east?

[SMU]

MY update **

I am changing my Perma snowline to the following

Kent

London

East Sussex

Oxford ( + EAST of Ox)

east midlands

up to Lincs...

those counties DIRECTLY to the left of these are borderline. in terms of will start as snow- may end as sleet

[Weather Wizard]

Aren't the latest precipitation charts showing that it will miss most of south an some of south east?

No quite the opposte

[Heisenberg]

MY update **

I am changing my Perma snowline to the following

Kent

London

East Sussex

Oxford ( + EAST of Ox)

east midlands

up to Lincs...

those counties DIRECTLY to the left of these are borderline. in terms of will start as snow- may end as sleet

Where does that leave little old Hertfordshire? As you can tell my geography isnt great...i think we are slightly NW of london

[NickR]

MY update **

I am changing my Perma snowline to the following

Kent

London

East Sussex

Oxford ( + EAST of Ox)

east midlands

up to Lincs...

those counties DIRECTLY to the left of these are borderline. in terms of will start as snow- may end as sleet

And north?

[Tim Bland]

12Z less keen on stalling it in the SE on Sunday now.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Tim Bland

[johnholmes]

Where does that leave little old Hertfordshire? As you can tell my geography isnt great...i think we are slightly NW of london

And you work in London-I shudder for the new generation!

[knocker]

Saturday

[Tim Bland]

Where does that leave little old Hertfordshire? As you can tell my geography isnt great...i think we are slightly NW of london

Well we are east of East Mids and east of Oxen so should be OK!

Find it odd thogh that someone who is interested in the weather doesn't know where they are on a map!

Edited February 3, 2012 by Tim Bland

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I am available for personal snow forecasts for right outside your front door, £50.00 a forecast, and judging by the amount of will it snow on my head requests I will make a mint :-)

[kold weather]

MY update **

I am changing my Perma snowline to the following

Kent

London

East Sussex

Oxford ( + EAST of Ox)

east midlands

up to Lincs...

those counties DIRECTLY to the left of these are borderline. in terms of will start as snow- may end as sleet

Yeah Steve, seems like the 12z NAE is a touch colder whilst the 12z GFS is ever so slightly milder at the surface. I'd generally agree with that line and I can't imagine the models will shift much...but in truth who knows how it will pan out!

[EML Network]

NAE +36

+48

Edited February 3, 2012 by EML Network

[West is Best]

MY update **

I am changing my Perma snowline to the following

Kent

London

East Sussex

Oxford ( + EAST of Ox)

east midlands

up to Lincs...

those counties DIRECTLY to the left of these are borderline. in terms of will start as snow- may end as sleet

A gentle and very friendly wager with you Steve that nowhere in England below 300mASL sees anything more than a couple of hours of snow, as it turns to sleet then rain.

The only hope from this front to my mind was if it stalled and that is looking less likely. The angle of attack is not traditional for snow, and however cold the air in advance I suspect this will not be enough to prevent dewpoints rising to the point where snowfall is melted away by rain.

Don't mean to be annoying but it reminds me when I was young and lived in Rutland. We had superb snow one evening and the next morning we woke expecting snowball fights and fun. It had all gone. Similar setup to this one.

Note: short term snow forecasting isn't my forte :-)

Edited February 3, 2012 by West is Best

[SussexmarkyMark]

NAE +36

+48

Do you have the chart in the middle of those two ? The first is 18:00 to 00:00 then the second is 06:00 to 12:00. It misses out the crucial six hours overnight. Thanks

[snow drift]

I am available for personal snow forecasts for right outside your front door, £50.00 a forecast, and judging by the amount of will it snow on my head requests I will make a mint :-)

Why would anyone spend £50 to find out if it was going to snow on your head? :p

[johnholmes]

Do you have the chart in the middle of those two ? The first is 18:00 to 00:00 then the second is 06:00 to 12:00. It misses out the crucial six hours overnight. Thanks

grief can you not interpolate that Mark?

[IDO]

GFS: borderline for the SE:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=36;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

The above is Saturday at Midnight. Below 3am Sunday

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=39;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

Best for NE Saturday and E. Anglia Sat evening/Sunday early hours. By Sunday 9am:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=45;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

Still in Kent at 12am:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=48;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

Sunday 6pm:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=54;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

Still hanging around SE corner. GFS has it stalling over this area but others not keen...

6am Monday:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=66;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

9pm Monday:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=84;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

Still going...

Tuesday 6am:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=90;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

I dont believe it, but for fun.