Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[summer blizzard]

This is knife edge stuff, but i would expect upgrades as nowcasting kicks in. The latest outputs are showing the mild sector being mixed out so sub zero 850 air remains as the front passes through. With such deep surface cold, you'd fancy that would be sufficient to maintain snow. We'll find out tomorrow I guess!

ps: what time is the front due to hit west yorkshire? I've heard it may be saturday afternoon/evening, but does anyone have a more accurate time when it will start. I am due to be driving on the motorway at about 5pm, so wondering whether it will be heavy then?

This is knife edge stuff, but i would expect upgrades as nowcasting kicks in. The latest outputs are showing the mild sector being mixed out so sub zero 850 air remains as the front passes through. With such deep surface cold, you'd fancy that would be sufficient to maintain snow. We'll find out tomorrow I guess!

ps: what time is the front due to hit west yorkshire? I've heard it may be saturday afternoon/evening, but does anyone have a more accurate time when it will start. I am due to be driving on the motorway at about 5pm, so wondering whether it will be heavy then?

Models show snow over West Yorkshire at 3pm, snow will be heaviest in the first half of the event as we are near the triple point at the beggining so 3-9 will be pretty bad, snow should be lighter afterward.

[snow freak]

well i think i'm having an early night tonight as tomorrow is going to be a busy day/evening/night and I don't think i'll be sleeping much. Northampton is down as one of the sweet spots, so hopefully i will catch the snowfest on my camcorder. good luck everyone.

[A.J]

Only just had opportunity to view the 12Zs and it appears the NAE did trend slightly further W compared to the 06Z. Based on all my years of following the models the NAE has often been the most accurate at this timeframe.

This seems a fairly accurate prediction.

http://expert-images...020512_0312.gif

Snowfall amounts appear to favour locations such as Lincs, Norfolk.

http://expert-images...020512_0312.gif

http://expert-images...020506_0312.gif

Front has moved further E compared to this morning/yesterday and is now centred across Norfolk-Kent.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVI89.png

However please take into account that even on the day itself the front might be slower and progress slightly less E than what the models suggest. So if you're living in the E midlands/E Anglia/SE not only do you need to follow the snow on the radar arriving in your region but keep on eye on the front slowing.

A solid post and the voice of reason amongst some of the stuff that gets posted

I would expect the cold pool to put up much more resistance that modeled and have thought it for a couple of days.....I'd expect anywhere from inland Wales eastwards to see snow initially, and east of Birmingham to see a near as damn it all snow event with some mixing down towards the south coast west of Southampton...I still don't think even the hi-res outputs are factoring in the strength of the incumbent cold pool or are factoring in the effects of SW/open low feature progged to slip SSE across the west country....My hunch is that the snowline will arch from the south coast back through to the north midlands as the SW/open slips through

[TEITS]

Have to be honest Steve im not a big fan of any the snowfall accumulation maps whether its the NAE or the GFS.

At the moment my punt would be generally around 10cm but if the front stalls between Norfolk-Kent someone could get 20cm in that area. However if the models have moved the front too far E and the band of snow remains across E Anglia/SE and doesn't move out to the N Sea then someone could get even more than 20cm. The dewpoints/temps look very favourable especially for E parts of E Anglia/Kent.

Personally what im hoping for is when the W edge of the snow band is around 30 miles to my W im then hoping it grinds to a halt. As the snow will also be falling in E Anglia/SE then for all of us in this region will benefit. Im sure members further W than me will disagree!

[Chess01]

Whats the Sitution for the north midlands around the stoke area

[PersianPaladin]

Dew-points and surface temperatures are all great for the spine of the country as far north as southern Northumberland, judging by the latest charts.

The problem is the movement of this cold pool at 850hpa heights and how quickly the shortwave pushes it eastward. I concur with others that it will come down to very short-term casting. It may well end up in sleet and icy rain for most places, apart from the south-east.

[Stuie]

Remember Dec 2010, the UKMO issued an emergency warning for East Anglia at midday on the same day it dumped the most snow I have seen in years. This really is that close to call imo, inflated warnings or a retraction. Scared to see tomorrow`s forecast. Yes I am after snow.

[Stuie]

Looking at the ECM, If this front really stalls then Sunday could be snowy all day? Certainly colder on Sunday than Saturday for East Anglia.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Sinth

[stromanis]

Remember Dec 2010, the UKMO issued an emergency warning for East Anglia at midday on the same day it dumped the most snow I have seen in years. This really is that close to call imo, inflated warnings or a retraction. Scared to see tomorrow`s forecast. Yes I am after snow.

It seems these days that there is a warning for every thing, posible 2cm of snow and a warning goes out, the press heavy snow comming the world is going to end,the met have issued a red,orange or yellow warning talk about cry wolf. We did not have this sort of thing in the 80's it is winter it is cold and gets windy from time to time thats what winter is. Are we all to blame for all these warnings and the way things are now? yes we are because when it is bad and we dont think the warnings are at the right level/right time we all moan and complain.

[Stuie]

I am Scottish, moved to England when I was 11. As a kid I witnessed copious amounts of snow and frozen pipes every year. I cannot remember my parents saying "Brace yourself, going to be a..."

I suppose everything is soo PC these days, health and safety is paramount. I wonder what the UKMO would say about the -30 temps in the Ukraine with metres of snow drifts.

They would have to make a new scale, amber doesn`t really cut it in the scheme of things. I know we opted out of joining the Euro and I bet the met office is pleased that we do not have their problem either.

[stromanis]

I am Scottish, moved to England when I was 11. As a kid I witnessed copious amounts of snow and frozen pipes every year. I cannot remember my parents saying "Brace yourself, going to be a..."

I suppose everything is soo PC these days, health and safety is paramount. I wonder what the UKMO would say about the -30 temps in the Ukraine with metres of snow drifts.

They would have to make a new scale, amber doesn`t really cut it in the scheme of things. I know we opted out of joining the Euro and I bet the met office is pleased that we do not have their problem either.

You hit the nail on the head.

[Frosty_wsm]

I suppose if something goes wrong tomorrow then maybe Tuesday would bring a smile.

that chart wouldn't lift my spirits lol, not only am I in for loads of rain tomorrow, that chart also shows my location missing out again.

[stevofunnelcl]

I must agree. People just used to get on with it... whatever the weather threw up. What's all this level 3 alert stuff

It's winter... if there is a risk of freezing rain/ice/sleet/snow then people should be ready to fall onto their backsides

Yes, there will be some tricky conditions around, but again, it's winter, and people should be prepared

[Eskimo]

I must agree. People just used to get on with it... whatever the weather threw up. What's all this level 3 alert stuff

It's winter... if there is a risk of freezing rain/ice/sleet/snow then people should be ready to fall onto their backsides

Yes, there will be some tricky conditions around, but again, it's winter, and people should be prepared

Don't go blaming anyone if you have a nasty accident due to the snow and are seriously injured because no one told you it was coming.

[Mesoscale]

should be a good time im at home in Watford for the weekend but i dont know how i will get back to Soton.

I hope this doesn't fall apart at the last second and turn into a rain fest.

[Eskimo]

Been looking at the temperature profile for Penzance. 9C and heavy rain, glad I don't live there. I mean I'm sure it's a lovely place and all but I do love the snow

Edited February 3, 2012 by Eskimo

[Bristawl Si]

Shaping up to be one of the crappiest winters in Bristol of the last 20 years - no lying snow so far, in fact a couple of hours of light wet snow that was so feeble it didn't settle on cars - one week of cold and now cold rain for tomorrow - just about sums it up!

Bring on an early warm Spring.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Bristle boy

[weather eater]

Bit odd really, despite the early cold last winter we saw very little snow here. This year its been very mild, with just a couple of small falls, but it won’t take a lot of snow tomorrow to beat the year before hands down.

[Snowy Easterly]

i feel sorry for those who look like missing out on the snow, however im sure your time will come

[Eskimo]

My best punt at this. With all the available data I had.

[Zakos]

Bit odd really, despite the early cold last winter we saw very little snow here. This year its been very mild, with just a couple of small falls, but it won’t take a lot of snow tomorrow to beat the year before hands down.

same here weather eater. I missed out on so much snow last year. I always do well from scandi highs though. This event if it goes as forecast it will easily surpass last year for me aswell.

[FreezeManiac]

Looking pretty crap for me oh well

[huntso]

Last year we sat in an oasis of green against a desert of white, had so many let downs over the past few years and think this would be the final straw if we have another rain fest

[willinkent]

i reckon parts of kent and other places north ie essex 20-25cm...... we shall see.....depends on topography, the front, if it will turn to sleet/rain etc...... we will see this time tomorrow......

[Supercell 89]

I have to agree with Roger. I'm seriously not buying its just going to rain across SW England. Its -3c here already (colder than what than the -1c Meto said) so we could be in for -5c tonight and its barley got above freezing for the last 3days.

This airmass moving in is only 5c-8c and its not got a raging jet-stream pushing it through and its coming up against air that's -1c to 1c and also very dry. I can see this weather front really dragging its heels and taking a lot longer to push through and most of South West England seeing transitional snow even at lower levels for a time before it turns to rain as a result.