Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[snow freak]

i really hope those of you in the west also end up with a mainly snow event together with us in the midlands and east. the whole country could do with some cheering up this winter.

[MKN]

Any comment on the latest fax? two very different opinions on the +36 in the midlands thread, would be nice for steve m or teits to give their view

[Snowy Easterly]

My best punt at this. With all the available data I had.

well im just in that pink area, but i reckon the Chilterns will do really well out of this

[weatherobsuk]

Most charts obviously don't factor into account topography (heights) aswell as drifting issues, ie a south/southwesterly facing slope is going to see more accumulations out of this than easterly facing sides due to wind vectors. So even if you are only forecasted to have 5-8cm such as where I am, many roads are orientated SW-NE over open moorland and can easily see well over 20cm given the exposure alone.

[TEITS]

Any comment on the latest fax? two very different opinions on the +36 in the midlands thread, would be nice for steve m or teits to give their view

The +36 fax is excellent for the E midlands but less so for the W Midlands. Looks to me as though during the night the snow will turn to rain across the W Midlands but could remain as snow towards the E Midlands.

Ideally for the Midlands in general a shift W is required.

By the way im going to be comparing the 12Z/18Z NAE live during the next 30mins and will post back with the results.

Edited February 3, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Bonjangle]

How is south east wales looking for snow tomorrow / rain event ? any input would be much appriciated .thanks

[Snowmad79]

The +36 fax is excellent for the E midlands but less so for the W Midlands. Looks to me as though during the night the snow will turn to rain across the W Midlands but could remain as snow towards the E Midlands.

Ideally for the Midlands in general a shift W is required.

By the way im going to be comparing the 12Z/18Z NAE live during the next 30mins and will post back with the results.

This isn't what Matt Hugo has been tweeting since the Fax came out.

MattHugo81 Matthew Hugo

@

@slinky1989 - The trend is still there for the fronts to occlude with a secondary low & for them to stall down the spine of Eng = snow!

47 minutes ago

Not sure what his credentials are but from what he has said it doesn't seem like rain on the west side unless you live on the western coasts.

[Eskimo]

How is south east wales looking for snow tomorrow / rain event ? any input would be much appriciated .thanks

Transitioning snow to rain I should imagine.

[TEITS]

At the moment none of the models suggest the front will stall across the spine of the country but will become stationary towards Norfolk-Kent. Im not saying this will be the exact location but at the moment this is what the models suggest.

Anyway back to the NAE and although its only 3hrs out I have a feeling a slight shift W might occur on this run. Having said this don't shoot the messenger if im wrong because really I should wait until the NAE is at least 12hrs into the run.

Edited February 3, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[MKN]

The +36 fax is excellent for the E midlands but less so for the W Midlands. Looks to me as though during the night the snow will turn to rain across the W Midlands but could remain as snow towards the E Midlands.

Ideally for the Midlands in general a shift W is required.

By the way im going to be comparing the 12Z/18Z NAE live during the next 30mins and will post back with the results.

Make sure you recognise what im now calling the middle midlands, east or west doesnt really do me any favours when considering people opinions of where it will or wont snow... see pic

[Bonjangle]

Transitioning snow to rain I should imagine.

Thank you , looking forward to it .

[alijoe]

Not going to snow for me (story of our lives here) but wish all of those that get the lovely white stuff, lots and lots of fun. Enjoy and keep us all informed. Still looking forward to watching all your comments tommorow. Be safe.

[weather eater]

The trouble with trying to work out what may happen here, is that I’m right in the middle. In high peak so plenty of elevation. Close to the border of Cheshire, the center of Manchester is only 15ish miles away, Sheffield is only 28miles. Chesterfield is also about 28miles away, but on the east side of the Pennines. If I want to post in the regional threads I can never be sure if its best to go for South Yorkshire, North West, West or East Midlands.

[Snowy Easterly]

At the moment none of the models suggest the front will stall across the spine of the country but will become stationary towards Norfolk-Kent. Im not saying this will be the exact location but at the moment this is what the models suggest.

Anyway back to the NAE and although its only 3hrs out I have a feeling a slight shift W might occur on this run. Having said this don't shoot the messenger if im wrong because really I should wait until the NAE is at least 12hrs into the run.

So if it doesn't stall how long will it snow for across the spine of the country ?

Edited February 3, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[danm]

At the moment none of the models suggest the front will stall across the spine of the country but will become stationary towards Norfolk-Kent. Im not saying this will be the exact location but at the moment this is what the models suggest.

Anyway back to the NAE and although its only 3hrs out I have a feeling a slight shift W might occur on this run. Having said this don't shoot the messenger if im wrong because really I should wait until the NAE is at least 12hrs into the run.

Doesn't it look quite a bit further west at 6hrs?

[Summer Sun]

Just captured the latest BBC forecast from the News Channel they seem to be bringing the snow in earlier now 15:00 for the North now

[jean91]

snowing now in Paris first snow of winter.Not much but well enough to whiten all the ground.Should quickly clear leaving a cloudness sky and temp going well down forecasted at -6c for center Paris and -8c in suburbs

Will be slipery tomorrow morning!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited February 3, 2012 by jean91

[jean91]

[MKN]

precip looks to be increased by 1 or 2mm widely on the NAE tonight

[Harve]

Bit odd really, despite the early cold last winter we saw very little snow here. This year its been very mild, with just a couple of small falls, but it won’t take a lot of snow tomorrow to beat the year before hands down.

Really? To the south-east of you, nearer Matlock, I saw the most level snow in my life on 1st-2nd December at ~60-70cm. Perhaps December 2009 and January 2010 would've beaten it if the whole month had been windless! It certainly wasn't a disappointing winter.

This winter has also been good if you ignore the lack of snowfall sticking around (although just 10 minutes away snow's been lying for an entire week), with numerous small falls. The number of days of sleet or snow will make the winter seem far / even better than it has been. I guess altitude has helped here.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012020318-2-24.png?18

slower at 24

yesss... stall out please!

S

[NickR]

NAE 18z definitely slower/further W - compare the 18z at 12 hrs and the 12z at 18hrs. 50 or more miles difference.

[TEITS]

Slight improvement on the NAE so far at +18 in as much as upper temps are around 1C colder across Midlands, E Anglia plus its appears at a sharper angle than the 12Z.

[cyclonic happiness]

Make sure you recognise what im now calling the middle midlands, east or west doesnt really do me any favours when considering people opinions of where it will or wont snow... see pic

Aww don't start that 'where does the east and west midlands start?' debate again, we have it every year when it comes to snow

And btw, Nuneaton is in the east midlands, you can tell by the accent

[Stuie]

http://modeles.meteo...318-2-24.png?18

slower at 24

yesss... stall out please!

S

If it stalls Steve, what happens then for EA and the SE?