Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[danm]

Where does that leave little old Hertfordshire? As you can tell my geography isnt great...i think we are slightly NW of london

Hertfordshire should be fine as it is directly north of west London. Possibly some marginality towards NW Herts, but the bulk of Herts should see it as snow.

[kold weather]

A gentle and very friendly wager with you Steve that nowhere in England below 300mASL sees anything more than a couple of hours of snow, as it turns to sleet then rain.

I'll 100% take that wager myself, I'm very confident that for example EA will hold onto snow the whole way through, as will probably quite alot of the SE.

This is a VERY rare type of set-up, not sure your really understanding how uncommon it actually is, I'm struggling to find any charts in the past that evolve like this with the front coming in this angle with a LP developing.

What I will say West is that your probably correct for a decnet percentage of the country, but that statement is near madness...sorry mate.

[danm]

Do you have the chart in the middle of those two ? The first is 18:00 to 00:00 then the second is 06:00 to 12:00. It misses out the crucial six hours overnight. Thanks

42hrs:

[i luv snow]

I'll 100% take that wager myself, I'm very confident that for example EA will hold onto snow the whole way through, as will probably quite alot of the SE.

This is a VERY rare type of set-up, not sure your really understanding how uncommon it actually is, I'm struggling to find any charts in the past that evolve like this with the front coming in this angle with a LP developing.

What I will say West is that your probably correct for a decnet percentage of the country, but that statement is near madness...sorry mate.

Me too and 100% agreed... lots of places in England below 300m will see that even with latest runs. Any shift west, even more of it!

[SussexmarkyMark]

grief can you not interpolate that Mark?

Not really, sorry. Struggle with the colours, (blues, pinks, whatever they are) so have to save then to desktop and get a friend to tell me which are rain and which are snow, so the full set would help, then could work out if it stays as snow or turns to rain. That's a daltonist for you unfortunately

[johnholmes]

Not really, sorry. Struggle with the colours, (blues, pinks, whatever they are) so have to save then to desktop and get a friend to tell me which are rain and which are snow, so the full set would help, then could work out if it stays as snow or turns to rain. That's a daltonist for you unfortunately

this link gives you the numbers, with green showing where the model is suggesting snow will accumulate, the other lines show what it thinks the zero isotherm will be

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfsbasic;sess=b5be0ddaa6cf81ef15122aa90789f7de

ah but of course where are you-try a pin just nw of London?

[sparky1972]

A gentle and very friendly wager with you Steve that nowhere in England below 300mASL sees anything more than a couple of hours of snow, as it turns to sleet then rain.

The only hope from this front to my mind was if it stalled and that is looking less likely. The angle of attack is not traditional for snow, and however cold the air in advance I suspect this will not be enough to prevent dewpoints rising to the point where snowfall is melted away by rain.

Don't mean to be annoying but it reminds me when I was young and lived in Rutland. We had superb snow one evening and the next morning we woke expecting snowball fights and fun. It had all gone. Similar setup to this one.

Note: short term snow forecasting isn't my forte :-)

wow, after reading that i might do that drive to gloustershire tomorrow morning and come back to lincs on sunday morning, guess i will miss the snow both ways.

[liam300]

No quite the opposte

So another shift to the west could see most of the south inclusive of Hampshire deep in snow?

[West is Best]

I'll 100% take that wager myself, I'm very confident that for example EA will hold onto snow the whole way through, as will probably quite alot of the SE.

This is a VERY rare type of set-up, not sure your really understanding how uncommon it actually is, I'm struggling to find any charts in the past that evolve like this with the front coming in this angle with a LP developing.

It's quite normal for fronts to come down from the north-west though KW no? What's rare is for it to hit such a cold pool. But unless everything in the UK has changed this isn't a typical snow attack direction and I suspect snow will readily turn to sleet and rain. I may be very wrong :-) Hope so.

I think the occasion to which I referred may have been January or February 1977, and that was a better angle of attack too.

I do have a track record of being out on these short-range events (even if I fancy myself on medium and long-tem amateur dabling!)

Edited February 3, 2012 by West is Best

[whitestuff]

Well! I've seen so many forecast maps now that i think my area..... north westish Brum is going to have a dry saturday night and up to 6" of snow,with rain and frost!

I am reminded of last winter with the last blast of snow that was to come from a storm coming up from france. For two days we were told in the west mids we were to get the brunt of if it, but I sat and watched the rainfall radar as it tracked NE and missed us completely!

So what I'm saying is this, don't take it too seriously if someone says your town is about to get dumped on tomorrow night. We will only know the true position as it happens, this is a nowcast situation! Good luck to everyone who is desperate for a bit of the whitestuff! I think we're all mad

Edited February 3, 2012 by whitestuff

[MKN]

So another shift to the west could see most of the south inclusive of Hampshire deep in snow?

Yup atm looks as though the front stalls just to the east of the uk ideally we had it stall over the south east, the knock on effect would also mean more snow being retained over the rest of the uk which would help in any other marginal situations like the one the gfs shows monday evening. West is best for everyone here as things stand

[Jayces]

Guess we will all know what has happened in 36 hours.

[IDO]

All very changeable at the moment. Compare the (usually unreliable) 06z:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=06;ext=141;file=tmp850;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

At T135 the 850s are in the Europe mainland. Current run:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=135;file=tmp850;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

This has pushed the possible snow event of mid-week west but gives the E/SE a better chance of snow from the East. Potential seen at T144:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=144;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It's quite normal for fronts to come down from the north-west though KW no? What's rare is for it to hit such a cold pool. But unless everything in the UK has changed this isn't a typical snow attack direction and I suspect snow will readily turn to sleet and rain. I may be very wrong :-) Hope so.

I think the occasion to which I referred may have been January or February 1977, and that was a better angle of attack too.

I do have a track record of being out on these short-range events (even if I fancy myself on medium and long-tem amateur dabling!)

Lol your medium range forecasting tool can't have a great record either forecasting the Atlantic to steam roll through this weekend.

Edited February 3, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Beasterly]

It's quite normal for fronts to come down from the north-west though KW no? What's rare is for it to hit such a cold pool. But unless everything in the UK has changed this isn't a typical snow attack direction and I suspect snow will readily turn to sleet and rain. I may be very wrong :-) Hope so.

I think the occasion to which I referred may have been January or February 1977, and that was a better angle of attack too.

I do have a track record of being out on these short-range events (even if I fancy myself on medium and long-tem amateur dabling!)

Yes, Met Office got this totally wrong.......all those warnings will soon disappear

[WINTRY WALES]

It's quite normal for fronts to come down from the north-west though KW no? What's rare is for it to hit such a cold pool. But unless everything in the UK has changed this isn't a typical snow attack direction and I suspect snow will readily turn to sleet and rain. I may be very wrong :-) Hope so.

I think the occasion to which I referred may have been January or February 1977, and that was a better angle of attack too.

I do have a track record of being out on these short-range events (even if I fancy myself on medium and long-tem amateur dabling!)

Why??? You have been totally wrong over the last week or two.

You Completley went against SM even though quite often your posts were backed up through the models!!!

Edited February 3, 2012 by WINTRY WALES

[West is Best]

Lol your medium range forecasting tool can't have a great record either forecasting the Atlantic to steam roll through this weekend.

Don't remember using the word steamroll?

And yes the Atlantic is coming back so not sure what point this is making?

[SMU]

MUCH better 12's as expected for the frontal ground-

NAE looked excellent at 24 & 30-

GFS good

UKMO excellent- surface temp of 0c for ALL of sunday MAXIMA in the SE Corner & only 1c for the home counties-

WIB- its all snow mate & ITS COMING TOMORROW- The SKEWt's are great

[West is Best]

Why??? You have been totally wrong over the last week or two.

Pretty accurate I thought. Ah well, goes to show there's many ways to look at the facts!

[IDO]

I like this run:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=171;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

Friday afternoon above; rush hour below:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120203;time=12;ext=174;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=51ca4606d037129a0a81455fff9d1f13;

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Don't remember using the word steamroll?

And yes the Atlantic is coming back so not sure what point this is making?

LOL ok maybe not steam roll, but you certainly wasn't predicting the cold to stick around were you!!, it's ok we are only amateurs lol

[Rollo]

I have a lot of respect for WIB,but I have to say that I cannot see where he is coming from at the moment.

[Coast]

Handbags ladies!

[Beasterly]

I have a lot of respect for WIB,but I have to say that I cannot see where he is coming from at the moment.

Me too but I found that out last week!

[WINTRY WALES]

Pretty accurate I thought. Ah well, goes to show there's many ways to look at the facts!

Facts are even the word Barlett was mentioned by you in na few posts.

No disrespect to you either by the way as your forcasting skills far out weigh my own!!

Edited February 3, 2012 by WINTRY WALES