Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

Seriously tho y have u left the iow blank? Are we getting nothing?

Sorry mods but had to ask!

Sorry.

Wet snow/sleet at best. Uppers of -1 not conclusive for snow.

[Kentish Kiwi]

A quick snowfall total maps based on the NAE

BROWN- Heavy snowfall, may be wet in nature with sleet at the coasts, 15-17mm projected. Large snowfall variations, around 5-20cm of snow. Highest accumulations further west around 150/200m+, coastal regions around 5cm at best. Perhaps turning to rain up to 10 miles from the coast.

ORANGE- Heaviest accumulation expected here, 15/18mm projected. Zero marginality further south and east, perhaps slight wet snow on low ground in western parts of Yorkshire for a time. Accumulation widespread 13-21cm expected.

GREEN- Heavy snowfall, margin for error for western extent of snow. As a result the further west the more likely to see wet snow. 11/14mm projected. 5-15cm of snow, highest accumulation in the east of the region

PINK- Moderate to heavy snowfall, 10/13mm projected. Zero marginality. Widespread 11-16cm expected. Less accumulations in the far south east, due to weakening of the precipitation.

Am I the only one that finds the estimates here a little exaggerated in terms of overall totals? Or have I missed something from the 18z's...?

[damianslaw]

The precipitation charts often underestimate amounts of precip in all situations when fronts come in from the west - one factor they don't forecast very well is evaporative cooling - thanks to the high ground here we often see precip of a very heavy localised nature in central parts of the district. Wouldn't be surprised if the snow comes down very heavy for quite a lengthy time here - so not surprised to see the 'brown' forecast - spot on places with height in these parts will see a very heavy dose of snow I imagine - more so than many other hilly parts of the country - its normal business for the lakes to see wettest conditions in England whenever fronts move in from the atlantic - so the heavier the better I say as evaporative cooling will really take hold. Watch the likes the Kirkstone pass and shap fell to be the earliest victims to road closures tomorrow- and other roads such as A591 will be badly affected.

But all the news reports will be about the east I imagine. Yes we are likely to see sleet/wet snow later in the day but this shouldn't last too long.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

old money always went further dont you think lol.

I'll be interested in your reports tomorrow Peter, I would be very satisfied in Nottingham beats Consett in terms of depth.

It would be a rare thing.

I miss Consett lol never been to Consett since last July.

Hope you get some snow, but I want more!

[peterf]

cup of tea at Hartside cafe around dinnertime.then i'll turn round and floor it back home lol.

[marksp]

Really? To the south-east of you, nearer Matlock, I saw the most level snow in my life on 1st-2nd December at ~60-70cm. Perhaps December 2009 and January 2010 would've beaten it if the whole month had been windless! It certainly wasn't a disappointing winter.

This winter has also been good if you ignore the lack of snowfall sticking around (although just 10 minutes away snow's been lying for an entire week), with numerous small falls. The number of days of sleet or snow will make the winter seem far / even better than it has been. I guess altitude has helped here.

Hi I too enjoyed the 60cm last winter i live in matlock and have never seen that depth of level snow overnight, just everywhere, no drifting. Who would thought a humber streamer could of delivered that.

At time John Holmes gave a good detailed write up.

anyway looks like Matlock going to have plenty of snow again over the weekend.

mark

[Zakos]

Well you sir are one lucky person.

thanks, it does indeed look like i will be. I have said for days my area was the sweet spot. Its good now though there has been a shift west to allow more of the country in on the fun.

[peterf]

I'll be interested in your reports tomorrow Peter, I would be very satisfied in Nottingham beats Consett in terms of depth.

It would be a rare thing.

I miss Consett lol never been to Consett since last July.

Hope you get some snow, but I want more!

no probs Mark i'll be online all day.we dont play until sunday.

[lightningst]

so what time we looking at the snow starting in hull on the east coast ?

[snowwonder]

As Luton is about 150m asl I feel we may be in a sweet spot too! What do others think? Anyone got a link with Luton airport and their thoughts!! Fingers crossed for everyone.

[Ross B]

The snow has started oop north, good luck tomorrow Englanders

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

no probs Mark i'll be online all day.we dont play until sunday.

Just as well because if it was a 3pm Saturday it could have been called off.

On that note I'm wondering which fixtures could be affected.

I think the matches at Stoke, West Brom, Wigan and Man City could see some snow, the rest look ok.

Could be a few casualties in the Championship too, and some lower league games are already postponed due to frozen pitches.

[Biggin]

.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Biggin

[weatherobsuk]

Another quick interest to note is that the snow will be moisture ladened, meaning it'll be the typical 'heavier' stuff once accumulated than we see from easterly setups in recent years. The heavier stuff is easier to shift for the gritters but with ground temps already 'permafrosted' to use a better word the grit is going to be at the limitations of what it's able to do. Any settling snow after the gritters have been and gone will be tricky for tyre traction to get a hold.

[Hughsey]

Being in cambs I am in a pretty prime location for once, looking forward to seeing some snow

[Bolton67]

A quick snowfall total maps based on the NAE

BROWN- Heavy snowfall, may be wet in nature with sleet at the coasts, 15-17mm projected. Large snowfall variations, around 5-20cm of snow. Highest accumulations further west around 150/200m+, coastal regions around 5cm at best. Perhaps turning to rain up to 10 miles from the coast.

ORANGE- Heaviest accumulation expected here, 15/18mm projected. Zero marginality further south and east, perhaps slight wet snow on low ground in western parts of Yorkshire for a time. Accumulation widespread 13-21cm expected.

GREEN- Heavy snowfall, margin for error for western extent of snow. As a result the further west the more likely to see wet snow. 11/14mm projected. 5-15cm of snow, highest accumulation in the east of the region

PINK- Moderate to heavy snowfall, 10/13mm projected. Zero marginality. Widespread 11-16cm expected. Less accumulations in the far south east, due to weakening of the precipitation.

According to that, i'm in the Orange, Green and Pink

[West is Best]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

Edited February 3, 2012 by West is Best

[Snowy Easterly]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

looks like on this occasion West is not best, but i think you are completely wrong because 95% of people on here and the met office are forecasting snow, for large parts of england

Edited February 3, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[snow raven]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

No need to hope you will be completely wrong - you will be completely wrong!

[Yorkshiresnows]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

Honestly. West, please go and try to read the charts !!

One day you will be right, ..... but massively unlikely today.

Y.S

[danm]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

Ok so it's West Is Best vs The Met Office, countless weather models, experienced members on here, the BBC weather centre etc etc.

[Biggin]

Jeez that is freezing out there my car said -5 two hours ago, even more bitter now

[lightningst]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

surely the met office warnings and the net weather warnings and all the other sites wont be wrong at this point. there will have looked into the angle of the front and if it will snow or not.

[Nick L]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

Which models are you looking at?!

Please post charts to support your...alternative...view please!

[kold weather]

Well the latest models do little to alter my view that this is going to be a damp squib. The line of advance just looks all wrong to me. I've never heard of snow from a setup like this, except that which lasts a few hours before turning to rain which is what I think is going to happen tomorrow for all but the higher spots above say 300mASL and even then in the east and north.

I really hope I'm completely wrong! Lol.

Its certainly a rare set-up, as we both said to get a frontal system coming in from this angle into this sort of proper dry cold air is something that can't have happened that often in the last few decades. we are sort of flying in blind with this one so in light of this I see no reason not to go with the models, especially as they seem to have upgraded again on the high resolution models on the 18z run.