London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 6

[kold weather]

As Steve said in the general thread, the local sweet spot is shifting SW over the runs, nos suggests Essex gets hit the hardest in pour little section of the country, but given the trend I'd not be shocked if that ends up over E.London as well.

Models are delaying the frontal systems progress, looks liker an overnight event rather than late eveing event that was the case on yesterdays runs. Frontal systrem is slower which really does raise the risk of a stall again.

[SLEETY]

Going to be a tense and perhaps furstrating night for us down here, I really hope MO is overestimating the coastal warming effect and that my 1 mile inland location makes a difference, wouldn't count on it though, but if it can snow in Tourquay then there is still hope!

Well hopefully it will be snow,We seem to be right on the edge of the rain/snow band,so a very tense evening coming up

[Gowon]

Looks like another spell of snow for us on Monday according the latest GFS.

Edit - More like sleet, lol.

Edited February 4, 2012 by Higrade

[snowfish]

I've got my itchy snow nose today, it only really starts like this when there are huge amounts due.......

Now not that models area lot of use now, but just having a look at this morning 06Z GFS, the sweet spot in terms of time is still between 00..00 tonight and 06.00 tomorrow morning (as it has been for 10 days!) and the line at that time-scale goes back and forward across Beachy Head!!!!

I'm sure people to the West of me will still end up with something very pleasing, but I may be unable to get out of the house and unfortunately, be off work for days....

Morning COAST et al

Yep, GFS 06z looks very tasty indeed and from where I am sitting, looks like we could get hit very hard on the North East coast (See avatar) what are you thoughts? According to NW, the snow for my area continues until 3pm sunday lol!

[sconetone]

Important question folks....

I plan to drive down from Nottingham to Wokingham this evening, setting off around 6pm

Now.....do I go all the way down the M1 onto M25 then M4 - motorway all the way

Or.......do I risk the shorter route and come down past Towcester, oxford etc and risk the Chilterns - then M40 Motorway & dual carriageway (s)

My fate is in your hands

T

Edited February 4, 2012 by sconetone

[donna-m]

Morning you lovely cuddly South Easterners!!!!! :unsure:

Late morning for me but just about to catch up. Anybody stuck in a drift or marooned at home in 6 ft of it yet?

Nope not yet.. but this time tomorrow ask the same question?

[polarlow2]

Anyone still worried it may stall? It's been my concern over the last few days that the front will just not make it far enough east. I may just be looking for things to worry about though...someone reassure me..

[poppie123]

Just wondered what time this is supposed to start roughly for where i am. I've got to pick my Daughter up from her friends later on tonight and i am beginning to wonder if i should even let her go?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 and one guinea pig!

Looking forward to the snow fest later!

Aww I have 10 chickens, 2 cats, giant African snails, 5 fish and 3 younger siblings...

Just wondered what time this is supposed to start roughly for where i am. I've got to pick my Daughter up from her friends later on tonight and i am beginning to wonder if i should even let her go?

about 8:30ish for you I reckon?

[Coast]

Important question folks....

I plan to drive down from Nottingham to Wokingham this evening, setting off around 6pm

Now.....do I go all the way down the M1 onto M25 then M4 - motorway all the way

Or.......do I risk the shorter route and come down past Towcester, oxford etc and risk the Chilterns - then M40 Motorway & dual carriageway (s)

My fate is in your hands

T

I'd try and get going a little earlier, but I suspect the main band of potential won't truly arrive until 10pm ish. I'd take M40 if it was me driving - lighter traffic, slightly easier route*

*No responsibly for life, luggage or people is accepted or implied!

[kold weather]

Just wondered what time this is supposed to start roughly for where i am. I've got to pick my Daughter up from her friends later on tonight and i am beginning to wonder if i should even let her go?

For Essex somewhere between 9-11pm looks likely at the moment, heaviest probably between 1-3am.

[Coast]

Anyone still worried it may stall?

Nope, not at all!

[Eskimo]

Just wondered what time this is supposed to start roughly for where i am. I've got to pick my Daughter up from her friends later on tonight and i am beginning to wonder if i should even let her go?

between 8-10pm

[Amanzi]

As Steve said in the general thread, the local sweet spot is shifting SW over the runs, nos suggests Essex gets hit the hardest in pour little section of the country, but given the trend I'd not be shocked if that ends up over E.London as well.

Models are delaying the frontal systems progress, looks liker an overnight event rather than late eveing event that was the case on yesterdays runs. Frontal systrem is slower which really does raise the risk of a stall again.

Kold, what are the odds of a stall right now? Sorry to put you on the spot, but I really am hoping that it does stall over the SE. MetO had light snow forecast for here arriving at 18:00 and the latest update now has it put back to 20:00, so the movement has been slowed down. I think that is good news!

[kold weather]

Kold, what are the odds of a stall right now? Sorry to put you on the spot, but I really am hoping that it does stall over the SE. MetO had light snow forecast for here arriving at 18:00 and the latest update now has it put back to 20:00, so the movement has been slowed down. I think that is good news!

Probably still more likely to stall just to our east and decay. Not sure a stall is the best thing anyway because that front will weaken fast and as it weakens the chances of it becoming sleet/rain increase, especially during the daytime hours. Best get it just ejected for most of us to be honest.

[bobbydog]

Anyone still worried it may stall? It's been my concern over the last few days that the front will just not make it far enough east. I may just be looking for things to worry about though...someone reassure me..

its marching steadily towards us at the moment, we do want it to stall though,- right over us!!

[Eskimo]

Quick recap of what I expect today

[sconetone]

Many thanks Coast - love the small-print lol

[bobbydog]

Probably still more likely to stall just to our east and decay. Not sure a stall is the best thing anyway because that front will weaken fast and as it weakens the chances of it becoming sleet/rain increase, especially during the daytime hours. Best get it just ejected for most of us to be honest.

don't be so negative! come on everybody- 'use the force'

[Jimmey]

Hi all, getting really excited about this now. My little boy has recently turned 3 and this will be the first proper snow event that he really knows anything about. Took him out in it last winter but he wasn't too keen.

Now my dilemma is that I am travelling to Nottingham on Sunday evening by train for work on Monday and will be in Nottingham all week. Should I cancel? Is the outlook for next week that we will be getting more? More concerned about getting home than getting there.

[polarlow2]

Sorry for the pessimism, I have memories of February 1996. Still brings me out in a cold sweat. I'm still punting for somewhere just north of London as the 'sweet spot' I said Watford yesterday and that's still my thinking.

[VillagePlank]

Morning all,

At less than T+72 hours heights and thicknesses become important for determining whether any precipitation will fall as snow, sleet or rain. We can get this information from public charts. Here's the analysis for tonight over the SE quadrant (Kent/Sussex/E Sussex),

As a rule of thumb (read: local factors such as how high up you are, if you are on the coast, how intense the precipitation etc etc modify this) for snow we need,

• 1000/850hPa < 129
  
• 850/700hPa < 154
  

Importantly, as the 850/700 approaches 154 then the chances of some sleet getting mixed in increases. From this, my forecast is perhaps a little wet snow over midnight, but, otherwise, all precipitation will fall as snow, especially with height. Local heating from large bodies of water (coasts) may push these values over the threshold, but the hopes are that the cold ground will modify such heating such that it falls at least as sleet there as well.

Incidentally, 1000/850hPa > 131, and 850/700hPa > 154 certainly indicate rain - and we're not even close to those values.

Happy snow hunting

Edited February 4, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[GoonerGregg77]

I think this band of snow will be here quicker than forecast, and leave us quicker than forecast! I do hope it stalls somewhat, moving pretty quick on the radar

[Coast]

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Sun 05 Feb at 0am GMT

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Sun 05 Feb at 6am GMT

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[poppie123]

Thanks everyone, i am supposed to be picking her up around 11ish. I will talk to her when she gets in from work but i think if she does go she will have to come home earlier than that.