South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 3

[gottolovethisweather]

hi guys i can confirm we will have a significant chance of snow tonight! i am quite high up in weather circles and so far (touch wood) i have never been wrong!

Based on what evidence, it is good to get some expert analysis on here so can you divulge some of your information please?

[SunnySouthCoast]

No flakes of snow here, have been looking out the window all morning! It is cold though, 1C (34F) currently and it only dropped to half a degree lower than that over night.

I think those in Dorset, even towards the coast, stand a fairly good chance of seeing snow tonight. Perhaps not right on the coast itself, but Dorset generally looks set to see some. I wouldn't rule out the odd lighter flurry further east too.

As for the comments about us 'reality freaks' on the coast. We are only being realistic, not pessimistic. Snow here right on the south coast is actually very rare, yes we have had some notable events during the last couple of winters, but those were exceptional! The snow we had here in Portsmouth in January 2010 was the most to have fallen here since 1982! So you can see why we remain cautious whenever a snow event is forecast.

[Purplepixii]

...but I was attempting to point out to the non-believers or reality freaks on the coast, you COULD get lucky this time.

Interesting terminology although I'd rather be a coastal reality freak than a land-locked normal person!

Anyway, no sign of snow in Winchester at this time...

[SupaSnowy]

It's amazing how a few miles to Portsmouth it's different. It's just very light flakes I notice you post alot and temps are always higher there it's amazing.

[SunnySouthCoast]

It's amazing how a few miles to Portsmouth it's different. It's just very light flakes I notice you post alot and temps are always higher there it's amazing.

Yes, don't forget Portsmouth is a very built up city ( the most densely populated city in the UK after London) and also is situated on it's own island. So we get a double whammy of being surrounded by the sea and the urban heat effect keeping us warmer than the surrounding areas.

[katemart]

Still looking good for tonight! If I do manage to struggle in through the drifts to the office tomorrow I shall be very bleary-eyed!

Time to test the brand new halogen street lights we've had installed. Very annoyed they have taken away completely the one I was able to see without putting a crick in my neck!

PS - this is a RAMMMPPPP!

Edited February 9, 2012 by katemart

[gottolovethisweather]

No flakes of snow here, have been looking out the window all morning! It is cold though, 1C (34F) currently and it only dropped to half a degree lower than that over night.

I think those in Dorset, even towards the coast, stand a fairly good chance of seeing snow tonight. Perhaps not right on the coast itself, but Dorset generally looks set to see some. I wouldn't rule out the odd lighter flurry further east too.

As for the comments about us 'reality freaks' on the coast. We are only being realistic, not pessimistic. Snow here right on the south coast is actually very rare, yes we have had some notable events during the last couple of winters, but those were exceptional! The snow we had here in Portsmouth in January 2010 was the most to have fallen here since 1982! So you can see why we remain cautious whenever a snow event is forecast.

A very sensible post there SSC and as your name suggests you most probably get more sunshine than me for example. Of course I can say that I get more snow than you too but it is all relative. The "reality freaks" wording could have perhaps been better phrased but reality or not, snow does come to you folks and also in bucketloads on rare occasions. We wouldn't be on here if we all weren't looking for the holy grail.

With our position at the edge of the atlantic and with seashores all around us, it is amazing how we witness so many different weather types. Yet alone, all the microclimates which exist, the Britsh Climate must be one of the best in the world. For some, winter without LYING SNOW would seem unbearable but the fact remains as others have suggested, this is often the reality.

Talking of being realistic, if you were to go back just a couple of weeks, who would have thought we would be in a potential record breaking month in terms of COLD. As long as this COLD remains, there will be yet more chances of SNOW to come.

For now, it is still -1.3c with cloudy skies here in Newbury and at that rate, I may achieve another ICE day.

Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 9, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

I've copied the following post from TEITS in the snow and ice risk thread which I hope will help some folk in here.

Going to do my comparison with the radar/models.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs063.gif

http://expert-images...020912_0906.gif

Slightly topsy turvy because the radar has heavier precip off the coast of the N Sea with mainly light precip across N England.

Now here is how I expect the aftenoon to pan out and I would follow the radar rather than the models. What you see to our N will continue to move S during the afternoon. During late afternoon/evening this band will curve SSW or SW. What happens to the precip as it moves SW is impossible to say but at the moment the main band of heavy precip looks likely across W midlands whilst E Midlands have lighter snow. However because in the E the rain will start as snow and in the W it will be rain turning to snow could result in accumulations being roughly similiar.

As ever in these situations some will be pleasantly surprised and some will be disappointed. This is not as straight forward as last Saturdays snow event.

Once again, thanks go out to THE EYE IN THE SKY for this post.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 9, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Dorsetbred]

Still sub zero (just) at -0.3°C as the sun does it's best to peer through the gloom.

I for one won't be lampopost watching tonight, as I can almost see the sea from where I live I think it'll need more than tonights' little affair to generate something in the white precip arena.

[divadee]

0.7 here at the moment. But I have a feeling this might go to far west for us in east Dorset/Hampshire coast locations. Still holding onto a little but of faith as it seems noone even the met o know where this is really likely to hit here!

[SunnySouthCoast]

It's a tropical 1.5C (35F) here now lol

Met Office forecast showing 'light snow' here around midnight, if only it would shift a bit further east they we could be in with a chance of seeing something a bit heavier

[PompeyFC]

it may do yet sunny - its nowcast situation later

[Stoxs]

still lots of uncertanty regard the track of the heavyer PPN tonight.

this could be a few flurries for the main of our area with the larger totals heading to our north west.

Nearly impossible to predict the track of this sort of front as it is surgested to head south then swing Sw, where this happens is still unsure.

Certainlly high ground NW of our area I,e the cotswolds looking in the money at the moment.

North of area I,e Oxford is still looking o.k,

If you take a rough line from southampton water upto The wash then west of this line should see some snow, east of this line a few flurries.

All down to the lamposts now folks and of course the radar!

good luck all

[Zenarcher]

A quick forecast for this region using the latest GFS data,

Mainly dry this evening with cloudy skies and some rain showers are possible to the far North West. Around midnight snow showers will come from the North West and spread across the entire region, at first the snow showers look only likely to affect Northern and Eastern parts but as the night progresses into the early morning these showers are very likely to spread to the far South and West as well. Into Friday morning it looks to dry up across places but the South Western parts will still hang onto snow showers until the afternoon. Temperatures tonight could get down to -2c for inland areas and around 0c to 2c for the coasts. Overall its looking good for the entire region but any snowfall that occurs is likely to happen over night. Will provide an up to date forecast this evening.

[DAVEY1980]

How is Basingstoke looking for snow - Has there been an upgrade for here. Can't really work it out.

[Nick L]

A quick forecast for this region using the latest GFS data,

Mainly dry this evening with cloudy skies and some rain showers are possible to the far North West. Around midnight snow showers will come from the North West and spread across the entire region, at first the snow showers look only likely to affect Northern and Eastern parts but as the night progresses into the early morning these showers are very likely to spread to the far South and West as well. Into Friday morning it looks to dry up across places but the South Western parts will still hang onto snow showers until the afternoon. Temperatures tonight could get down to -2c for inland areas and around 0c to 2c for the coasts. Overall its looking good for the entire region but any snowfall that occurs is likely to happen over night. Will provide an up to date forecast this evening.

Cheers for that WM

[Polar Bear]

Quick radar grab for you all to put all the above forecasts into context:

oh and also to add that this morning reading had slight and i mean slight snow (i.e. flake every five minutes) this was about 10 am this morning.

Edited February 9, 2012 by Polar Bear

[karlos1983]

Hows Dorset looking for a snow event this evening/overnight then do we think?

[SunnySouthCoast]

Sun is shining here now, if a little hazy and the temperature is just above 2C (36F), don't climb any higher please!!

[katemart]

Quick radar grab for you all to put all the above forecasts into context:

oh and also to add that this morning reading had slight and i mean slight snow (i.e. flake every five minutes) this was about 10 am this morning.

People supposedly under the PPN on the other threads are complaining that there is nothing falling. Apparently the moisture is evaporating before it can hit ground level. So we need the humidity to rise? And the DP?

[SunnySouthCoast]

Latest Met Office forecast for Portsmouth (updated just after 2pm) now shows light snow here 9pm and 12am, my face will be pressed against the window this evening lampost watching!

[gottolovethisweather]

People supposedly under the PPN on the other threads are complaining that there is nothing falling. Apparently the moisture is evaporating before it can hit ground level. So we need the humidity to rise? And the DP?

Yes Kate, as to your last questions, I don't know?

However, this was taken from the snow and frrezing rain risk thread and was posted by our very own Nick L. I hope this helps, but don't ask me to interpret these charts, you will have to look in the learners forum for an answer to that. All we need are a few skew-T charts for our area tonight?

The skew-T from Nottingham shows us why quite nicely...

http://nwstatic.co.u...76410131441.png

The left hand line represents dew point, the right temperature. So the closer they are together the moister the air. Higher up the air is saturated (cloud cover), nearer the surface it is much, much drier so the precipitation simply evaporates. As we head through the day, the air near the surface will become more moist...

http://nwstatic.co.u...76410131441.png

Let us hope this lack of precipitation trend does NOT continue.

Regards

gottolovethisweather in Newbury, Berks where it is currently 0.4c AT, -2.1c DP

Edited February 9, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[katemart]

Good grief, Gotto!

And that is all I have to say about that.

[katemart]

AT has now peaked at 1.3C and is now falling. DP peaked at -4.3 and now -5.6. Humidity 61% and falling, but pressure is also falling steadily/rapidly. Hope to chat with you all this evening.

[SupaSnowy]

Sun out here which is nice I like the look of the 12z NAE seems have moved east