North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 6

[Liam J]

Even colder tonight according the NMM, nowhere escaping the frost and I expect a few locations will record even lower than the temperatures shown here.

Struggling to make 2 or 3c at best during Wednesday.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Liam J

[Martin M]

-4c here this morning. Glad im on holiday as the car is a block of ice after last nights frost. Even colder tonight by looks of things.

[cheshire snow]

Yes the colder air is back with us,but for how long is open to debate

another intresting little feature for our region on Thursday with another front

aproaching from the NW,and with temps at only 1 or 2c on thursday wintry ppn

cannot be ruled out,meto sy rain or snow so i suspect snow above 200m with

rain/sleet for lower levels

C.S

[trickydicky]

Does anywhere still have snow cover in our neck of the woods. Even the fells are clear of snow following yesterday round my end. These are the Bowland Fells though, which usually display the snow holding capacity of Captain Hook, so I wouldn't be suprised if there was still some low level snow knocking about?

Not looking forward to this 'event' later in the week, if its anything like Saturday. A day of incessant sleet/freezing rain is pure torture when 2 miles in land and/or 25 metres higher gets 3 inches of snow. Some nice, fairly hard frosts coming up.

[Backtrack]

+0.1C after a low of -3.8C last night. Net Weather say -7C for my area tonight with the NMM saying -5C, so I will go for a punt of saying it'll be inbetween, so -6C here tonight.

Mist/fog patches keep coming over every now and then.

Liverpool airport still at -2C under freezing fog, could well be an ice day just over the water. Insane.

[Backtrack]

Temperatures will dip away quickly overnight tonight as skies clear and that'll mean -10c to -15c is a distinct possibility for parts of Wales the Midlands and northern England in particular. Even away from the coldest spots, virtually all of the country will see a hard frost with temperatures at least a couple of degrees below freezing for everyone.

Yes, yes please.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Backtrack

[trickydicky]

I wouldn't be expecting anything as low as -10 or certainly -15 unless you live in a valley that has retained snow cover in the Lake District or Pennines, like below:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/cumbria/content/webcams/greenhowe_webcam.shtml

Otherwise we'll be looking at more like -5 to -7.

I think that is referring more to the North East anyway.

[Liam J]

Another beautiful day here in Cumbria with blue skies and late winter sunshine. Currently 4.4c, light SE'ly winds.

Impressive low maximum temps over Kent today due to the winds coming off the nearby continent, even on the coast. maxes around 0c to -3.0c atm with dew points -9/-10c.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Liam J

[gareth73]

An interesting afternoon in west Manchester. First of all a Magpie tried to pinch one of my temp sensors!!! Saw him off. 2.5c here and falling away but from bright sunshine we have moved to thick cloud that looks snow baring but I know we are not forcast for any.

[MWB]

Same over here. Been clear all day but now dark cloud is approaching from east. No evidence of ppn on radar though.

[feb1991blizzard]

Looking like it could be a good run so far. Fingers crossed.

[Backtrack]

Going to keep this one on the down low and not ramp it, but there is a significant chance of some light/moderate snow on Thursday. A front will bump into cold continental air, with temperatures being below freezing. Could be what we have been waiting for. Slight accumulations possible.

Then again, it could easily be freezing rain again, as the uppers warm up to around -1C/0C.

0.9C atm, very cold. -7C easily tonight.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Backtrack

[davacr123]

Going to keep this one on the down low and not ramp it, but there is a significant chance of some light/moderate snow on Thursday. A front will bump into cold continental air, with temperatures being below freezing. Could be what we have been waiting for. Slight accumulations possible.

Then again, it could easily be freezing rain again, as the uppers warm up to around -1C/0C.

0.9C atm, very cold. -7C easily tonight.

Will be interesting if that does happen as there is nothing forecast so fingers crossed it will come off this time

Edited February 7, 2012 by davacr123

[Backtrack]

Will be interesting if that does happen as there is nothing forecast so fingers crossed it will come off this time roubd

Just take a look at the FAX charts.

It does look like another freezing rain event though unfortunately, it's a positively tilted warm front, pushing the colder air out of the way at 850hPa, leaving us with sub-zero surface temps, Friday morning will be interesting, it's either going to be icy or snowy. :lol:

Edited February 7, 2012 by Backtrack

[Thunder Snow]

Going to keep this one on the down low and not ramp it, but there is a significant chance of some light/moderate snow on Thursday. A front will bump into cold continental air, with temperatures being below freezing. Could be what we have been waiting for. Slight accumulations possible.

Then again, it could easily be freezing rain again, as the uppers warm up to around -1C/0C.

0.9C atm, very cold. -7C easily tonight.

i would say rain/freezing rain

[Backtrack]

FYI - growing support from some already strong signals of some strong northern blocking over Greenland at 7 days out.

Cold, snowy Northerlies for some, likely cold and dry here, although a polar low in the Irish Sea would bury our region. Interesting time. Look for disturbances in the flow such a troughs or smalls lows, and best of all, a battleground.

Something to watch, February isn't done with us yet, it could easily turn just as, or even colder than the cold spell we're under currently.

[davacr123]

Just take a look at the FAX charts.

It does look like another freezing rain event though unfortunately, it's a positively tilted warm front, pushing the colder air out of the way at 850hPa, leaving us with sub-zero surface temps, Friday morning will be interesting, it's either going to be icy or snowy. :lol:

Where can I view the fax charts thanks bt

[Backtrack]

i would say rain/freezing rain

I would too, but it's something that needs watching closely for changes.

Where can I view the fax charts thanks bt

Right here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=

[feb1991blizzard]

Good agreement between GFS and UKMO around the 144 range for an attempted height rise into Greeny, Met office outlook suggests a toppler and looking at the runs i am inclined to agree but a toppler to where? i thought the 06z evolution was very interesting (Better easterly potential) giving the one thing that has been lacking in the recent blocking episodes and it makes a massive difference in terms of widespread snow potential - low heights to south squeezing up causing a steeper pressure gradient, stronger winds, ok a bigger risk of the South getting snow washed away, but even for those further south and not just a NW perspective, id rather have the risk now, time is running out and surely its not about long drawn out synoptice now, a quick fix solution needed, ie, a big dumping and to hell with what happens afterwards.

10 point plan over the next day, UKMO 12z, GFS 12z, ECM 12z,, GEFS, ECM ens, and then all the 0zs and their ens.

GFS 12z = Pass (Just about, yes no snowfest but a decent trend.)

UKMO 12z = Pass (better orientated troughing looks like a better attempt at carving a ridge into greenland.)

GEFS 12z = Fail (looks that way but only looked at about 6 out to 120 and they all look like flattening the pattern, need a good ECM)

Edited February 7, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[davacr123]

Thanks for the link by not just Thursday but also Sunday looks possible with the warm front hitting the colder air

[Weather-history]

Amazing how quickly it clouded up this morning here, it seemed to develop rather than come across. I can't see it being a particulalry cold nght if this cloud doesn't clear.

[Backtrack]

Amazing how quickly it clouded up this morning here, it seemed to develop rather than come across. I can't see it being a particulalry cold nght if this cloud doesn't clear.

It's already starting to clear as the Easterly kicks in. See link.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html#

Thanks for the link by not just Thursday but also Sunday looks possible with the warm front hitting the colder air

Wouldn't look as far ahead as Sunday, the fronts can change within 12 hours, never mind 5 days!

[Liam J]

1.0c here as the sun dips below the horizon, max today of 4.4c.

Should be another nice day during Wednesday with temps struggling to make 2 to 3c and a quick return to frost during the evening. Cloud and rain spreading in as we head into Thursday with the possibility again of freezing rain due to low level temps being at or below freezing. 850 temps will be higher than what accompanied the event last weekend, so snow looking even less likely unfortunately.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Quote from Zakos in the MOD:

Well it looks like the Russian high is going to be leaving us for now. But as soon as it leaves it looks like the jet is going to visit northern Greenland

Looking at temperatures, the Atlantic takes hold of the UK for about a day before swiftly being replaced by a northerly flow. Once again, no indication of a return to zonal weather for the UK. Cross model agreement on the Greenland high now, still to be decided weather it will be sustained, how cold it will be etc

[cheshire snow]

Looking like another freezing rain event on Thursday YUK,was very much hoping i was not going

to witness another event like that.

On the Plus side the UKMO and ECM look pretty decent tonight but 6-7 days away so FI