North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 6

[swainclubber]

Yep the T850's have shifted west again, if i lived around the Manchester area i would be very excited

fantastic. still the pub run though eh.

[dodge]

So is this not for first thing tomorrow i.e. the freezing rain forecast, but for later Thurs night into Friday that we will have a better chance of rain turning to snow scenario?

[gareth73]

We got clobbered on saturday in manchester with snow when we were expecting freezing rain. With that cool pool moving furthur west it must be snow me thinks. The temps continue to drop -3.8c. Colder now than this time last night.

[guvnor22002]

well its either gonna rain or snow for 24hours

now looking like a rain to snow event for southern and central areas for our region.

And my flight from manchester to gatwick friday 8.30 am is looking decididley iffy.

[Darren Bown]

Which ever way it goes it'll still be interesting over the next 24 hours,at least one of the outcomes won't be boring rain as it gets milder....

[Stephen_Mcr]

Can't see that temp changing enough for snow here - This is shaping up to be like Saturday with regards to huge variations across the region, but in my opinion far more marginal for snow.

[Bartlett Low]

Local...knowlege/experience..is the key I reckon. And its gotta be watertight here with all boxes ticked for reasonable depth lying snow. And the boxes are not going to be ticked. So might see a bit of snow but won't amount to much.

[axel2k5]

If we can get those warm uppers to retreat further west tomorrow to raise the chance of preciptn turning to snow

[johnwirral]

More low level snow showing up on the GFS 18z, even shows some for the Wirral, although that must be an error. Check out the detailed forecast on meteociel gfs 0.5 hour link.

[Bartlett Low]

GFS precipitation pretty inaccurate, only accurate to is it 16 or 27 miles, something like that. Not the one to use close in anyway. Will just check if there's an 18z NAE..

[Liam J]

Watch out of you live in the north of the region, amber warning issued now for freezing rain and ice. Don't underestimate this as it could be fatal for some during tomorrow. Very severe.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html

[Bartlett Low]

^{Just checked the 18z NAE, does infact show as snow over much of the region, even out to the coasts.}

Edited February 8, 2012 by Bartlett Low

[damianslaw]

Watch out of you live in the north of the region, amber warning issued now for freezing rain and ice. Don't underestimate this as it could be fatal for some during tomorrow. Very severe.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Yes it looks like we are going to be particularly hard hit. The likes of Kirkstone Pass and A6 over Shap will be exceptionally lethal. Indeed most roads could be a death trap - will be interesting to see whether this becomes a very severe event and it is right the bbc is focusing in on the ice threat rather than the snow threat tomorrow - the ice threat is far more severe.

[Liam J]

Yes it looks like we are going to be particularly hard hit. The likes of Kirkstone Pass and A6 over Shap will be exceptionally lethal. Indeed most roads could be a death trap - will be interesting to see whether this becomes a very severe event and it is right the bbc is focusing in on the ice threat rather than the snow threat tomorrow - the ice threat is far more severe.

Yes they seem to be ramping this up, perhaps it won't be too bad come rush hour in the morning as the front is shown to move in during to early hours so I assume things will warm up? Not sure how long it will take the surfaces and ground to rise above freezing. they will however be mighty cold as the temp fell to -2.7c earlier, currently -0.5c.

My journey to work will be interesting, better take it easy! God knows what to expect. Potential for widespread accidents.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Liam J

[guvnor22002]

why would met issue amber warnings at this time when most people will be in bed get up in the morning and drive there car oblivios to the danger wonder how many of the general public go on there website this time of day issued at 1026pm im guessing it dididnt even show on the 10 oclock news weather bit poor that

[kold weather]

As I said before, there is such a large risk of Freezing rain, thats a big reason why I added in the 'freezing rain' part of the general discussion...still time for things to change...

[AderynCoch]

Worst ever meto warnings

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Clearly a snow and ice boundary overlapping our region yet no mention of snow or sleet at all.... WTF?

Interesting warning for Friday though. Hope we get something out of that, because I can't be bothered with another rainfest.

I wish the cold air would put up more of a fight. It's so frustrating seeing it refusing to travel further west.

Edited February 8, 2012 by AderynCoch

[Backtrack]

Make the most of slightly warmer temps Sun-Tue 'because by Wednesday, the cold is back. (Simon Keeling)

Oh, and further Westward shifts for us tonight on the models . Good chance of snow Friday.

[Backtrack]

Woop woop.

18z shifted it West again. A few more W shifts, and we've hit the jackpot for Friday,

Fingers crossed.

Edited February 8, 2012 by Backtrack

[MrSunshine]

Woop woop.

18z shifted it West again. A few more W shifts, and we've hit the jackpot for Friday,

Fingers crossed.

If that came off I'd be more than happy! Fingers crossed!!

[Backtrack]

If that came off I'd be more than happy! Fingers crossed!!

Pray for a 50-75 mile W shift, it's ALL to play for!

Who were the guys saying that was it in terms of snow for winter, and I laughed and they had a go at me?

Just remind yourselves of that.

[MrSunshine]

Pray for a 50-75 mile W shift, it's ALL to play for!

Who were the guys saying that was it in terms of snow for winter, and I laughed and they had a go at me?

Just remind yourselves of that.

I'm ruling nothing out at this stage, it only take a few suttle changes and the outcome could be much much different! I'm actually more confident about tomorrow night/Friday than I was about last Saturday!!

[Backtrack]

I'm ruling nothing out at this stage, it only take a few suttle changes and the outcome could be much much different! I'm actually more confident about tomorrow night/Friday than I was about last Saturday!!

Yeah same here, the Met Office issued a warning much earlier than on Saturday, suggesting to me that they're more confident about this one.

Backtrack's special snow wager: If we do not get snow on Friday, I will film myself cutting my eyebrows off!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Backtrack

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120208/18/147/h850t850eu.png

i smell a northerley

[Lancashire Lass]

NMM still going for freezing rain