Wales Cymru Weather Discussion Part 5

[Gavla]

A few cms would be something followed by a Jackone streamer sunday sent the order out already.

Realistically what can we expect ? looking at the met, beeb and local forecasts we are not mentioned at all only scotland.

[TonyH]

I shall be posting a photo of all my snow here Sunday!

[keithlucky]

A covering overnight Saturday it comes to radar watching a few miles either way makes a difference.Lol T sarcasm ? lol.

Edited February 16, 2012 by keithlucky

[J10]

Yes

GFS Current pressure estimates 6pm Sat 1017mb

midnight 1022mb

A lot higher that earlier runs and especially last night.

GEM midnight 1012mb

So much more showery potential with the GEM.

ECM pressure sub 1020mb until after midnight, dam around 524.

Certianly don't want pressure to rise anymore than this.

Derek just said dry Saturday night, showers Sunday to me that doesn't make sense, the other way around would be more likely.

Looking at the charts tonight,

I'll compare the charts now to last night.

GFs has pushed things a little further west, with pressure of 1019 at 9pm and 1022 at midnight, compared to 1020 at 9pm and 1022mb, small steps but in the right direction.

ECM similar to last night and has a nice long draw NW during the eary hours, with sub 528 dam and -8c uppers, perfect strream er condions if the preesure wasn't so high.

UKMO pressure around 1017mb at midnight, with a decent NW for streamers. ]

GEM pressure 1015mb with a decent NW.

FAX is half decent as well.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack1a.gif

So in many ways things look promsing for Saturday, uppers look promising, wind direction looks good, but the pressure is the big worry,

As I said last night we need a bit of luck on our side.

WOS APNIN???

With the potential for snow this weekend, I'd expect more action on the forum. Is the quietness a reflection of the unlikeliness of any snow of worth, or are the rest of them battoning down the hatches in preperation for a week of total chaos due to 0.5cm of snow?!?!?!?!

This doesn't effect SE England. so the forum as a whole isn't interested.

[whiskers]

I think i might hang up my snow shovel that i have had no use of this year!what a crappy winter!

[KTtom]

Must admit, i'm usually optermistic with northerly winds, the trouble with this weekends affair is simply that it doesn't last long enough to drive the showers south, everything looks ok otherwise, temps definately the right side of marginal but the only ppn I can see is maybe the far NE of Wales. Total write off of a winter for me too.

[J10]

GFS very similar to previous runs, and remains the quickest in bringing in the High Pressure.

NAE now out to 18Hz Saturday.

Pressure around 1015mb, NW winds, -6c 850Hpa, DP below freezing. Thicknesses already sub 528 Any showers are likely to be wintry at least.

Chances remain for Saturday, as does the obvious spoiler.

[welshwizard]

as far as forecast for weekend, even if it does snow (big even) i dont see any point in getting excited as its going to be very mild by the looks next week so it will melt in no time. lets have guess on here, who thinks it will snow and if so how much?

i will go for slight showers being blown in but not coming to much. maybe a dusting on mountains and far nw wales. i also want to say i hope im wrong and you all get hammered just so everyone can then put this awful winter to bed.

[ourson]

So quiet in here. Hello - is there anybody out there??

Bbc 5 live talking about snow for scotland nw england and n ireland. Wales is having no weather at all. What a bag if s***e!! ;(

[swales]

Can't believe how quiet it is here hahaha...

Snow for my location tomorrow looks unlikely... until AT LEAST 6pm... and even after that the air temperatures remains horribly high for the rest of the evening according to the NMM....

I know that temps can drop like a stone once the cold front passes BUT will it be enough?

If you're around Jackone what is your take on things from this mornings outputs?

[keithlucky]

No shaun Wales at last have got a weather warning from met

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Change Region

Yellow Alert of Ice18 Feb 2012, 16:00

Issued at - 17 Feb 2012, 10:55

Valid from - 18 Feb 2012, 16:00

Valid to - 19 Feb 2012, 11:00

Sleet and snow showers will extend from the northwest on Saturday and last through Saturday night into Sunday morning. These are likely to lead to widespread ice developing on untreated surfaces. In addition some 2-5cm of snow is likely to accumulate locally away from immediate north and west facing coastal fringes. Over Northern Ireland there is a risk that 5-10cm of snow could accumulate in places on ground above about 200m. The public should be aware that this could lead to some disruption to travel.

[Marcus_surfer]

12 degrees here very nice

[TonyH]

Damned warning! Stops 5 miles north of me, at least I am going up to Mach tomorrow so could go through a snow shower or two.

[TonyH]

Certainly cold enough above us for snow to fall, doubtful it would settle, what with how mild it's been this week.

GFS a puzzle as it's failing to factor in showers for Wales:

A bone dry evening, just when we need the precipitation to be falling after dark.

On a more positive note (for those who want snow that is), FAX midnight has a shower trough approaching north Wales:

Edited February 17, 2012 by TonyH

[DeepSnow]

I get the feeling this is going to be a non-event for most in Wales?

Slightly cooler today with the cloud stopping temps rising much, currently 9.9C here and damp after some drizzly stuff.

[Jase]

Well I for one think I will wake up to a dusting of snow come Sunday morning

[Marcus_surfer]

anyone see the BBC Wales forecast? 6 degrees is not "Arctic air" Derek!

[TonyH]

Hardly Arctic sourced air truly, apart from briefly for a few hours at a push:

More Polar Martime overall.

Edited February 17, 2012 by TonyH

[andymusic]

Bring on the spring - we have been spoilt these previous 3 winters - this is the weather's pay back - nothing really notable this year - so let's get the warmth going again - between now and easter we mayyyyyyyyyyyyyy see the odd flake of something in a shower - but anything more notable will be shot down in sunny flames by the sun which is now getting stronger and stronger. Sorry folks!

[Gavla]

anyone see the BBC Wales forecast? 6 degrees is not "Arctic air" Derek!

i seen it, suppose hes right its the closest artic air has been to us all winter haha lol

[TonyH]

March is more snowy than December on average and still a while off the heat of summer (nor is this guaranteed mind).

[TonyH]

I have seen deep snow in march, several inches that stuck late April, and sleet in June so 3 months left for the snow hopes.

[andymusic]

I have seen deep snow in march, several inches that stuck late April, and sleet in June so 3 months left for the snow hopes.

Like your optiminism Tony - just a shame we've been short of "cold" snowy spells so far this winter - there's always the unknown surprise I suppose - and Easter can be an interesting "cold" time of the year too - but you must admit winter has been appalling this year in contrast with the previous three!

[TonyH]

It's all part of the variety of our climate Andy, we can get near snowless Winter's as easily as we get ones like 2010.

[DeepSnow]

I remember 0n 30th March 2010 I think it was we had a cold spell of weather and we had a really heavy shower that quickly turned to heavy wet snow for about 2munites and then passed! So next month it is more than possible to get snow, but by then I will be looking more for thunderstorms than snow! However I have already had 2 days last month with thundery showers, so its a better start that the last few years, just hope that spring and summer provide many more!