London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 11

[willinkent]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2649622?day=0

met office and bbc just updated forecast for tonight....light snow, which has been falling for last hour......hehe

[Mullet]

I used to quite like him but I've recently followed him on twitter and all he goes on about are 'warmingistas' which I find extremely irritating, arrogant and rather childish.

Urgh that's an ugly Americanism. Shame is he clearly knows his stuff but resorts to self promotion like the above, by speculating on data he knows damn well has < 1% chance of verifying.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That light snow that I spotted earlier in the week is now showing up on BBC weather too for my area... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2650188

[Southender]

Its trying so hard to snow here. The sky is orange, theres that distinctive smell of snow in the air, its bitterly cold and we have a few flakes floating around. Its actually too cold I feel!!

Edited February 7, 2012 by Shrimper

[bobbydog]

Its trying so hard to snow here. The sky is orange, theres that distinctive smell of snow in the air, its bitterly cold and we have a few flakes floating around. Its actually too cold I feel!!

too cold to snow.... that, and the moon will keep it warmer....

[Ruthie]

Soooooooo cold here in the west. Bird bath froze solid. Having to have wine to keep warm. Evening to you all.. Keep warm.

[Sunny Kent]

Now the cloud is creeping in how far will the temperature rise? Above freezing again? Poxy crappy cloud!

Oh well it was nice while it lasted early

Edited February 7, 2012 by Sunny Kent

[snowblind]

Got down to -5.1c earlier but now back up to -3.9c as it's clouded over.

No snow falling here but apart from a bit of thawing in the sun today a pretty deep cover still.

[Biggin]

-4 in the car home from the pub int cloud tho

[caro88]

Was -5.0°c here earlier but it's crept up to -4.6°c now.

[Biggin]

Having to have wine to keep warm.

Me too Ruthie

[AmershamMike]

Bloomin 'eck! Just checked the Met office forecast for my neck of the woods - light snow Thurs, heavy snow Friday, not going to be above freezing from now on until at least after Sat and Sat night is supposed to be down to -9C!!!!!!!!!!!

[craigore]

you guys think you have it bad , i had -3.4 at 4.30 today , its now +0.2 !!!!!!

wont be long before i start hearing drip,drip,drip.. Was led to believe i was in for some really low temps tonight wth snow flurries ,i have neither ,god im frustrated.

[DAVID SNOW]

Me too Ruthie

Drunks, the lot of you.

[JohnG]

Hi all. I very rarely post on this site but I read others comments a fair bit and also use the charts to make up my own mind but respect the more knowledgeable people on the site - Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Nick F, GP, Blast from the Past, TEITS etc. Perhaps someone could comment on what I am about to suggest.

I was struggling to see where the precipitation may come from this evening - I know there have been the odd report of a few snowflakes in the air and I noticed some too but the BBC seemed quite sure there could be 1-2cm tonight and I thought from looking at the GFS 6-12 hr charts earlier today there could be a Kent Clipper/streamer (light in nature). But looking at the different radars I couldn't really see where this was coming from. However, I then looked at this website http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur and it appears to show some precipitation over France/Belgium moving toward the SE Kent Coast. I live in Dymchurch. It just seems strange to me as the wind appears to be coming from an North-Easterly direction from the North Sea area yet this precipitation seems to moving from a SE direction! Perhaps someone else may comment on this.

[steveinsussex]

Bloomin 'eck! Just checked the Met office forecast for my neck of the woods - light snow Thurs, heavy snow Friday, not going to be above freezing from now on until at least after Sat and Sat night is supposed to be down to -9C!!!!!!!!!!!

very unlikely on the heavy snow front

[JohnG]

Forget what I just said. It seems to have changed now. It now seems to be going back into France. Not what it was showing 20 mins ago!!!!

[AmershamMike]

very unlikely on the heavy snow front

Steve - check it out http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/amersham_forecast_temp.html

Guess it could change but exciting all the same!!!!

[snowfall09]

Hi all, i know its pretty late but would like to share some of my picture with you from the recent snow here in Folkestone

http://www.flickr.com/photos/76141167@N02/show/

[steveinsussex]

Steve - check it out http://www.metoffice...ecast_temp.html

Guess it could change but exciting all the same!!!!

The models do not show snow for down here this week, maybe a few light flurries but thats it, nothing of note....

[AmershamMike]

The models do not show snow for down here this week, maybe a few light flurries but thats it, nothing of note....

Steve - ah, guess it's a blip then.....didn't think snow was forecast but got excited when I saw that on the MetO forecast......

[snowking]

very unlikely on the heavy snow front

Something I wouldn't rule out just yet, though it will need to be in range of mesoscale modelling (NAE and NMM) because its another very complex setup...very much a risk of something, though not on the scale of what we have seen over the weekend.

If we take a look at the FAX for +72:

fax72s.gif

The 'uncoloured' warm front is an upper warm front...thats usually indicative in these scenarios of warmer air trying to move in from the west, being blocked by the cold air at the surface, rising aloft the cold air, condensing and precipitating. Its usually very light, powdery snow that drops from such frontal systems but it could give a few more cms to one or two select areas. I suspect as we head towards the weekend something will give and barring the precip fizzling out, I think at least a temporary spell of snow looks likely in central and eastern areas once again.

SK

[wintermaster]

Its trying so hard to snow here. The sky is orange, theres that distinctive smell of snow in the air, its bitterly cold and we have a few flakes floating around. Its actually too cold I feel!!

Too cold too snow. Think north pole my friend.

[95 Degrees]

Was teasing -4C here but gone up in the last 30 mins, stupid north sea. :lol:

[snowking]

And just as I post that, this tweet from Ian Fergusson:

latest UKMO GM increases snow signal into Fri for central/E England. Raw output implies 10-20cm possible BUT only a 20% prob...

Important to note the low probability....but the risk is there

SK