Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012

[bluearmy]

Lol,,It makes me laugh that people even regard the models at +240..How many times has it showed that and then nothing comes up..Okay so one can hope but lets face it..Who knows..I bet my bottom dollar it is no where near as cold as that..In fact I think it is really going to begin to warm up after mid march

surrey - it aint that straightforward. you need to look at ops with extreme caution at that range but if you find the ens are clustered in agreement, then you have something to 'hang your hat on'. i would say that at the moment, the chances of low heights in an area just north of the uk stretching around into the north sea in ten days time are very strong. whether that delivers a westerly, souwester or northerly is dependant upon where all the other features position themselves.

[IDO]

great post,

And FI is usually more interesting than whats in the reliable as today's 00z shows, FI brings snow.

Except that the latest GFS 06z (normal caveats apply) shows a total contrast to the 0z, with HP dominant throughout FI, mild temps and NO SNOW. It is of course interesting to look at FI, but at the moment it is rather pointless as the models have not got a clue, swinging wildly from one run to another. It looks like there is going to be cold moving down from the pole and there is a possibility it may influence our weather but I suspect it will be on the periphery as usual, and PM excursions may be our best shot of some wintry stuff. However there is a solid chance, which is better than December & January, when there was little hope, so you never know.

[johnholmes]

the 06z has shown both GFS and NAE suggesting the same rain totals for this location, its now 12mm from each; how reliable that is I will have to wait and see, they have varied from1 to 25mm since 12z yesterday.

Both models now show the low tracking fairly close to one another ending up opposite the Thames estuary.

They also both suggest around the inch mark for some of those areas desperately in need of rainfall. Its to be hoped it does not fall too quickly and simply run off into drains and rivers.

Except that the latest GFS 06z (normal caveats apply) shows a total contrast to the 0z, with HP dominant throughout FI, mild temps and NO SNOW. It is of course interesting to look at FI, but at the moment it is rather pointless as the models have not got a clue, swinging wildly from one run to another. It looks like there is going to be cold moving down from the pole and there is a possibility it may influence our weather but I suspect it will be on the periphery as usual, and PM excursions may be our best shot of some wintry stuff. However there is a solid chance, which is better than December & January, when there was little hope, so you never know.

Even the 500mb anomaly charts, ECMWF and GFS this morning are a bit like chalk and cheese. When that occurs then trust in ANY output at height let alone on the surface is very low.

copied direct from my brief summary into my 500mb checks this morning

Sat 3 ec and gfs for 13 march

Bit chalk and cheese re position etc ridge?

Ec way west gfs centre about 10w just sw of uk?

Trough to west=ec over e states

Gfs over Greenland about same position as ec has ridge! And more marked

So little faith in upper air this morning!

gfs is most like last evening output from noaa

Gfs is more

Edited March 3, 2012 by johnholmes

[ribster]

Except that the latest GFS 06z (normal caveats apply) shows a total contrast to the 0z, with HP dominant throughout FI, mild temps and NO SNOW. It is of course interesting to look at FI, but at the moment it is rather pointless as the models have not got a clue, swinging wildly from one run to another. It looks like there is going to be cold moving down from the pole and there is a possibility it may influence our weather but I suspect it will be on the periphery as usual, and PM excursions may be our best shot of some wintry stuff. However there is a solid chance, which is better than December & January, when there was little hope, so you never know.

I think you've still rather missed the point, it's the model thread so it's all up for discussion, even the CFS and it's far far FI. It seems to me that some (and rightly so) are interested in discussing the scenarios that the models throw up and what those charts 'would' deliver if they came to fruition. It isn't a forecasting thread, trying to pinpoint what weather is just around the corner. For those reasons and more besides, FI is never pointless.

[nick sussex]

I think the best that can be said for the output today is that its at least showing some varying solutions and has moved away from the flat zonal pattern of yesterday, whether we see this more amplfiied pattern survive is another matter.

The recent winter has often thrown up more amplified solutions past 168hrs but these have failed to verify, personally I'd prefer to see the ECM trend verify, its been a long time since we actually saw a sunshine and wintry showers type scenario, at this time of year those showers could bring quite alot of rainfall which is certainly needed for parts of the UK aswell as here in sw France where we've had only 30% of the normal February rainfall.

The ECM and GFS operational runs are poles apart with the former moving the main PV into Scandi and the latter digging troughing into the mid Atlantic which forces high pressure further north over the UK.

Looking at the UKMO further outlook 6-15 day outlook that looks more inline with the GFS output than the ECM with it mentioning the chance of more settled conditions once again.

In terms of the possibilities of some snow off that shortwave on Sunday its very marginal, I think for any settling snow you'd probably need some decent elevation but these set ups can throw up surprises, its a shame we didn't see this set up a few weeks back, at that point it could have been a big snow event, its often the way, the best set ups tend to appear at the wrong time of year!

Certainly something to keep an eye on, much depends on the intensity of the precip and it's likely to be one of those scenarios where one place might get snow and ten miles away just rain.

Edited March 3, 2012 by nick sussex

[J10]

For those looking at areas likely to see snow this week, you could have a look at the Alps forecast thread for the week ahead.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z again shows a midweek cold zonal blast mainly for northern britain with wednesday being the peak of the strong cold westerly with wintry showers and even some snow although most of the snow probably on northern hills, then a bit milder with wet and windy weather as depressions form along the line where the arctic airmass meets the warmer tropical maritime airmass. High pressure again features strongly after next week with some lovely spring weather but no sign of the siberian cold spell as the gfs 00z showed.

[johnholmes]

having a look at the factors to consider regarding the low for tomorrow

Sunday and the low-on sat 3 march 12.pdf

[IDO]

First Summer forecast I have viewed:

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvcaptainbob.php?ID=304

Although it is for April & May, it does suggest that the long range models indicate that as we enter May the HP will have less influence with a LP's dominated scenario for much of the month and heading into the start of June and probably beyond?

Who would have thought it!

[Frosty.]

The latest meto update reads very similar to the Gfs 06z later in FI with anticyclonic conditions practically nationwide and with above average temps from mid month although even though the pattern looks generally benign, there would probably be some unsettled interludes but the high pressure theme does seem a good bet towards mid march onwards.

[karyo]

First Summer forecast I have viewed:

http://www.weatherwe...nbob.php?ID=304

Although it is for April & May, it does suggest that the long range models indicate that as we enter May the HP will have less influence with a LP's dominated scenario for much of the month and heading into the start of June and probably beyond?

Who would have thought it!

I like the sound of that! Hopefully, it will keep the summer heat at bay.

Karyo

[IDO]

The latest meto update reads very similar to the Gfs 06z later in FI with anticyclonic conditions practically nationwide and with above average temps from mid month although even though the pattern looks generally benign, there would probably be some unsettled interludes but the high pressure theme does seem a good bet towards mid march onwards.

MattHugo81

Just looking at the medium to long term (days 7 to 14) & a new signal developing for perhaps pressure to rise across the UK near mid-month

03/03/2012 13:04

&

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&DAY=20120302

Yes, signs are now tilting towards a mild settled March, after the next 5-7 days. That will be nice, as this week was very pleasant.

[mackerel sky]

Desperately need rain here in East Northants. Anglian water are upto something in Melchborne to bring in water from Grafham Water which hasn't suffered as badly as Pitsford Water. Which is annoying as they are closing the road to the nursery I take my son to. A wet spring is to be welcomed in these parts.

[Cheshire Freeze]

some real weird people on here ... all they want is the summer heat at bay and rainy days yaaay!

I'd certainly take a wet, cool summer and IMO those wishing for the hot and dry with attendant droughts are more weird......though I suppose it's ok if standpipes are your thing

No sign of anything really wintry in the models once again today.....though I stand by my prediction of a N'ly/NE'ly dominated 2nd half of March.

[Frosty.]

No sign of anything really wintry in the models once again today.....

What about the Ecm 00z showing a more amplified upstream pattern with an Arctic blast? considering how desperately poor the majority of the last 4 months have been from a cold perspective, the latest ecm looks like trending very wintry..of course the 12z could be a lot flatter or more anticyclonic and milder.

Edited March 3, 2012 by Frosty039

[Cheese Rice]

I'd certainly take a wet, cool summer and IMO those wishing for the hot and dry with attendant droughts are more weird......though I suppose it's ok if standpipes are your thing

No sign of anything really wintry in the models once again today.....though I stand by my prediction of a N'ly/NE'ly dominated 2nd half of March.

If the GFS is right there could be quite a lot of snow tomorrow.

We'll have to see if the NMM upgrades the situation like the GFS has.

[IDO]

What about the Ecm 00z showing a more amplified upstream pattern with an Arctic blast? considering how desperately poor the majority of the last 4 months have been from a cold perspective, the latest ecm looks like trending very wintry..of course the 12z could be a lot flatter or more anticyclonic and milder.

It should be zonal next week so a good chance of some wintry stuff (transitional?) the further north and to higher ground. But we really need a PV lobe to visit us to get anything interesting for us down south, otherwise it is just frontal stuff that goes as quickly as it arrived.

[johnholmes]

The GFS and NAE still have differences over how much is going to fall out of the sky tomorrow for this area, Somewhere between 6 and 14mm it seems. As to where and if any snow then NAE seems not to favour it whilst GFS does so another problem waiting for a solution. I cannot see, where the rainfall is heaviest giving evaporative cooling effects, that areas with some elevation will not get a covering, say ground above about 150 metres with it sticking above 200-250 metres, so the southern edge of the Peak District (assuming it gets some of the heavier bursts of rain) seems a prime candidate. The Chilterns and similar hilly areas further south as well?

Edited March 3, 2012 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

It should be zonal next week so a good chance of some wintry stuff (transitional?) the further north and to higher ground. But we really need a PV lobe to visit us to get anything interesting for us down south, otherwise it is just frontal stuff that goes as quickly as it arrived.

The latest meto update is not really entertaining the Ecm 00z op run as a viable option sadly but it made me briefly happy at the thought of an arctic blast towards the middle of march because of the increasing effects of the march sunshine on brewing homegrown wintry showers rather than the winter wishbone effect due to lack of convection. To be honest, after such a dire winter, anything cold from now into april will be a bonus as far as i'm concerned.

[IDO]

After Monday GFS 12z has south of Birmingham under HP right through till 19th March, apart from about 36 hours!

Very mild at times:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=300;file=ukmaxtemp;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9;

But average (+) the majority of the run after Monday.

Pretty flat pattern:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=168;file=h500slp;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9;

With the Jetstream tending to be well to the UK's North:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=252;file=npsjet;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9;

No sign of PV split all the way through and at the end of FI:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=384;file=npst850;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9;

Very little rain in the SE apart from Sunday/Monday and maybe two other spells, throughout the run.

[Frosty.]

After Monday GFS 12z has south of Birmingham under HP right through till 19th March, apart from about 36 hours! Very mild at times: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=300;file=ukmaxtemp;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9; But average (+) the majority of the run after Monday. Pretty flat pattern: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=168;file=h500slp;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9; With the Jetstream tending to be well to the UK's North: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=252;file=npsjet;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9; No sign of PV split all the way through and at the end of FI: http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120303;time=12;ext=384;file=npst850;sess=4b6cba4f46459bf2e23c30788f4b80d9; Very little rain in the SE apart from Sunday/Monday and maybe two other spells, throughout the run.

Hmmm yes, not the best run for wintry prospects I agree.

[karyo]

Hmmm yes, not the best run for wintry prospects I agree.

The UKMO is even less promising although I can't view the 144 hours chart as it is faulty on meteociel.

Karyo

[Cloud 10]

The UKMO is even less promising although I can't view the 144 hours chart as it is faulty on meteociel.

Karyo

Here it is in all it's glory.

[camiscool]

is that a warm chart cloud?

[karyo]

Here it is in all it's glory.

Oh good God! lol

Thanks for posting.

Karyo