Model Discussion And Chat 19th Feb.2012

[Cloud 10]

is that a warm chart cloud?

Looks like a fairly mild in the south,colder in the north sort of chart with bands of wind and rain moving

through followed by blustery showers.

The word "zonal" springs to mind.

[Cheese Rice]

If the ECM is correct and we see the PV over to our north east forcing the high north over the North Atlantic then we need to focus on it coming in post T168. We see it retreating to Scandinavia between T168-T192, this is the period to watch.

Edited March 3, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[karyo]

If the ECM is correct and we see the PV over to our north east forcing the high north over the North Atlantic then we need to focus on it coming in post T168. We see it retreating to Scandinavia between T168-T192, this is the period to watch.

To be honest, I'd be surprised if the 12z ECM is similar to the 0z.

Karyo

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Since this is the model discussion thread it seems appropriate to mention what the models are showing....even if it is FI. I don't see anyone taking them as gospel, but just expressing an interest in proportion to the extent of agreement between them.

Sorry I will shut up next time before I issue a simple opinion

[NO LONGER POSTING]

surrey - it aint that straightforward. you need to look at ops with extreme caution at that range but if you find the ens are clustered in agreement, then you have something to 'hang your hat on'. i would say that at the moment, the chances of low heights in an area just north of the uk stretching around into the north sea in ten days time are very strong. whether that delivers a westerly, souwester or northerly is dependant upon where all the other features position themselves.

Sorry not as educated in weather like a lot of you on here Just a simple opinion I have a much better understanding of how a business works though LOL!

[Summer Sun]

ECM has a mixed bag so far tonight

unsettled

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm241.gif

slowy becomes settled from the west with strong winds for the far north west

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm481.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

turns unsettled again

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

then high pressure returns

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

[leemondo]

ECM has a mixed bag so far tonight

unsettled

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm241.gif

slowy becomes settled from the west with strong winds for the far north west

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm481.gif

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm721.gif

turns unsettled again

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm961.gif

then high pressure returns

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Mate, you should change your weather preferences to "High Pressure" :lol:

[suxer]

Mate, you should change your weather preferences to "High Pressure" :lol:

I know how can anybody like mild weather in winter early spring the can usually get mild weather at least 9 months a year,bizarre

[alex12]

In this setup if dewpoint is below 0c will all precip fall as snow?

[SP1986]

I know how can anybody like mild weather in winter early spring the can usually get mild weather at least 9 months a year,bizarre

hmm! weather preferences don't quite work like this!

I haven't really posted much as it's so benign recently, waiting for something of interest to pop up to make model watching interesting. Nothing of note on the horizon that really grabs your attention.

Potential for snow tomorrow in some favoured parts could generate some interest though, I'm not sure it'll favour those on low ground looking at the dewpoints though!

[bluearmy]

Sorry not as educated in weather like a lot of you on here Just a simple opinion I have a much better understanding of how a business works though LOL!

and from what i read it got a polite answer. i doubt that there are many on here who are 'educated' in weather. i suspect nearly alll are 'self taught'. like you and your business ? if you can find the time, it isnt difficult to grasp the basics. many of us manage to make it appear that we know far more than we do. a bit like business again !!

BOM follows the ecm 00z run whereas the ecm 12z in fi holds back a segment of p/v near the pole. a far more likely solution than a full on vacation to scandi. no strong sign currently that the azores high influence will drift away with re-inforcements continually being fed east off the se of the states. will have a look later to see whether the naefs or ecm was closer to the mark on thursday re troughing/ridging to our east in a week or so.

[Paul]

Quick animation of the rain, sleet, snow tommorrow from the 12z nmm:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=1019;sess=

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly looks like typical spring type weather coming up with windy weather and a mix of PM and then TM airmasses over us for next week, although if recent history is anything to go by, watch that PM shot downgrade! However the trend is still there for high pressure to never be too far away but it certainly won't be dominating the outlook by any means.

Today runs by all models appear to upgrade the height rises around the eastern side of the Arctic and into Russia but we are approching the time of year where cold from an NE'ly source will be hard to reach us but something to keep an eye on potentially as we head towards the middle of March.

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=316&y=152

18z gefs ensembles

warmies pick the main gfs run

coldies pick the control run :rofl:

[KTtom]

If ever there was a chart to sum up winter this is it....Deep cold PV entranched over Greenland, High presuure to the North east ....stalemate and were stuck firmly between the two!

I for one will be hoping for no Russian/Scandi highs next year.

[Welsh_Weather]

If ever there was a chart to sum up winter this is it....Deep cold PV entranched over Greenland, High presuure to the North east ....stalemate and were stuck firmly between the two!

I for one will be hoping for no Russian/Scandi highs next year.

Thats a bit of a bold thing to say. The reasons that the Russian/Scandinavian high didn't work was the strong PV over Greenland and the persistent Azores high. The high to our. North east just needed a little help.

[bluearmy]

No Russian/scandi highs does at least allow for lee northerlies as depressions crash into scandi. I suspect the poster was hoping for a greeny block in exchange.

still plenty of support for those low north sea height in just over a weeks time. However, growing signs of a possible rise in heights directly to our south in conjunction with some Atlantic troughing to introduce some proper spring conditions. the former still favoured although it would be feasible for it to be transitional to the latter.

[IDO]

The GFS 00z has a mixed 5-7 days coming, with a bit of everything. Then from about the 9th till the 17th HP takes charge and we get settled, mild weather. Though it must be said that the 9th is when the GEFS start to scatter, so a couple of options still possible (as per previous posts):

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=ens;date=20120304;time=00;file=t850London;sess=98412b3d7d45ffdb3cf5c175875c1f56

Late in FI the 0z offers what at the moment looks like another PM excursion:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120304;time=00;ext=384;file=h500slp;sess=533fe73d200bf9617205eab0d5eb7e11;

As with this type of troughing its location, location, location and too early to be hopeful, especially as the Op run, from about T324, although not an outlier, is definetly within the 10% of colder outcomes. This end run is because the Jetstream is being modelled south of the UK, from about T348, after being to our North much of the run.

The ECM to T240 is similar to the GFS in that HP takes over late next week and is with us till the end of the run:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120304/00/ecm500.240.png

The GFS at this stage has a flatter pattern.

So the March forecast is now becoming more refined; little sign of any prolonged cold, alternating the menu between zonal and HP dishes, so a bit for everyone.

[Frosty.]

The ecm has now given up on a cold zonal outlook and is now firmly with the gfs on high pressure taking complete control by the end of next week onwards with the jet being forced north, a very benign outlook with above average sunshine and variable temps but never cold although some frosty nights but the coming week looks like starting cold and wet in the southeast but fine elsewhere, then tuesday is a getting worse sort of day as pressure falls from the northwest, wednesday looks cold zonal with wintry showers but then less cold and gradually less unsettled by next weekend.

[bluearmy]

Karl, are you really making that statement in respect of one op run from ecm? The spreads are still solid on low heights just to our north in a week, spreading e/se before the ridging follows.

[Frosty.]

Karl, are you really making that statement in respect of one op run from ecm? The spreads are still solid on low heights just to our north in a week, spreading e/se before the ridging follows.

I just think there has been a solid signal from the gfs in recent days for a very anticyclonic outlook and now the ecm has picked up on the same signal, high pressure building from the south seems the logical way forward after the mixed zonal week ahead.

[johnholmes]

briefly back to today and the 09z chart shows rises of +2mb over Ireland with the largest falls over central southern England of about 2.5mb; thus the centre is slowly deeping in that area as the whole thing is moved east on/ahead of the upper trough driving it. Expect the low to be about 1010mb as it moves over SE England perhaps southern East Anglia before moving out into the southern N Sea.

[johnholmes]

I just think there has been a solid signal from the gfs in recent days for a very anticyclonic outlook and now the ecm has picked up on the same signal, high pressure building from the south seems the logical way forward after the mixed zonal week ahead.

all 3 of the anomaly charts support his idea although they have differing ideas on just where the main centre (upper) will be in 10-14 days time. The ECMWF-GFS solution is over southern England/NE France. The NOAA idea seems less definite about this. Although it keeps an upper ridge over/in the vicinity of the UK and has done for several days.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z becomes very settled under high pressure from 120h

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[bluearmy]

all 3 of the anomaly charts support his idea although they have differing ideas on just where the main centre (upper) will be in 10-14 days time. The ECMWF-GFS solution is over southern England/NE France. The NOAA idea seems less definite about this. Although it keeps an upper ridge over/in the vicinity of the UK and has done for several days.

agreed john although i wouldnt be at all surprised to see that north sea drop in heights at the end of next weekend give us a less than settled start to next week.