Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[coram]

Well I hope for some more dry and sunny weather. We had 15 hours of snowfall today/yesterday which in rain terms is quite alot.

Most of the country is actually doing fine for water levels so I couldn't care less that the water companies in the South East have poor water management.

Besides April looks like it could be quite wet for the south and wintry for the north which should help water levels in the south east.

You should worry about water shortages in the South, because if this effects economic output there could be an impact on the subsidies that can be provided to northerners.

[Aaron]

Well I hope for some more dry and sunny weather. We had 15 hours of snowfall today/yesterday which in rain terms is quite alot.

Most of the country is actually doing fine for water levels so I couldn't care less that the water companies in the South East have poor water management.

Besides April looks like it could be quite wet for the south and wintry for the north which should help water levels in the south east.

If the West Midlands and the South West are declared drought-ridden, then the vast majority of the UK's population will be in drought, including parts of Yorkshire. This will in turn push up food prices, and food such as potatoes and carrots will be poor quality due to lack of rainfall.. this will have a negative impact on most of the country, especially England and Wales, so I think it's highly ignorant for people to make these kinds of comments that they 'don't care', after all, Yorkshire Water is guilty of bad water management too.

[Nights King]

If the West Midlands and the South West are declared drought-ridden, then the vast majority of the UK's population will be in drought, including parts of Yorkshire. This will in turn push up food prices, and food such as potatoes and carrots will be poor quality due to lack of rainfall.. this will have a negative impact on most of the country, especially England and Wales, so I think it's highly ignorant for people to make these kinds of comments that they 'don't care', after all, Yorkshire Water is guilty of bad water management too.

West country is a way off from any drought as is a fair portion of country. As someone that likes a bit of fly fishing I can assure you there is no shortage in the large resoivours here and I have seen them far lower in previos years!

I would welcome a nice dry summer for a change as it is a rare and mythical beast here!. We are after all an island that gets alot of rain and I'm sure it will get plenty of rain again soon enough so lets all chill out and enjoy it while it lasts and get the hose at the ready, if your allowed to that is

[Polar Maritime]

GFS and ECM this morning is still showing unsettled cool/cold conditions throughout again, especialy over the bank holiday weekend.

[IDO]

Polar Maritime's above post is a bit misleading. GFS 0z is showing average April temps through most of the run; with only 4/5 patchy frosts forecast and they were in prone areas, not widespread events, probably dependent on cloud cover. The cooler temps are in the T500s, whereas the T850s remain in the low negatives. Ground temps are therefore tempered compared to the recent warmth but nothing extraordinary. The Easter weekend for the SE has temps between 12-14 (max).

The main conclusion from the GFS chart is the potential for rain and minimal sunshine. The ensembles reflect high confidence for the next two weeks; members are clustered for most of the run. Very few members are tempted by > -5 T850s (London) with the majority around 0c so no real upper cold on the horizon for the foreseeable.

Edited April 5, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[shedhead]

Certainly plenty of cold (relatively), wet synoptic around this morning, with April shaping up very different to last year, at least for now. Sods Law looks to have played a major part re the hosepipe ban in the east, with rain now very much on the agenda going forward.... panic measures yet again!

[Polar Maritime]

Polar Maritime's above post is a bit misleading. GFS 0z is showing average April temps through most of the run; with only 4/5 patchy frosts forecast and they were in prone areas, not widespread events, probably dependent on cloud cover. The cooler temps are in the T500s, whereas the T850s remain in the low negatives. Ground temps are therefore tempered compared to the recent warmth but nothing extraordinary. The Easter weekend for the SE has temps between 12-14 (max).

The main conclusion from the GFS chart is the potential for rain and minimal sunshine. The ensembles reflect high confidence for the next two weeks; members are clustered for most of the run. Very few members are tempted by > -5 T850s (London) with the majority around 0c so no real upper cold on the horizon for the foreseeable.

I was talking of the UK as a whole as being cool/cold and unsettled overall. Yes, you could pinpoint the S/E could get max 14c if the cloud breaks. But with a cool N/W Polar Maritime airflow and cloud cover, it realy won't feel warm at all.

Edited April 5, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[lfcdude]

West country is a way off from any drought as is a fair portion of country. As someone that likes a bit of fly fishing I can assure you there is no shortage in the large resoivours here and I have seen them far lower in previos years!

I would welcome a nice dry summer for a change as it is a rare and mythical beast here!. We are after all an island that gets alot of rain and I'm sure it will get plenty of rain again soon enough so lets all chill out and enjoy it while it lasts and get the hose at the ready, if your allowed to that is

[

The only reason the Kennet is low is because Thames water takes water from it then after its done with it puts it back into the Thames!

But yeah looks unsettled, and i see the hose pipe bans our now effect in the east so get out and wash your cars in the showers

Edited April 5, 2012 by lfcdude

[Summer Sun]

GFS is once again quite unsettled for much of its run this morning with some typical Bank holiday weather on offer, its not untill from 336h that high pressure shows signs of re-building

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Edited April 5, 2012 by Gavin D

[Thundery wintry showers]

The slack cyclonic outlook shown by GFS/ECMWF/UKMO from T+120 onwards would probably mean plentiful rain but not minimal sunshine- we'd probably get a mix of sunshine and sharp showers from that with widespread hail and the chance of some thunder. Sunshine and rainfall are not always inversely related, as any spell of "anticyclonic gloom" will illustrate.

However, "cloudy" certainly looks like a fair summary of the upcoming Easter weekend, with high pressure well out to the west and weak fronts circulating around it. Friday to Sunday will be cloudy with bits and piece of light rain, while Easter Monday is progged to be somewhat wetter- many of us may well get a dull wet day, in the transition to the brighter showery weather projected for the middle of next week.

Some of the longer-range outputs indicate low pressure eventually sinking southwards giving us an easterly- this would replace sunshine and showers with drier sunnier weather in the west, but cloudier weather in the east. At the moment it is still uncertain whether the low pressure will get far south enough for that.

[Glacier Point]

Some of the longer-range outputs indicate low pressure eventually sinking southwards giving us an easterly- this would replace sunshine and showers with drier sunnier weather in the west, but cloudier weather in the east. At the moment it is still uncertain whether the low pressure will get far south enough for that.

This is somewhat to be expected Ian given the modelling of the MJO, towards a phase 1 type evolution. I wouldn't rule out some transitory height rises to the north-east although I suspect we're looking at the longwave trough sticking around for a while, particularly so given the way the upstream profile looks like. Quite a refreshingly seasonal pattern of weather at the moment. Wonder if May will follow the script ?

Edited April 5, 2012 by Glacier Point

[skidders]

If the West Midlands and the South West are declared drought-ridden, then the vast majority of the UK's population will be in drought, including parts of Yorkshire. This will in turn push up food prices, and food such as potatoes and carrots will be poor quality due to lack of rainfall.. this will have a negative impact on most of the country, especially England and Wales, so I think it's highly ignorant for people to make these kinds of comments that they 'don't care', after all, Yorkshire Water is guilty of bad water management too.

Why do people have to bicker about opinions? It does not matter in the slightest what opinions people have about the weather they would prefer to see. The weather will happen and not be influenced by opinions in the slightest!! Just get back to model reviews, which is what this thread is all about!

[Alex]

This is somewhat to be expected Ian given the modelling of the MJO, towards a phase 1 type evolution. I wouldn't rule out some transitory height rises to the north-east although I suspect we're looking at the longwave trough sticking around for a while, particularly so given the way the upstream profile looks like. Quite a refreshingly seasonal pattern of weather at the moment. Wonder if May will follow the script ?

Quite a similar pattern now to April 2008. As you say will May follow the script? CFS v2 has been progging drier and warmer for a while - just wonder whether this will come off and help deliver a summery spell.

Also do you think with the earlier stratospheric final warming coming up and the peak of -qbo expected hopefully sooner rather than later we can hope for at least a better start to summer GP?

Edited April 5, 2012 by Alex

[Robbie Garrett]

I have created a dedicated Atlantic Storm thread if anyone's interested in discussing... http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72965-atlantic-storms-spring-2012/

Looks like quite a potent period of some decent extreme weather...especially the word rain!!

[picog]

Things looking decidedly average for April if this is to be believed:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[Glacier Point]

Quite a similar pattern now to April 2008. As you say will May follow the script? CFS v2 has been progging drier and warmer for a while - just wonder whether this will come off and help deliver a summery spell.

Also do you think with the earlier stratospheric final warming coming up and the peak of -qbo expected hopefully sooner rather than later we can hope for at least a better start to summer GP?

Have been looking at the QBO a lot recently. Analogues suggesting that we'll go into a period of dwindling westerly / easterly mean zonal winds across the mid and high latitudes but no big switch around a la 2007. The core of the easterly QBO likely to lift off the equator into the tropics. With no factors for a big negative tendency in angular momentum around, probably above average May conditions look favourite at the moment, although not massively so.

[Robbie Garrett]

Have been looking at the QBO a lot recently. Analogues suggesting that we'll go into a period of dwindling westerly / easterly mean zonal winds across the mid and high latitudes but no big switch around a la 2007. The core of the easterly QBO likely to lift off the equator into the tropics. With no factors for a big negative tendency in angular momentum around, probably above average May conditions look favourite at the moment, although not massively so.

How we looking for the Hurricane Season? Below Average, Average or Above Average??

I have read the following, and apparently "

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high."

"The combination of a weak el Nino that should develop with higher than normal pressures over the eastern and central Atlantic can create strong low level easterlies and enhance shear. Additionally, a less active African tropical wave train is possible as a result of the disruption of the Asian subcontinent monsoon. These are all factors that contribute to the idea of decreased tropical activity for 2012."

Edited April 5, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Cheshire Freeze]

How we looking for the Hurricane Season? Below Average, Average or Above Average??

I have read the following, and apparently "

The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high."

"The combination of a weak el Nino that should develop with higher than normal pressures over the eastern and central Atlantic can create strong low level easterlies and enhance shear. Additionally, a less active African tropical wave train is possible as a result of the disruption of the Asian subcontinent monsoon. These are all factors that contribute to the idea of decreased tropical activity for 2012."

Not really the thread for this- I don't know the answer as haven't looked into it. Further ahead, I have heard whisperings that very early signals re enso state and stratospheric initiating conditions may yield an interesting winter 2012-2013. Nothing but pure speculation at this point though.

GP, yes a warm start to May looks favoured to me, though I believe later into May and into June could become increasingly wet with June being the wettest month of the summer IMO. How are you seeing things pan out on the precipitation front?

Onto the models .....some 'if only' charts on offer over the past few days with a predominantly N'ly air source showing which most probably have provided some people with fun and games 2-3 months ago. Showers look the name of the game next week at this point; as is the nature of showers some may miss most of them and get a largely fine week with cool nights.

Edited April 5, 2012 by CreweCold

[Alex]

GFS 12z looks very cyclonic again tonight with the trough close to or over the UK, showers or longer spells of rain are likely. There is a small period later on in the run where northwestern areas are under a temporary ridge. In summary Though we are looking at a wet cool first half of April with little to suggest that summer is the season following spring.

[Robbie Garrett]

Not really the thread for this- I don't know the answer as haven't looked into it. Further ahead, I have heard whisperings that very early signals re enso state and stratospheric initiating conditions may yield an interesting winter 2012-2013. Nothing but pure speculation at this point though.

GP, yes a warm start to May looks favoured to me, though I believe later into May and into June could become increasingly wet with June being the wettest month of the summer IMO. How are you seeing things pan out on the precipitation front?

Onto the models .....some 'if only' charts on offer over the past few days with a predominantly N'ly air source showing which most probably have provided some people with fun and games 2-3 months ago. Showers look the name of the game next week at this point; as is the nature of showers some may miss most of them and get a largely fine week with cool nights.

Regarding the Winter Period, I haven't really looked at that yet at all. . But seeing as you've mentioned it, and this is a model thread, what have you heard regarding the period in terms of what modelling shows???

I am interested in the Atlantic Hurricane season as that tends to give an idea of how good the weather would be here in the UK for Summer, generally speaking anyway. I think what's most decisive is that we are now entering a unsettled pattern, this is nothing I've seen for at least a few years. (Well it feels like that anyway) in terms of rainfall. But looking at the long range CFS, that's also painting a fairly decent picture.

I think I said a few weeks back, that the CFS is definitely hinting on something... and many members also said it had a good winter, but looking at it for an average guess it picked out the cooler April and unsettled conditions.

I've just picked out a trend regarding May, so let's see how it develops.. as the rest of May looks unsettled.

Also this part of July has been extremely consistent, as the counts down the numbers.

Edited April 5, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Cheshire Freeze]

Regarding the Winter Period, I haven't really looked at that yet at all. . But seeing as you've mentioned it, and this is a model thread, what have you heard regarding the period in terms of what modelling shows???

I am interested in the Atlantic Hurricane season as that tends to give an idea of how good the weather would be here in the UK for Summer, generally speaking anyway. I think what's most decisive is that we are now entering a unsettled pattern, this is nothing I've seen for at least a few years. (Well it feels like that anyway) in terms of rainfall. But looking at the long range CFS, that's also painting a fairly decent picture.

I think I said a few weeks back, that the CFS is definitely hinting on something... and many members also said it had a good winter, but looking at it for an average guess it picked out the cooler April and unsettled conditions.

I've just picked out a trend regarding May, so let's see how it develops.. as the rest of May looks unsettled.

Also this part of July has been extremely consistent, as the counts down the numbers.

Near neutral Enso state coupled with slow formation of vortex which may be slightly less intense.

As for the charts you've posted- they're along my line of thinking, though think July may be drier overall than they anticipate.

[Milhouse]

I am very suprised at the persistance of that low on the ECM 12z. Just as it looks to be weakening it moves west back into the Atlantic and strengthens again. However it shows the possibility of pulling in some slightly warmer upper air temperatures as the low slips south over Iberia. Remaining unsettled throughout.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO on meteociel, what an error chart for Easter tuesday, would be very snowy as well

[damianslaw]

Some very different synoptics on offer this evening for the foreseeable future compared to recent months -slow moving sinking trough feature developing over the country as we move into next week, as the jet stream sinks well to the south and we see strong heights rises both to our NW and NE - these are synoptics we haven't seen since last summer.

So a preety unsettled and very cloudy outlook on the cards with temps near or slightly below average and showery outbreaks of rain over the weekend, but any rain next week will be very heavy I imagine and very persistant - the low pressure and trough could well hang around for 4-5 days. These are the type of synoptics often associated with April, a month when northerlies and easterlies reach their yearly maxim.

Despite the rather poor outlook for those wanting sunshine and warm temps, I am very happy with the outlook, rather have these type of synoptics now than in a couple of months time.

[Weather Wizard]

Some very different synoptics on offer this evening for the foreseeable future compared to recent months -slow moving sinking trough feature developing over the country as we move into next week, as the jet stream sinks well to the south and we see strong heights rises both to our NW and NE - these are synoptics we haven't seen since last summer.

So a preety unsettled and very cloudy outlook on the cards with temps near or slightly below average and showery outbreaks of rain over the weekend, but any rain next week will be very heavy I imagine and very persistant - the low pressure and trough could well hang around for 4-5 days. These are the type of synoptics often associated with April, a month when northerlies and easterlies reach their yearly maxim.

Despite the rather poor outlook for those wanting sunshine and warm temps, I am very happy with the outlook, rather have these type of synoptics now than in a couple of months time.

I am not sure how persistent the showers will be after monday as there will be quite a strong breeze so any convective cells should move along quite quickly. There may be quite a lot of convection due to the cold air mass but that isn't persistant. (thursday may see a band of organised rain)