Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not sure about the "lots of cloud" assessment here- I would agree if we were talking some sort of modified north-easterly, but those deep northerly regimes at this time of year usually translate to a fair amount of sunshine with scattered wintry showers, though it does look like we may not get potent enough shower activity to bring widespread snowfall to low levels.

Before that, plenty of heavy and thundery showers mixed with sunshine for most of us during Tuesday-Thursday, although coastal parts of NE England will probably miss out, thanks to an area of more persistent rain tomorrow and then the winds off the North Sea during Wednesday and Thursday.

[johnholmes]

Longer term - its a tricky set up, but as I said yesterday I can't see the overall pattern changing anytime soon, I suspect GFS is being a little too bullish today with its atlantic attack, and I suspect ECM is overinflating the rise of pressure to our NE, a half way house probably most likely outcome i.e. trough stuck across the country, remaining chilly/cold in a light northerly/northeasterly drift with lots of cloud.

There seems little sign, indeed if any sign, of any marked let alone major change to the wave length pattern in the upper air. Possibly by the month end rather more of a westerly component to the upper flow with perhaps the upper ridge more in evidence to the south west. No sign of any return yet of significant warmth. At least in the relatively short term some of the badly affected drought areas could see some help from rainfall totals.

[La Bise]

With this setup are showers prevalent during the day leaving the nights relatively dry?

[johnholmes]

With this setup are showers prevalent during the day leaving the nights relatively dry?

that is the pattern at the moment LB

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is unsettled for its run untill 288h when high pressure begins to build in

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[The PIT]

Well although it takes it time around Friday we start to draw in some cold air from the north. This pattern sticks around for a while giving us good odds for the first wintry April for a long time. A very interesting weather pattern.

[coldwinter]

Well it looks as though next weekend could be quite wintry, with some snow showers coming in off a cold north to north easterly, very interesting and potent for April, can't believe theres not any more chat on this.

Ryan.

[shotski]

Well it looks as though next weekend could be quite wintry, with some snow showers coming in off a cold north to north easterly, very interesting and potent for April, can't believe theres not any more chat on this.

Ryan.

If we were still in Jan or Feb this place would be rammed, and its still a week away so well into FI land at the moment.

On the plus side Gavin hasn't posted a chart showing high pressure for nearly 3 hours so we must be onto someting.

Shotski

[SP1986]

I don't see much scope for snow showers at low levels, but at moderate levels (2-300m asl) I think there's a chance at seeing some snow showers, and this actually is within grasp of a fairly sizeable population. In fact in Scotland, snow showers could get pretty close to sea level, but wntry showers look like starting over higher ground, generally, in the next week.

It looks like it will be a cold April with synoptics persistently pointing to a northerly dominated theme.

No real change looks like a occurring in the development as yet, so this will translate to cool, showery weather, which patchy frosts in inland areas (more widespread inland at first)

[Polar Maritime]

No real change to the GFS, a typical 80's style April on the cards.

Heavy and persistant showers will form over Tuesday/Wednesday to to bring rain/hail/sleet and snow for high ground in the North, with the odd isolated rumble of thunder. Temps will be around average or just below for the time of year, but blowing on a brisk N/W it will feel much cooler, especialy in any heavy showers. Showers could merge together to bring persistant rain in some areas for S/E Scotland and N/E England.

Towards the end of the week winds will turn to a more N/N/E airflow, bringing much colder conditions for the UK, with the risk of sleet and snow to lower levels from the Midlands North. With daytime temps below average, and frosts at night as sky's clear.

[cyclonic happiness]

Absolutely stunning winter charts again this morning, almost everything you could want from a chart in january or february *sighs*.

Well at least there is plenty of rain, better to get it out of the way this month and some of next ay?

[Anthonyb]

Absolutely stunning winter charts again this morning, almost everything you could want from a chart in january or february *sighs*.

Well at least there is plenty of rain, better to get it out of the way this month and some of next ay?

Exactly, these charts are great for jan/feb, not for April away from Scotland.

It's incredibly difficult to get snow down here anyway in April so I really don't get why people (southern members)are getting excited for those charts at weekend when it will definitely not snow down here -

At the moment the charts show Wintry precip midlands northwards, snow for Scotland and hills of northern England. But even this is FI and it will certainly downgrade nearer the time as always the case

[Weather Wizard]

No real change to the GFS, a typical 80's style April on the cards.

Heavy and persistant showers will form over Tuesday/Wednesday to to bring rain/hail/sleet and snow for high ground in the North, with the odd isolated rumble of thunder. Temps will be around average or just below for the time of year, but blowing on a brisk N/W it will feel much cooler, especialy in any heavy showers. Showers could merge together to bring persistant rain in some areas for S/E Scotland and N/E England.

Towards the end of the week winds will turn to a more N/N/E airflow, bringing much colder conditions for the UK, with the risk of sleet and snow to lower levels from the Midlands North. With daytime temps below average, and frosts at night as sky's clear.

Can't see any persistant rain this week

[Aaron]

Exactly, these charts are great for jan/feb, not for April away from Scotland.

It's incredibly difficult to get snow down here anyway in April so I really don't get why people (southern members)are getting excited for those charts at weekend when it will definitely not snow down here -

At the moment the charts show Wintry precip midlands northwards, snow for Scotland and hills of northern England. But even this is FI and it will certainly downgrade nearer the time as always the case

Why are you assuming people are looking for snow? I think the majority of us are just interested in this weeks convection potential.

[picog]

The ensembles offering good support for a cold shot next weekend. Even the London set are chilly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[Polar Maritime]

Can't see any persistant rain this week

As you speak central Scotland and the far N/E have had persistant rain all morning, with a mix of sleet and snow, even down to low levels....

[johnholmes]

Can't see any persistant rain this week

there is a difference between persistent showers and persistent rain-the post you quote uses the term showers which could quite easily give a spell of more persistent rain in places-quite typical of cold pools slow moving over inland areas.?

I'll post the list of stations and rainfall totals from tomorrow for each 24 hour period from 00z today and see just how much falls for different stations in each 24 hour period-we can then tot them up and see how 'widespread' any shower activity has been?

I am a little lost as to why,, with a slow moving cold pool over the country, your meteorological knowledge seems to make you suggest some parts will not see in excess of half an inch of rain at least?

Edited April 10, 2012 by johnholmes

[Timmytour]

While it's true the models would be generating a lot more interest were we in Jan or Feb, there is something else that could still yet generate a lot of interest in them...

http://www.telegraph...was-bad....html

As we pass the second anniversary of the eruption of a big Icelandic volcano that caused air travel chaos in Europe, the possibility of another much bigger one erupting would see all eyes focused on the modelling of those northerly winds, not just for the threat to air travel but potentially health reasons as well.

[syed2878]

The telegraf link u posted doesn't work.

[coldwinter]

While it's true the models would be generating a lot more interest were we in Jan or Feb, there is something else that could still yet generate a lot of interest in them...

http://www.telegraph...was-bad....html

As we pass the second anniversary of the eruption of a big Icelandic volcano that caused air travel chaos in Europe, the possibility of another much bigger one erupting would see all eyes focused on the modelling of those northerly winds, not just for the threat to air travel but potentially health reasons as well.

Thanks for link, that definately has the potential for some devastating consequences, its very worrying and a very real threat, an eruption is overdue and i think all eyes would be fixed on the model output if it erupted. Reagarding this weekends northerly surely we would see some snow showers down to low levels, not just low levels in the north but further down the country?

Ryan.

[cfallon]

The telegraf link u posted doesn't work.

It works for me!

[syed2878]

Ah it could be my phone. Thx for the reply.

[glosteroldboy]

Thanks for link, that definately has the potential for some devastating consequences, its very worrying and a very real threat, an eruption is overdue and i think all eyes would be fixed on the model output if it erupted. Reagarding this weekends northerly surely we would see some snow showers down to low levels, not just low levels in the north but further down the country?

Ryan.

Yes although the media do tend to recyle the katla story on a regular basis and the 2 year anniversary of that other one no one can spell seems perfect chance to mention it again. According to the Iceland Met site (these are the guys to follow, if anything is going to erupt they will tell people about it) I can't find any recent mention of increased seismic activity at Katla, the last mention I can find about that is back in October last year (possibly what the journo is refering to but is rather out of date now if nothing has happened since) and even then they state there is no sign an eruption is imminent. It's of course expected to blow sometime but might be 1, 10, 20, 50+ years off

Edited April 10, 2012 by glosteroldboy

[Bottesford]

Lets keep this eruption talk to the science forum and this thread the preserve of the weather models. Thanks!

[Cheshire Freeze]

The bit in bold is contradictory- the main characteristic of a shower is its short duration (relative to organised bands of rain from frontal systems), with 'shower' being the descriptive term.

Almost reads like you're slowly backing away from your original assessment over the weekend that this week was going to be one dominated by persistent rainfall. Now it's "persistent showers".

How long do you want to keep this going?

Jeez, why do people have to be SO pedantic? I give up sometimes I really do......I'm guessing he meant slow moving showers due to slack winds. Why do people have to pick others apart so much for tiny details such as this. It's hardly a wind up post.