Model Discussion - 10th March Onwards

[4wd]

It will be more likely to come about if it shows again at any point the next day or two.

It's sure to suddenly warm up again sooner or later.

[snowmadchrisuk]

It will be more likely to come about if it shows again at any point the next day or two.

It's sure to suddenly warm up again sooner or later.

Yes I would image so as any High pressure dominated weather as we head into May should at least throw up some Warm days . The 12z wants to bring an Easterly in at the end of next week , but with the time of year it never get's that Cold and High pressure sticks around and Europe starts to warm up. The Models seem to be swinging quite a bit in there ideas for next week , nothing unusual of course but it does mean something a bit warmer could show up at fairly short notice. I love my Cold and Snow but would rather have Warm sunshine and thundery showers at this time of year.

[Cheese Rice]

Could see showers with a more wintry element tomorrow across northern England with cooler uppers of around -3. Perhaps wet snow in the heaviest of bursts across high ground.

[Wilks]

warm weather and high pressure are boring

Well it's fotunate for you that you live where you do then!

[Anthonyb]

warm weather and high pressure are boring

Well your lucky you live in Glasgow then, as warm and sunny weather is even more rare there than most of the UK.

I love warm weather and high pressure, just as well I live in the SE.

[johnholmes]

model discussion?-I know understanding the heading is really difficult!

[Robbie Garrett]

Hmm interesting, gotta funny feeling...about this one, but it's been showing a few times in the runs. Right at the last hour of the run, but hey looks fun, and quite wet... I take it storms grown over France will head this way??

+15/+20*C 850HPA flooding into continental Europe, early May if it progresses your looking at very similar temperatures to August surely in terms of sun strength?? Quite possibly I would say you'd have an equal chance of getting into the mid to high 30's surely?? if that low pressure gets stuck nicely where it is and drags all that hot african continental air with it??

3000+ cape -8 lifted index :o

Edited April 11, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[mushymanrob]

happy new year!

hmmm... alot of pretty usual april weather being shown. nothing extreme but rather chilly, especially this mornings ukmo which is reminiscent of the awful spring of '75. the gfs though sticks to its general suggestion that the atlantic will move in on monday.

generally its good news for those needing rain, bad news for anyone looking for more of marches glorious sunshine, but overall pretty much 'normal'.

[SP1986]

I don't think there is too much unusual on the charts, Below average of course, trending to average. (although that's exactly what we would expect.

Potential inland frosts and potentially snow to moderate hills based on the broad GFS outputs. Plenty of showers for lowland and coastal England (below about 200m for the former), so this should be a good dose of rain for the gardens and the general situation. But away from coastal areas, I wouldn't go planting your bedding perhaps until May or June this year! Either way not much is going to grow in this cool weather, but the rain will be welcomed by many, especially in the south east.

I'd say this is pretty much standard fare weather wise for the foreseeable future!

[Bottesford]

Cool and damp sums it up with the Atlantic sending depressions across us. So more general rain rather than the sunshine & (so far around here) odd shower of this week.

So very useful weather for water resources and hopefully something we can get out of the way now rather than late May onwards!

[phil nw.]

No change in the unsettled outlook from the 12z outputs we have so far.

Both GFS and UKMO show many more showery days to come with the exception of Sunday where it looks dry for many as a weak ridge moves across the country from the west.

However this looks to be only a brief respite as more low pressure moves in from the Atlantic early next week to continue the unsettled theme.

Looking at the 00z mean heights outputs for 8-10 days ahead- low pressure very much around the UK

suggesting more of the same-rain/showers with temperatures rather depressed untill at least the end of next week.

[Cloud 10]

This evening's ECM agreeing with the other models showing a decent low pressure over the country

around the middle of next week,which should provide a good dollop of rain to area's that need it,and

maybe something wintry in northern parts as mentioned in the met office outlook.

[Anthonyb]

No change in the unsettled outlook from the 12z outputs we have so far.

Both GFS and UKMO show many more showery days to come with the exception of Sunday where it looks dry for many as a weak ridge moves across the country from the west.

However this looks to be only a brief respite as more low pressure moves in from the Atlantic early next week to continue the unsettled theme.

Looking at the 00z mean heights outputs for 8-10 days ahead- low pressure very much around the UK

suggesting more of the same-rain/showers with temperatures rather depressed untill at least the end of next week.

Thanks for your post, looks very unsettled with lots of ppn about.

And to think only 3 weeks ago we were having to endure endless media/TV reports/shows about a drought that could last 18 months.

Quite laughable really

[shedhead]

Thanks for your post, looks very unsettled with lots of ppn about.

And to think only 3 weeks ago we were having to endure endless media/TV reports/shows about a drought that could last 18 months.

Quite laughable really

Was always a non story, yes it's been very, even exceptionally dry but nature always balances itself out and a protracted wet spell was absolutely guaranteed at some stage. Looking at the overnight runs from both GFS and ECM there will be plenty of rebalancing going on across the next fortnight, a pattern which I expect to continue into May and even early June, by which time the sensationalist reporting of drough/water shortages will be long forgotten. How many times have we heard so called experts saying it will take x long for this to be put right and x amount of this to redress that, only to find it takes half the time and half the amount?

Edited April 13, 2012 by shedhead

[Weather Boy]

I do find the above two posts quite annoying because 1. They are not about models; 2. They are ridiculous, in that the weather in question hasn't happened yet; and 3. Even if they did happen, the models as a max only go out to 29 April, and the idea that two weeks max of wet weather will cure 18-24 months of below average rainfall in the east and south is risible.

Sorry, not wishing to create an argument, but I had to get that off my chest.

Anyway, to drag things onto topic, despite what I said above, yes the models do seem very consistent in signalling some very unsettled weather over the next week or so, with the coming weekend being something of the calm before the storm with what I would interpret to be cool, fairly non-descript weather with scattered showers, mostly on exposed coasts and perhaps more especially in the east/south-east.

Further ahead, into early next week there is some pretty vigourous depressions forecast, although I find the movement of the main low of the GFS a little surprising. I would expect it to track E-NE towards central/southern Scotland, but instead it heads towards SE England where it gradually fills just beyond on the continent. I would think that there is a good chance of this track being modified in future runs, but the principle of low pressure dominated weather and a decent spell of wet weather for all or virtually all looks hard to get away from.

Looking into FI, currently staying unsettled, but that contrasts with FI very recently, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see more settled conditions again progged for w/c 23/4, but all to play for.

[Summer Sun]

Although the models are showing an unsettled outlook most places in the drought areas are only seeing around 100% max of the average rainfall, now is that enough to ease the drought?

Edited April 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[Thundery wintry showers]

As quite often happens this showery spell is likely to be followed by the return of the Atlantic. Before that, sleet and snow showers are possible across parts of Scotland and northern England on Saturday, though with a ridge of high pressure nosing in they will be well-scattered, and just isolated showers on Sunday as the coldest air spreads south. Thus, snow will probably not be particularly widespread this time around.

A rather deep Atlantic depression will be knocking on our doorstep on Tuesday/Wednesday so the chance of some very strong winds, although it is too far out to have much confidence on the strength and track of the depression. The GFS outputs currently suggest a continuation of the sunshine-and-showers theme, although with a stronger jetstream and Atlantic lows moving across there is always a higher chance of fronts producing periods of cloudier rainy conditions.

Regarding the drought, it is actually pretty serious in East Anglia and south-east England and the current unsettled weather is by no means guaranteed to solve the problems, though it will help prevent the drought from getting any worse.

[johnholmes]

the 3 500mb anomaly charts, whilst not totally in agreement over the past 5 days or so, are really all suggesting that the upper air pattern over the UK for most of the period heading towards the month end will be cyclonic and with relatively cold air aloft with the 500mb flow from north of west much of the time. Links further out tend to supprt this prediction. So, with all the twists and turns that the synoptic outputs will undoubtedly show from run to run day to day the overall pattern seems pretty clear.

Unsettled for most for much of the time, on the cold rather than the warm side. Thus, the SE'ern quarter of the UK could see considerable help towards getting some decent rainfall totals both from frontal and showery type weather. Little sign if any of any prolonged warmth for anywhere showing at the moment.

[Weather Boy]

Although the models are showing an unsettled outlook most places in the drought areas are only seeing around 100% max of the average rainfall, now is that enough to ease the drought?

They're interesting charts that I don't recall seeing before Gavin. Where did they come from?

It seems to me that until recently the long-term picture for this month has been of an average, possibly slightly wetter than average month rather than some kind of drought saviour, but because that is so much wetter than recently, it has been wrongly viewed as a potential saviour.

At my location we are currently well below average for April (have yet to reach 10 mm) so rainfall in the coming fortnight would have to be well above average for April to overall be a wet month, let alone a very wet month.

[Polar Maritime]

They're interesting charts that I don't recall seeing before Gavin. Where did they come from?

It seems to me that until recently the long-term picture for this month has been of an average, possibly slightly wetter than average month rather than some kind of drought saviour, but because that is so much wetter than recently, it has been wrongly viewed as a potential saviour.

At my location we are currently well below average for April (have yet to reach 10 mm) so rainfall in the coming fortnight would have to be well above average for April to overall be a wet month, let alone a very wet month.

Here you go WB

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[shedhead]

Here you go WB

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

I would not put too much store in those charts. Given the latest guidance all areas look set to see plenty of rain across the next week to 10 days and probably well beyond, so I'd be very surprised if come the 22nd the large area of Central and SE England in yellow has only seen the 50-75% of normal rainfall indicated.

[tinybill]

morning all just look at f1 on bome looking more like a winter set -up then a summer one !!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php

[Summer Sun]

morning all just look at f1 on bome looking more like a winter set -up then a summer one !!!

http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

Just a reminder F1 is motor racing

FI is the term used for the charts

Edited April 13, 2012 by Gavin D

[Scorcher]

morning all just look at f1 on bome looking more like a winter set -up then a summer one !!!

http://www.meteociel...bome_cartes.php

What is a 'winter set-up' exactly? Many on these forums would love a chart like that in winter, but they rarely seem to happen.

[Gael_Force]

Just a reminder F1 is motor racing

FI is the term used for GFS

Just a reminder that fantasy island is a term coined on the virtual weather blogosphere - we can call the lower-res output anything we like! The term is not confined to GFS - the chart in question is from the Australian model. If you wish to be pedantic, at least be accurate.

Edited April 13, 2012 by Gael_Force