UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012

[Stuart]

Thanks coast for that

[Lauren]

Wednesday looking increasingly supportive of conditions for thunderstorms/convection.

Came across this guys thought i would share it;

Awesome picture!

[Convective]

Hey folks, just looking at the radar, what exactly is this from over Anglesey? I have seen it a few times before but I don't think its precipitation. Some kind of error..?

[viking_smb]

looks quite heavy according to met office radar

[Convective]

http://www.srh.noaa....pler/ap_max.htm

Thanks alot!

[Coast]

Things seem to be coming along nicely for some potential activity later on tomorrow through Ireland, Wales and the Midlands:

An interesting area to watch in East Anglia too:

[Lewis]

Amazing the difference in models to the charts Coast posted.

The NMM high resolution going for the energy to be greater around the East Midlands, East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire throughout the course of tomorrow, pretty much from the word go too.

CAPE of 1100 and a Lifted Index of -4 could really spark some severe storms.

Dew points around 13c

Temperatures around 16-17c

Only problem I can see is the initial cloud cover in the morning and throughout the day, may be lacking the trigger;

Edited June 5, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[wimblettben]

Looks like a messy convective period Wednesday. Profile not as unstable for parts of the country on recent runs compared to prior outputs, with relatively warm air at 500hPa transferring across SW and southern UK later on in the day on the eastern flank of the upper low resulting in only gradual lapse rates here, with steeper lapse rates over N/NE England, Scotland and NI given sub -20C air at aformentioned level.

Little breezy in the boundary layer; insolation probably not as strong as we'd like. Winds aloft look generally weak across most unstable regions, although there might be some overlap of vertical wind shear and marginal SBCAPE across central England (as per 06z run from the GFS). GFS modeling some sig. dry air from the mid levels on its 00z run, though not so pronounced on 06z output.

In all, an unimpressive convective outlook, and one that doesn't look to improve for the foreseeable.

The conditions seem pretty favourable to me for storms on Wednesday looking at the charts.

[Lewis]

The conditions seem pretty favourable to me for storms on Wednesday looking at the charts.

That's because he made a conclusion based on one bad/poor set of charts/runs yesterday, which was very premature.

Conditions are favorable for thunderstorms, unless we wake up tomorrow or come tonight and the charts take a huge backwards step & the GFS/NMM was over doing the potential which I doubt at this time frame.

Or because conditions around his neck of the woods are not supportive, in which tomorrow will be the breeding ground instead of the prime location.

Lewis

Edited June 5, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Lewis]

Very nice SKEW-T charts

[Lewis]

They may be uncertainty with regards to our longer term pattern, but there's no uncertainty that during the short term we are going to experience a more fresher, low pressure dominated pattern of weather, with some possible convective weather for central & eastern parts tomorrow.

Another change is occurring now as a LP system off the Atlantic becomes established and moves North Eastwards towards the United Kingdom.

There is currently an area of precipitation giving moderate to heavy rainfall for central southern regions and the South East, this area of precipitation will continue to edge North Eastwards during the course of this evening exiting East Anglia during the early hours.

As we head further North, they may be a period of precipitation overnight tonight for Central and more Eastern parts of England, pushing through to Northern England.

The heaviest of the precipitation is more likely to be across central areas, mainly pennine areas.

Overnight tonight temperatures will be much more respectable than of late, with temperatures expected to be 10-11c quite widely, with the highest of the temperatures across the South East where they could reach 12-13c, although locations experiencing prolonged rainfall may have lower temperatures, of around 8-9c.

As we head in to tomorrow morning it will be a cloudy, dreary start for many, with extensive cloud cover, very little in the way of breaks to start off with.

Throughout tomorrow temperatures will be a little up on today with highs of around 15-16c quite widely, with some areas possibly hitting 17-18c.

Throughout the course of tomorrow showers will develop fairly quickly, heavy in places with localised thunderstorms. I'm keeping an eye on a trough tomorrow drawn on the fax charts for the South East and East Anglia, they could be some very sharp showers with thunder and lightning developing tomorrow, then as we head in to the afternoon and early evening the risk extends Northwards across the East Midlands, Lincolnshire and then through to East Yorkshire/Humber area.

As you can see on the below image, some energy is available from the word go in the form of moderate levels of CAPE and a negative Lifted Index, covering a bulk of Eastern and central England, and also parts of Wales.

As we head in to the early evening tomorrow CAPE and LI values become more prominent across N Yorkshire, East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the East Midlands;

These showers may become more organised and slow moving giving torrential downpours for many of these parts, and also the risk of some moderate to severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning.

Although cloud cover will be rather extensive, and it's a feature that many members may think will play a big part tomorrow of conditions not being favorable for thunderstorms, as always this is always a possibility, a risk we run with, but with an approaching trough, I think this will aid the activity and be the trigger in terms of convection.

Dew Points are favorable, in the low to mid teens, although it would be good if we could hit maybe 14-15c, something we need to keep an eye on tomorrow morning and as the afternoon develops.

As we head on through the week the unsettled theme will continue with weather fronts making their way in off the Atlantic, South Western and Western areas look to bear the brunt, with Ireland possibly taking a battering from a deepening area of low pressure, something to keep an eye on no doubt.

But it's certainly an unsettled spell of weather to come for many of us

Regards,

Lewis

[Chris.R]

No mention of NW england then, what a surprise! I think it looks good for here as well, unless the wind turns too westerly or northwesterly tomorrow in which case we're buggerd.

[Lewis]

No mention of NW england then, what a surprise! I think it looks good for here as well, unless the wind turns too westerly or northwesterly tomorrow in which case we're buggerd.

There is a chance of some heavy showers, but not as a higher risk than other areas mentioned Chris.

[IanR]

No mention of NW england then, what a surprise! I think it looks good for here as well, unless the wind turns too westerly or northwesterly tomorrow in which case we're buggerd.

Dont expect any thundery stuff over here tommorrow, the North West shield is very active this year , more so than I have ever known, its looks to be an East affair yet again.

[Chris.R]

Sorry if I sound like i'm moaning, I am just fed up with not having any storms here and living in what seems to be the most snowless and stormless part of the world. I know it's not just me though.

[IanR]

Sorry if I sound like i'm moaning, I am just fed up with not having any storms here and living in what seems to be the most snowless and stormless part of the world. I know it's not just me though.

I dont mind you moaning, I feel the same, although I am not quite in the no storms club yet, i might be getting a membership soon the way this year is panning out. Last year and the year before we had a few moderate storms, there where 3 days of consecutive thunder in wigan but I missed 2 of them due to being in work in St Helens, the storms developed over me but only became electrical as they went over Wigan and Bolton, one produced a tornado which touched down in Westhoughton . I think that used up the qota of thunder days in Wigan.

Then one evening a few weeks later I witnessed a good distant lightning show over merseyside way, the whole cumolonimbus structure was lighting up with the fairly frequent lightning. That was good to watch from my back window with a glass of red

[Supacell]

I'm still annoyed that there has been nothing over the 4 days i'm off work and then tomorrow looks good. The earliest I can escape work is 3pm but it looks like one of those days where storms will occur earlier than that and so by the time I leave work everything will be well east.

[Mapantz]

Showers just starting to come in to view on the radar. Certainly a good chance of thunder during the heavy showers, but likely to be fast moving.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lots of sferics being picked up just a few km to my east in the last hour. Haven't seen or heard anything though unfortunately...

[Evening thunder]

Why is it that yet again, the best conditions pass over the SW in the morning too early for solar heating to have much benefit, then move off east to reach the east with perfect timing?

[tinybill]

people begining to take note of storm th/fri heading our way

[Andy Bown]

Why is it that yet again, the best conditions pass over the SW in the morning too early for solar heating to have much benefit, then move off east to reach the east with perfect timing?

2 Wednesdays in a row! Although I doubt tomorrow will start as sunny as last week with the trough/Occlusion being several hours earlier than then,

[wimblettben]

people begining to take note of storm th/fri heading our way

Are there going to be more risks for thunderstorms on thursday and Friday then?

[IanR]

Moan alert again! something else that used to bug me, when storms sometimes develop on the Irish mainland and move east to the Irish sea ,as soon as they touch the Irish sea its like an instant death, fizzling to almost nothing, and no chance of making the coast of the North West , this is almost every time

But, this does not happen as often when storms develop across mainland England then travel east to the North Sea, somtimes they even pep up as they head out into the North sea and travel maybee up to 100 miles before fizzling,

Why?

[Lewis]

I honestly think N Lincolnshire and Hull/Humber area will be battered by a massive storm tomorrow afternoon/early evening.