UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012

[Coast]

Nothing from any dedicated storm sites today and anything forecast looks to be enjoyed by the Dutch and Belgian's again:

All in all, a very quiet period coming up for a week, with nothing looking likely through out the UK and the near mainland Europe:

[Arnie Pie]

A follow on from the first time lapse.......same cell leaving over the city centre and like all good storms, departs with a rainbow

i have a couple of videos to edit which hopefully will show some epic rain fall and a brief bit of rotation

Thanks for all of your comments/ likes........makes the efforts worthwhile

Edit; it`s the last day of Brumcams bandwidth quota today ........and were in pocket so were running a larger screen resolution............ any feedback would be good

Edited May 31, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[MP-R]

Well yesterday was a disappointment here in these parts. I was in London for the day so caught a light shower at about 5pm that lasted all of 10 minutes then that was it. My housemates say there was a rumble of thunder in Egham itself and a short sharp shower but nothing that impressive. All eyes on the next opportunity.

[Supacell]

Not very happy to see the GFS showing nothing stormwise over the 4 days when I am off work and then back to storms on Wednesday when back in work. How can I storm chase at this rate!!!

[Coast]

The best GFS longer range can offer currently is way into the afternoon next Wednesday:

[stormchaser1]

NAH thunder but just a had a downburst 11mm accumulkated in the last hour

[Arnie Pie]

I have posted a half hour video to my You tube channel ( which is in my signature below ) until i can work out how to edit down into a more forum friendly size..........this video contains some good up drafts and a bit of rotation and the start of the rain.....The second, which will be posted there later, is just rain...although tropical at times and one of the best downpours i have ever witnessed

(even thought it was to intense for my crappy focal system on my video camera)

Edit 2nd video now uploaded to channel in the name of "Rain

new HD Updraft timelapse, also in "Weather" playlist........Shorter and slower than the original

Edited May 31, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[ZONE 51]

Well yesterday was a disappointment here in these parts. I was in London for the day so caught a light shower at about 5pm that lasted all of 10 minutes then that was it. My housemates say there was a rumble of thunder in Egham itself and a short sharp shower but nothing that impressive. All eyes on the next opportunity.

Was there any storms scooting around Surrey or south/west London?, i'm quite sure i heard several deep rumbles late afternoon on wednesday, and there was some impressive looking cells south of here so i can imagine it was thunder! Edited June 1, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

GFS currently cranking up the risk of a storm late on Wednesday in the South:

[IanR]

bbc weather just mentioned 'maybe even some thunderstorms tommorrow' ..only for you know where

[Supacell]

Looking through all the charts, and to my untrained eye, i would say there is a possibility (very slight) of something on the far south coast tonight and into the early hours, and the highest chance being towards the SE part of that. If I lived near the south coast of Kent I would be keeping a curtain open but the risk looks low.

[Sprites]

bbc weather just mentioned 'maybe even some thunderstorms tommorrow' ..only for you know where

N.E France and Holland... , at least the "weather" is coming from the south west or south, gives us a chance of warmth and convection

[Methuselah]

As a guess, I'd expect to some potentially lively convection around , if and when LP sits slap-bang over the UK?

[Lauren]

Normally I wouldn't wish heavy rain and thunderstorms away but we are having a big BBQ Monday and it is forecast to rain all day, so you can have my share Storm Starved people.

[A.J]

hmm....sferic detected between Swindon & Oxford on the front edge of the rain band....false detection or the real deal?

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Met Office forecasts continue to mention the 'risk of thunder', it seems very unlikely to me, especially up here in the East Midlands.

This is the forecast for my region...

This Evening and Tonight:

A cloudy night, a few spots of rain at first then more persistent rain moving north into southern counties late evening and extending across all areas through the early hours, becoming heavy at times, with a risk of thunder. Minimum temperature 6 °C.

Sunday:

A cloudy, wet day with a decidedly cool feel in a northeasterly breeze and further rain throughout the day, heavy at times with a risk of thunder. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Updated: 1540 on Sat 2 Jun 2012

Some other regions have 'thunder' in the forecast for tonight, but only the East Midlands forecast mentions thunder tomorrow.

Surely not likely?

[chapmanslade]

I think the spheric in UK is anomalous although there is a cell approaching the Channel Islands that may become electrified. Lots of activity kicking off in France now with a supercell being reported near Tours

[A.J]

I think the spheric in UK is anomalous although there is a cell approaching the Channel Islands that may become electrified. Lots of activity kicking off in France now with a supercell being reported near Tours

Good call!......quite a potent storm just to the west of the Cherbourg penninsular affecting the Channel Islands, tracking NEwards....Certainly worth members along the sussex coastline keeping their eyes peeled to their south/south west

[Cloud 10]

Ooh la la!

[cartedj]

That cell in the channel looks to hit the IOW in the next couple of hours if it keeps its potency. Still building looking at Rain Toady.

[slb97]

Evening, there does seem to be a few bits and pieces seemingly building 'out of nowhere' and that one near guernsey has definitely built up quite a lot - it seems to be heading more for Sussex than Hampshire but you never know. I hope some people get a good surprise later on!

[Chris K]

Look at the bright echoes erupting SW of Bristol. No electrical activity yet but a big blob of very heavy rain at least!

Edited June 2, 2012 by Chris K

[Chris K]

Think it's unlikely there'll be lightning associated with the rainband transferring north, given poor lapse rates and overall instability. Heavy radar echoes are indicative of a rather moist low level profile, characterised by a substantial 850hPa theta-e temp. increase being advected north and east across the south, with PWAT amounts of around 3cm or above.

Yea I wasn't expecting anything electrical anyway. Some torrential rain starting here where I live now though.

[Guest QuantumSnow]

Good call!......quite a potent storm just to the west of the Cherbourg penninsular affecting the Channel Islands, tracking NEwards....Certainly worth members along the sussex coastline keeping their eyes peeled to their south/south west

Yep, few sferics out in the channel, although I'm in the East of the county and quite near the coast... actually as I type this there are some quite big hailstones coming down.

[Andy Bown]

The main band has raced N/NE this evening, so unless it's going to stall and head back South it'll leave much of Southern Britain in drier

conditions into tomorrow - far different to expected even on forecasts this morning.

In the drier conditions can we expect thundery downpours to develop during the day?

I assume there will be some sunshine burning through early mist/low cloud and that temperatures will be much warmer than the low teens

which seemed likely - could be quite a 'fruity' atmosphere?