UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May Into June 2012

[chapmanslade]

The main band has raced N/NE this evening, so unless it's going to stall and head back South it'll leave much of Southern Britain in drier

conditions into tomorrow - far different to expected even on forecasts this morning.

In the drier conditions can we expect thundery downpours to develop during the day?

I assume there will be some sunshine burning through early mist/low cloud and that temperatures will be much warmer than the low teens

which seemed likely - could be quite a 'fruity' atmosphere?

I think a wrap around occlusion will indeed push the western edge of the rain back south later on Sunday and I think there will be a fair bit of low level clag in the way of any sun. Nevertheless it does seem to have pushed further N than suggested.

Have friends in a tent near Le Mans this weekend - not sure I'd want to be there just at the moment !

[MP-R]

An hour or so of very heavy/torrential rain has nearly half filled the rain guage already but it does look like that is it now. Fingers crossed that means for better conditions of thundery downpours tomorrow than just low cloud that was originally forecast.

[chionomaniac]

Just to report we have a few flashes and thunder here. Torrential rain as well. A pleasant surprise.

Edited June 2, 2012 by chionomaniac

[Liam J]

I've heard some pretty loud rumbles here but I can't see it being thunder as the radar is dry this far north.

[jojobut]

Here in Burgess Hill too, two flashes and bangs, sent sky signal off and hammered it down!

[Convective]

WOW! Look at this beast in northern France!

[MPfreeUK]

Just a flash and rumble seen and heard in Crawley, reflected of house to north so looks like to south of me

[Biggin]

hmmn some meat heading ne towards London way ??

Edited June 2, 2012 by Biggin

[Evening thunder]

Just to report before I go to bed finally, we had a proper torrential downpour earlier in the evening peaking around 8:35-8:40pm. No thunder but you could have expected it at any moment. It came from mid-level cloud that made it go quite dark quite quick at one point. Overall 13.8mm fell with a peak rainfall rate of 118.8mm/h on the Davis VP2.

[Coast]

Just to report we have a few flashes and thunder here. Torrential rain as well. A pleasant surprise.

Always when I'm at home then!!!!

[Stuart]

my eyes are on friday were there could be storms but to far out

[Lewis]

Wednesday looking increasingly supportive of conditions for thunderstorms/convection.

Came across this guys thought i would share it;

[Supacell]

It is sooo annoying that Wednesday is looking good after 4 days off with not a sniff of storm activity but rather a plunge back to February

[wimblettben]

This is the day 3to 5 forecast for Southwest England:

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Continuing unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain for most throughout. Showers may be heavy and thundery in places, particularly on Wednesday, but there will be some sunnier spells.

So Wednesday does look the best day for anything thundery. Of course most people will be back at work then. So this may not actually be a good thing.

[Staffordshire]

I can tell the story of wednesday already... west middlands will be the breeding ground for storms which will affect EM,EA and lincolnshire... again.

[Lewis]

I can tell the story of wednesday already... west middlands will be the breeding ground for storms which will affect EM,EA and lincolnshire... again.

East Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire

[gottolovethisweather]

What about today?

Some pokey looking cells popping now in places down south. Hell, the sun even came out a few moments ago and there is continual reference to possible thunder for some on BBC N24.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Lewis]

What about today?

Some pokey looking cells popping now in places down south. Hell, the sun even came out a few moments ago and there is continual reference to possible thunder for some on BBC N24.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Possibility, minimum cape and a LI of 0, some ML CIN too

[gottolovethisweather]

Possibility, minimum cape and a LI of 0, some ML CIN too

So in non technical speak, a slim chance I believe is what you are saying.

FWIW, it is warming up nicely here in Newbury too, currently 16c with a DP of 15.5c so far better than most people expected.

Game on, just maybe?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Supacell]

Tell me about it. You couldn't make it up. Beautiful warmth and sunshine for over a week whilst at work, then the weekend arrives and BAM! Doom and gloom. Then, Mother Nature announces that convective storm risk day service will resume the moment I'm back in the cage that is work.

Just so timely.

Well I am off work for 2 weeks on last week June/first week July so expect the week before to bring a thundery plume and then cold, windy and wet for those 2 weeks followed by a return to summer from the 9th July onwards!

Having said that, if it looks to go that way then I am getting a last minute break to the continent.... so expect Europe to be plunged into its coldest, wettest summer fortnight for 100 years lol.

[Lewis]

So in non technical speak, a slim chance I believe is what you are saying.

FWIW, it is warming up nicely here in Newbury too, currently 16c with a DP of 15.5c so far better than most people expected.

Game on, just maybe?

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Heavy showers with a rumble of thunder yep, conditions are not favorable for anything organised, or severe, so the odd isolated thunderstorm is possible, but thundery shower more likely.

[syncmaster]

8c that was a shock to the system, heavy rain most of the day....

[Lewis]

A lot of sharp heavy showers to come today mainly for Eastern areas and central parts of England as we head throughout the course of today.

Small chance of the odd thundery downpour but showers will be slow moving at times increasing rainfall totals that we have had over the past 24-36 hours.

As we head in to Wednesday it's all change again, an area of low pressure from the SW will head towards the U.K we will pick up a S/SW flow, milder upper 850s will be associated with the low pressure, we start to see temperatures rise ever so slightly around the 17-19c mark, with dew pew points in the low to mid teens, as ever with a low pressure system with this track and also angle, they will be an increase in convective energy supportive of thunderstorms.

Areas greatest at risk on Wednesday is Yorkshire Southwards through to central England, East Midlands and EA.

Thursday and Friday will be another similar day to that of Wednesday, in the form of heavy showers and local thunderstorms, although the UK will be truly under the influence of the low pressure as it's centered across the spine of the UK, as a result heavy showers will be much more organised and widespread, and they will be more general areas of heavy rain pivoting around the low pressure.

Wednesday and Friday look supportive of thunderstorms but I expect Friday to deliver more so than Wednesday, it may be that we see the CAPE & LI values/amount of energy diminish as we come closer to the said time frames, I will keep an eye on the GFS model, and will update and make a general forecast using the higher resolution model when its in range, being the NMM from Netweather Extra.

Friday 15Z - GFS 00Z

Lewis

Edited June 4, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Coast]

Nothing much for the next day or so, still a possibility of some isolated activity on Wednesday:

[Methuselah]

Thanks for that, Coast.