Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Gavin P]

Hey all,

Here's today's model based video musing: Turning Very Warm (briefly) Next Week;

http://GavsWeatherVids.com

Maybe up to 80f in the extreme by Friday?

Edited June 22, 2012 by Gavin P

[Summer Sun]

Latest longer range met office outlook from July 7th to 21st suggest's rainfall amounts are generally expected to be close to the seasonal average better than nothing I suppose after what we've had so far, expected to be cooler than average away from any sunny periods especially in the south and east

Edited June 22, 2012 by Gavin D

[Gavin P]

BCC 500mbr anomaly for July doesn't look terribly inspiring;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov....5/MD2012065GL_H5M2_1.GIF

Suggestion of troughiness around the UK and a ridge in the Atlantic = Cool and unsettled?

[Robbie Garrett]

As much as this post wont be awe-inspiring, it's a clear fact of matter that with the NAO state in the fashion it is, you cannot expected any heat or guaranteed Summery weather. There is definitely a cycle going on, and that's low pressure after low pressure slamming into the UK. The GFS/CFS and UKMO etc all paint this picture, from short-term to medium and long-range term.

First of all, the CFS is a fairly good indicator of what pattern may prevail and it's heavily indicating low pressure, azores ridge, low perssure, azores ridge for at the least the next 2 weeks.

Secondly, there may be a more settled period mid-July, but nothing yet specific - but then this pattern may revert to a more nominal pattern that we have seen recently.

Thirdly, northern blocking looks to disappear around about late August, early September... so chances are of a repeat of last Autumn there, may be likely.

The last time June provided us with a very high negative low index was June 1998 coming in at -2.72. Not sure what this month currently stands at but it must be quite low.

On another prospect, if you are not to bothered don't read the following but it's rather intriguing me how blocked things are going to become over Grenland this Autumn/Winter and as they currently stand. Going to be interesting that's for sure.

[Gavin P]

Thanks Robbie.

Some real bobby dazzler charts there from CFS.

[Gavin P]

Hey all,

Here's today's model based video musing: Turning Very Warm (briefly) Next Week;

http://GavsWeatherVids.com

Maybe up to 80f in the extreme by Friday?

And straight the way GFS 12z removes next weeks brief warm up!

Its one of those summers isn't it?

[Robbie Garrett]

Thanks Robbie. Some real bobby dazzler charts there from CFS.

It's been throwing these up, here and there... so cannot be specific. But it's definitely showing a continuous blocked regime.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

If the upcoming winter is going to be good then i'll settle for a crap summer

[Summer Sun]

Rain Rain go away come again another year

Yes its another awful run from GFS the hints of warmth next week have gone FI winds more lows up into early July this time they track north rather than south, early July is looking wet

You get the idea as to what the rest of GFS is showing temps are well below average as well, never mind come September we'll be beaking in the high 20's and saying if only it was July

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Edited June 22, 2012 by Gavin D

[Evening thunder]

BCC 500mbr anomaly for July doesn't look terribly inspiring;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma....65GL_H5M2_1.GIF

Suggestion of troughiness around the UK and a ridge in the Atlantic = Cool and unsettled?

Isn't that the complete opposite to what it was forecasting for summer a month or two ago? Oh well I guess it will be right this time, just what seems to happen to any forecast of decent summer weather in recent years..

The GFS still manages to reach 21C across the south next Friday, and it usually under-does maxima by a few degrees, but it's hardly anything to write home about for summer (and verging on FI still):

The UKMO does at least seem a bit more keen on a warmer snap next week, at the moment at least:

Though of course, there's a fair few cooler/more unsettled charts on the models too.

Edited June 22, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Jezzer]

Rain Rain go away come again another year

Yes its another awful run from GFS the hints of warmth next week have gone FI winds more lows up into early July this time they track north rather than south, early July is looking wet

Goodness me, and I thought the summer of 2007 was a shocker! At least that year we had a stunning April. All we've had this year was that spell of settled weather in March and the glorious end of May. If the latest models are to be believed we've nothing to get excited about. Ridiculous and very frustrating!

[Snowy Easterly]

As much as this post wont be awe-inspiring, it's a clear fact of matter that with the NAO state in the fashion it is, you cannot expected any heat or guaranteed Summery weather. There is definitely a cycle going on, and that's low pressure after low pressure slamming into the UK. The GFS/CFS and UKMO etc all paint this picture, from short-term to medium and long-range term.

First of all, the CFS is a fairly good indicator of what pattern may prevail and it's heavily indicating low pressure, azores ridge, low perssure, azores ridge for at the least the next 2 weeks.

Secondly, there may be a more settled period mid-July, but nothing yet specific - but then this pattern may revert to a more nominal pattern that we have seen recently.

Thirdly, northern blocking looks to disappear around about late August, early September... so chances are of a repeat of last Autumn there, may be likely.

The last time June provided us with a very high negative low index was June 1998 coming in at -2.72. Not sure what this month currently stands at but it must be quite low.

On another prospect, if you are not to bothered don't read the following but it's rather intriguing me how blocked things are going to become over Grenland this Autumn/Winter and as they currently stand. Going to be interesting that's for sure.

i know its pointless and off topic but if this northern blocking continues throughout the summer i bet come autumn and winter it will disappear like it did last winter, law of averages

actually i'd rather talk about the winter as this summer is so bad im sick off it

[Summer Sun]

i know its pointless and off topic but if this northern blocking continues throughout the summer i bet come autumn and winter it will disappear like it did last winter, law of averages

actually i'd rather talk about the winter as this summer is so bad im sick off it

Its fairly certain the northern blocking will shift come autumn it can't stay there for ever and wil give us another warm and dry Autumn

[UV-RAY]

Its fairly certain the northern blocking will shift come autumn it can't stay there for ever and wil give us another warm and dry Autumn

The CFS charts are indicating this, though sunshine and warmth in September and October are wasted IMO. It's like snow and cold in Spring.

[Scorcher]

People seem to be picking the worst run now to comment on, ECM is still keen on introducing some warm uppers for a couple of days next week, could become very warm and humid in the south for a time? I can't see anything as bad as some of the weather we've had this week on the ECM and it has been the form horse of late so I'm hopeful GFS will back down somewhat. UKMO also looks reasonable to me for most of next week.

I'm surprised that people aren't picking on the small improvements, not nearly as many deep lows threatening the UK next week it seems.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

well looking deep into fantasy word there rain on the charts to July 7th no sigh of any per-longed warm weather,

[phil nw.]

Please keep discussions based on actual model data and try to avoid speculation on what might happen in Autumn/Winter.

We have had to remove some posts which add nothing to this thread.

In here we want posters talking about what the models actually show.

There are other threads for general weather discussions including a Summer thread to say how disgusted you may be with all this rain.

Thanks all.

[Summer Sun]

Some warmer air clips the south later next week but it don't last as it is follwed by the next low pressure system

This is quickly turning into another typical so called UK summer.

Edited June 22, 2012 by Gavin D

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Some warmer air clips the south later next week but it don't last as it is follwed by the next low pressure system

This is quickly turning into another typical so called UK summer.

the Wed and thurs look hot surely? for south, and the friday is FI anyway, want it warm and sunny from 25th June to 08 July, then unsettled after

[Summer Sun]

the Wed and thurs look hot surely? for south, and the friday is FI anyway, want it warm and sunny from 25th June to 08 July, then unsettled after

Although the uppers are high a lot depends on cloud cover as to how warm / hot it gets? All looks only a short lived spell though with July starting unsettled and cool for the time of year

Anyone going on a UK holiday in the next few weeks look like seeing more of this weather sadly with only short lived warm / hot spells

[NickR]

http://www.meteociel...hp?mode=2&ech=6

well looking deep into fantasy word there rain on the charts to July 7th no sigh of any per-longed warm weather,

Or, indeed, any prolonged warm weather either.

[Bobby]

ECM looks a bit different to the other models for Saturday's night's rain with central areas taking the brunt:

Then after 1-2 dry days it starts to turn unsettled again with bits of rain and showers moving up from the SW on Tuesday before our weekly Thursday/Friday washout low makes it's appearance

Edited June 22, 2012 by Barb-

[Terminal Moraine]

The ECM seems more in line with the Fax chart but GFS has Saturday night's low on a more southerly track with southern England getting the bulk of the rain. The Met' Office seem fairly confident that rain will spread to most of England late on Saturday and into Sunday.

[Robbie Garrett]

The CFS charts are indicating this, though sunshine and warmth in September and October are wasted IMO. It's like snow and cold in Spring.

Only pointing out what the models are showing, albeit long-range but to be fair if you have a poor few months, you are likely to have some good weather at the end of it. Anyways those charts already at that time-frame have changed, haven't looked at the 12z/18z update but I look every other day and it's pretty consistent.

I made a post a month or two back stating the CFS had wiped out half of Summer, only a few weeks back did I say it had changed slightly and that any warmth would likely be similar to the blast we had in may, in effect sweeping across us before we even know it. So far the CFS is correct... 22 days into the month it forecast.

However I'd say very good bet of a warm blast next week. With some hints of a Spanish Plume type event, probably last 1-2 days before we again head into a more unsettled regime.

[Lewis]

Well today's set of models have been dire RE storm potential over the next 5 days or so, possibly longer.

Was sign of pressure starting to build from the South, and a possible plume from the near continent with widespread storms, and guess what, yep you guessed it, we end up with a Northerly! Lovely......