Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Summer Sun]

ECM for the end of the week

Low pressure blows that away for Friday temps back to the low 20s for the south

Temps into the high teens by Saturday

Edited June 24, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM hinting at a slightly more settled start to July for the south

Edited June 24, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

Interesting to see hints of heights lowering over Greenland as well, GFS also seems to be hinting at this later on in the run.

[Backtrack]

ECM hinting at a slightly more settled start to July for the south

Not just for the South mate, with that higher 850 line pushing in from the West, with the Azores high present, it'll be settled all over the UK, perhaps the exception being the far North.

Comes in line with Chio's thoughts at the top of the page.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not just for the South mate, with that higher 850 line pushing in from the West, with the Azores high present, it'll be settled all over the UK, perhaps the exception being the far North.

Comes in line with Chio's thoughts at the top of the page.

Jordan...do the charts in question not show a W-E, very flat flow? They do to me and the high only really exerts its influence across the far south. Believe me, in situations like that there would be outbreaks of rain and drizzle in central and northern areas....the charts posted flatter to deceive.

[Summer Sun]

Thursday's max temp is shown to be 25c on the 00z run from GFS

Fair amount of rain around

Storm Chance

Eary July is looking drier for the north west for a time showers for the south still though

I can only guess that the set up will devilver lots of cloud and drizzle with that possible high

Temperatures look like been around the mid teens for most so they will continue to be below average

[Backtrack]

Jordan...do the charts in question not show a W-E, very flat flow? They do to me and the high only really exerts its influence across the far south. Believe me, in situations like that there would be outbreaks of rain and drizzle in central and northern areas....the charts posted flatter to deceive.

No I wouldn't agree, I think it would be a cloudy high due to the positioning of it with a lot of moisture feeding in off the Atlantic, but I don't think it would be unsettled, that pressure is probably high enough to kill most shower activity. I highly doubt that only the far South would be settled, but it's not in the best position for settled summery weather, I agree. Will have to look at the future runs and see if the GFS plays with the idea of moving it to a better position.

[Summer Sun]

Pressure is looking lower now for early July, with next weeks play at Wimbledon looking likely to see several interuptions to play

A weak ridge of high pressure builds but dont expect much sunshine as it's going to contain lots of cloud and moisture if it arrives

The rest of GFS remains unsettled.

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

[Frosty.]

The latest models are suggesting we should make the most of today's fine weather as it looks cloudier tomorrow with sporadic but mainly light rain followed by heavier rain and thunderstorms, the storms most likely on thursday as the heat and humidity peaks with temps around 26-27c in southern areas and 22-24c further north but cooler than that in the far north, the storms on wed night and thursday look most intense across northern england heading up through scotland and n.ireland but some storms may spread north from france into the southeast. By friday it will be turning cooler and windier from the west as the low heads northeast and the influence of the low could last well into the start of next week but there is some hope that as next week goes on, pressure will rise somewhat as the atlantic/azores high ridges towards the uk but further north across the uk it could remain more unsettled and even the south is exposed to some rain at times next week, temps will be up and down, hot for a time in the south and generally warm and humid elsewhere but cooler by friday and a cool, breezy unsettled weekend, especially in northern britain but then temps recovering again next week to average and maybe a little warmer in the southeast.

Edited June 25, 2012 by Frosty039

[ohno]

How is 95% cloud fine weather? the bulk of the country is under a huge blanket of cloud..

[jimbo36]

How is 95% cloud fine weather? the bulk of the country is under a huge blanket of cloud..

Sunny spells all day here, only thin cloud around, hardly a huge blanket

[Frosty.]

How is 95% cloud fine weather? the bulk of the country is under a huge blanket of cloud..

How is 95% cloud fine weather? the bulk of the country is under a huge blanket of cloud..

Yes there is a lot of cloud today but 95%?... away from the far southwest it's a dry and warm day,by far the finest day of the week today (nationwide) as it looks cloudier with patchy rain tomorrow then very warm and humid with heavy showers midweek as the low to the southwest edges closer. Today's cloud is thin and unreliable with some sunny spells in various areas, such as the southeast of england and the northern half of scotland, northern scotland is favoured to be the sunniest part of the uk tomorrow with temps around 16c but rainy and humid on wednesday.

Edited June 25, 2012 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

Yes there is a lot of cloud today but 95%?... away from the far southwest it's a dry and warm day,by far the finest day of the week today (natiowide) as it looks cloudier with patchy rain tomorrow then very warm and humid with heavy showers midweek as the low to the southwest edges closer. Today's cloud is thin and unreliable with some sunny spells in various areas, such as the southeast of england and the northern half of scotland, northern scotland is favoured to be the sunniest part of the uk tomorrow with temps around 16c.

Well that map is wrong as here in the North East we've been under thick cloud all day and still are

[shedhead]

Model discussion??

Still a very disappointing look to things on the latest runs for those hoping for some dry, hot and sunny weather, with the expected warmth during the next few days getting swept away later in the week. Low pressure then looks set to dominate across the weekend, so pretty cool and showery once again for most, with next week seeing yer more rain or showers. Looking deeper into FI there is some hope of pressure falling across Greenland and the Azores High ridging NE towards us, but that's a long way off and it's also an evolution that GFS has touted in the longer range on several occasions recently, so caution advised.

Edited June 25, 2012 by shedhead

[Snowy Easterly]

im only a novice but how are scotland and northern england getting all the rain and storms and the south misses out, our heat is coming up from the south ?

[Gordon Webb]

im only a novice but how are scotland and northern england getting all the rain and storms and the south misses out, our heat is coming up from the south ?

I assume you are referring to the met offices weather warnings , it does seem to tie in with a post made by Frosty039 further up this page about what the current models suggest

[ohno]

Well the suns out in all its glory please please make it last

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is still showing temps of 25c for the south on Thursday with lots of rain / showers around

By Friday temps drop around 8c for some

Edited June 25, 2012 by Summer Sun

[k19]

GFS 12z is still showing temps of 25c for the south on Thursday with lots of rain / showers around

By Friday temps drop around 8c for some

Yes and with the high humidity on thursday it will feel a lot warmer than it is, especially in western areas where the temperature isn't as high and so the rel. humidity is higher. The thundery showers will be nice in that weather. Really looking forward to Thursday as modelled.

[William of Walworth]

People seem to be picking the worst run now to comment on, ECM is still keen on introducing some warm uppers for a couple of days next week, could become very warm and humid in the south for a time? I can't see anything as bad as some of the weather we've had this week on the ECM and it has been the form horse of late so I'm hopeful GFS will back down somewhat. UKMO also looks reasonable to me for most of next week.

I'm surprised that people aren't picking on the small improvements, not nearly as many deep lows threatening the UK next week it seems.

I'm in the early stages of reviewing/scanning recent output, and this thread, having been away for a pretty poor/wet/muddy Somerset festival holiday**

**(in total 27 hours of non stop albeit often light rain added together from Thursday night and Saturday night, although after that damage was done, Sunday and today have been lovely).

But I agree with Scorcher (albeit the above was a from a few pages back. sorry) and that's not just hopecasting either. People seem far too keen to underemphasise those positives (for summer preferrers) that can be found, and there'll always be some.

Also I strongly disagree with the idea a few pages back that the Jet won't properly shift Northwards until September. What a ridiculously 'write off the whole summer' suggestion that is!

Apologies, just realised that I wasn't quoting from the most recent page. Sorry folks. Will catch up more competently ....

Edited June 25, 2012 by William of Walworth

[Summer Sun]

Make the most of the warm / hot spell as temperatures tumble for early July as cold air sweeps down from the north

Maxes of just 9c for some! it was warmer on christmas day

Wet as well

Ground frost possible

Edited June 25, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Later next week and into the 2nd week of July the jet is shown to head north slowly this alows pressure to rise and set's up a north south slipt warmest to the south cooler to the north with low pressure traking north of scotland

Maybe just maybe the second week in July could signal a change for the better if the jet can head north where it belongs giving summer a chance to arrive

Edited June 25, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

Yes some encouraging developments with both GFS and ECM showing signs of moving low pressure northwards which eventually settles over Greenland and allows high pressure to move north over the UK. This may still be in FI but there does seem to be good agreement there.

[swebby]

Make the most of the warm / hot spell as temperatures tumble for early July as cold air sweeps down from the north

Maxes of just 9c for some! it was warmer on christmas day.................

I mentioned something about these min temp maps the other week when it was showing a ground frost for the westcountry (think it was forecast for Monday gone). I am very much a novice but i am struggling to see how these low temps are achieved at this time of year. Sunset is still gone 21.30 for northern UK, can the temp really drop away 10C in a couple of hours?

[syncmaster]

Well the suns out in all its glory please please make it last

well im afraid to say ohno its means very little as we dont no where you are located !!! here in north lincs we had rain this morning and a blanket of cloud

all day not a hint of blue sky or even the sun temps been hovering around 17c pretty much all day..