Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Bobby]

The UKMO shows another low barreling into us as soon as the first departs

Very different to the GFS

[Summer Sun]

Pressure tries to build next week however it looks like containing a fair amount of moisture keeping it rather cloudy and damp at first,mid next week low pressure moves down from the north the northwest of Scotland is likely to see the longest spells of rain with the south and east staying drier at times however most parts are prone showers or longer periods of rain

UKMO is much more unsettled compared to GFS even at 120h

Question is which will be right UKMO or GFS

[bluearmy]

looking at how similar the gefs control is to the op run, i'm tempted to say that gfs will be closer.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is falling into line with UKMO, GFS has little support for a rise in pressure early next week

[Summer Sun]

UKMO remains keen to introduce another new area of low pressure next week, resulting in wind and rain for just about all

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

GFS still has other ideas and builds high pressure however low pressure does win out in the end

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

ECM agrees with UKMO and keeps low pressure firmly in charge

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

A look at the 144h models

UKMO

ECM

GFS

So looking at those its 2 - 1 in favor of unsettled weather returning next week

[shedhead]

Agreed Gavin. I'd like to think GFS will win out with their rather more settled looking evolution at 144hrs, but with both ECM and UKMO both singing from a pretty similar hymnsheet I fear LP will again predominate next week, taking us into week 6 of 13 with still no sign whatsoever of proper Summer.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z has developed a low for the south now on Tuesday

[Bobby]

Looks fun across SW England and S. Wales tomorrow morning

40mm/hour rain rates :o

GFS 06z shows another potentially thundery feature moving up from the S next week

Things still seem to be struggling to settle down

[shedhead]

Doesn't look right to me Summer Sun, but irrespective of this GFS still stick with their steadily improving picture into week 6 of Summer, which atm is a straw to clutch if nothing else!

[Bobby]

Doesn't look right to me Summer Sun, but irrespective of this GFS still stick with their steadily improving picture into week 6 of Summer, which atm is a straw to clutch if nothing else!

The ECM doesn't look great either

[Summer Sun]

Had a look through some of the lesser used models on here and the vast majority go for unsettled weather next week along with UKMO and ECM

GEM

NOGAPS is heading the unsettled way

Its looking increasingly likely that unsettled weather will continue for early July, there are hints of something more settled for mid July (see the weather tweets thread)

[Summer Sun]

GFS sends Tuesday's low away from the UK

UKMO however still has it closer

Longer term GFS keeps summer on hold

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[AWD]

On an positive though, it the GFS verifies then next weekend ( the one after this weekend ) could be a long awaited decent, warm and in places sunny weekend!

[Summer Sun]

On an positive though, it the GFS verifies then next weekend ( the one after this weekend ) could be a long awaited decent, warm and in places sunny weekend!

Maybe for the south but GFS is showing rain for the north, not that warm either with temperatures still below average for just about all

[Summer Sun]

ECM is now following GFS in rising pressure next week

[Alex]

ECM is now following GFS in rising pressure next week

That may be rising pressure but a low is sitting pretty much over the southwest of the country so slow moving rain or showers is likely for some.

[Slowpoke]

The high pressure over Greenland seems to be falling!

I would love nothing more than to have a nice two week heatwave; if only to prove that the Met Office and other companies have no idea what they're talking about since they're now going for a below average July!

Charts looking quite good for next week when it comes to ECM and GFS, a definite step in the right direction.

[Slowpoke]

Can I just add, I don't believe for one second that the next two months will be below average. Of course, I'll eat my words if I'm wrong!

[Summer Sun]

A positive ECM update tonight with high pressure starting to dominate we've had worse over the past 8 weeks or more, pressure rises over the uk and more importantly falls over the key areas of Iceland and Greenland

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

Its a brave call from the met office to go for a below average July at this early stage, we know how quick a hot spell could develop May proved that

There is a corresponding signal for less sunshine than we see on average in July. Similarly, whilst temperature levels are quite uncertain, the chances of very warm conditions prevailing over the period as a whole are considered very low.

Tonights ensembles are moving in the right direction as well becoming drier than of late, could be a fairly dry week for wimbledon next week

[Cloud 10]

Best ECM run of the summer so far from +144 hrs onwards with relatively settled weather for a good portion of the UK.

Could an average July be about to pounce?

[Geordiesnow]

The high pressure over Greenland seems to be falling!

And that is usually significant if we want the jet stream to buckle up to our North to allow pressure to rise, of course the weather does not always go by the rule book but in general in summer, we need greens over Greenland which usually results in lower heights so the signs on today's GFS and ECM runs are encouraging for those who want more in the way of settled weather if albeit no signs of any signficant heat.

[Summer Sun]

Best ECM run of the summer so far from +144 hrs onwards with relatively settled weather for a good portion of the UK.

Could an average July be about to pounce?

July couldn't have been much worse than June really, sunshine totals near average would make it feel like the best July in ages compared to previos years

[Milhouse]

Its a pretty good ECM 12z in the way that it prolongs the dry and settled conditions throughout next week. Temperatures wont be all that great if those charts verified but its July now so we are reaching the peak of possible warmth. Therefore temperatures will be around average which means 18-22c which should feel very pleasant.

[Deluxe]

Best ECM run of the summer so far from +144 hrs onwards with relatively settled weather for a good portion of the UK.

Could an average July be about to pounce?

Oooh could we be that lucky!? One can hope. ECM certainly is more positive this evening, lets hope it stays that way!

[AWD]

Oooh could we be that lucky!? One can hope. ECM certainly is more positive this evening, lets hope it stays that way!

Unfortunetly the ECM looks like its being considered as an Outlier tonight:

Quick point, the ECWMF model is such a huge change from the 00Z run, the 12Z run is most likely an outlier

The ECWMF ensembles signal little risk of such extensive high pressure next week, a more unsettled theme is likely at the moment...

That was the comment made by Matt Hugo