Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[damianslaw]

Models hinting at a more traditional NW-SE split setting in next week, with the SE getting the best temperatures and levels of sunshine importing some warm uppers and thus chance of thundery downpours, further NW more of an atlantic infuence so less in the way of sunshine and feeling cooler with the threat of low cloud and mist/murk. This is often the time of year when we revert back to a NW-SE split, spring and early summer generally sees a less pronounced NW-SE split.

From a personal perspective, the outlook remains a preety grim one for the NW in particular.

[Bobby]

A wet (and windy for the S. Coast) night to come for many

Not a nice night to be camping on at the Isle of Wight festival

[Andy Bown]

Monday and Tuesday look like being sunny and generally dry bar a few isolated showers in the north,

Are you sure about that what with a warm front shown moving North on the Fax Charts?

Whatever time of day/night that occurs it will bring low cloud and the risk of at least some drizzle and, thinking back to a similar occurence

on 25th June last year, it took until early evening for the sun to burn through after a dull and occasionally drizzly day.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Why does the GFS charts only go up to 61?

[Summer Sun]

Why does the GFS charts only go up to 61?

How do u mean ?

[Supacell]

Why does the GFS charts only go up to 61?

Is it because the run is only just coming out? Wait until around half 5 and you should be able to see all of it.

[Summer Sun]

The hot spell for Thursday has been upgraded for some

06z

12z

Looks like there will be plenty of rain around so a very humid day is likely

[Frosty.]

So far, the Gfs 12z op run continues to reinforce the warmer and more humid trend next week but it also shows a lot of showers and some thundery downpours arriving by midweek and as the heat builds by thursday, some very heavy thunderstorms are widespread across the uk, heading north to scotland and low pressure really takes control from midweek onwards so although there will be some respite from the recent deluges during mon/tues, it then looks like more flooding risk for the areas already affected seems likely.

[Bobby]

Something for the storm lovers to drool over

BOOM

Starts to turn unsettled again from Tuesday with rain/showers spreading in from the SW (especially for NW parts)

Then comes our weekly Thursday/Friday unseasonable low

UKMO 12z:

Edited June 23, 2012 by Barb-

[Snowy Easterly]

GFS looks good with thunderstorms and heat but it is so brief it only lasts a day or two

UKMO is shocking and shows our usual washout friday low

[Methuselah]

Aye. We will drool!

But, also, perhaps we should acknowledge that fact that OldMetMan highlighted this very 'possibility' some two-weeks' ago??

We can all read the models, but we can't always interpret the other signals...

[Summer Sun]

After the 1 day of heat on Thursday we see a return of Friday low

He shifts away during the weekend and surprisingly high pressure trys to build

It doesn't last long though as Friday low makes his return

FI ends unsettled

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Edited June 23, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Timmytour]

Another friday low for next week......have the models been programmed with the "every seventh wave" theory?

[Weather-history]

Believe it or not GFS 12z has a ground frost for a few spots Tuesday morning.

[Summer Sun]

Believe it or not GFS 12z has a ground frost for a few spots Tuesday morning.

Good call not somthing John Hammond mentioned on the beeb news channel just before 6 but its possible

Which leads me to ask, whats the latest ever frost recorded in the during summer?

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows the warm spell on Thursday for the south

But it won't last as Friday low makes his way in

And shifts the warm air way

Its going to be one of those blink and you'll miss it spells

July is still shown to start unsettled

Edited June 23, 2012 by Summer Sun

[jimbo36]

I won't post every chart on the website as we can all see Thursday looks like a fun day. Summery and thundery breakdown all in one day. Two areas interest me for single cell storms in the mid afternoon, Dorset and Herts/Beds areas. South East England maybe late afternoon, then a general line-out of weaker storms up the eastern side in the evening. A lot can change in the meantime though for specifics

[Nick F]

12z ECM doesn't look quite so good now for a build of warmth/humidity followed by a thundery breakdown on Thurs. Much more of a westerly component to the surface and mid-level flow than previous runs and the 12z GFS. Still alot can change between now and mid-week.

12z ECM worringly shows torrential rain returning across northern areas again on Thursday:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[Bobby]

There is good support in the GFS ensembles for a thundery breakdown. Variations in where and how intense but it looks good for something thundery. Still a long way out but potential for something explosive indeed.

Look at all the heat the GEM pumps up

+20c 850s into southern Britain.

[Summer Sun]

There is good support in the GFS ensembles for a thundery breakdown. Variations in where and how intense but it looks good for something thundery. Still a long way out but potential for something explosive indeed.

Look at all the heat the GEM pumps up

+20c 850s into southern Britain.

Parts of the south could go bang on Thursday, provided there's no breakdowns of course

[Methuselah]

I do believe, judging from what the models are suggesting, that somewhere in the SE could see temps shoot-up to around 28C, briefly, around midweek?

[Nick F]

Thoughts of any prolonged settled and warm weather still look a little far-fetched looking at the CPC 8-14 day H500 prognotic charts, still those +ve anomalies over Greenland and Nern Canada:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

[Milhouse]

I do believe, judging from what the models are suggesting, that somewhere in the SE could see temps shoot-up to around 28C, briefly, around midweek?

With the 15C 850hpa line grazing the south coast the high 20s are achievable. The south east looks the bast place to see the highest temperatures on Thursday before a possibly thundery breakdown. Still, with the awful amount of rain so far this month perhaps the decent amount of settled weather this week should be the main talking point. The eastern half of the UK should see 4 reasonably dry and increasingly warm days. Shame that low pressure will be knocking around again for the weekend.

[NUT]

Middle of the week onwards looking interesting. Something for everybody it would seem

[Snowy Easterly]

i won't be getting too excited about these thunderstorms for midweek as many times we have had tame breakdowns from the west and all we get is an annoying legacy of cloud from a front, no rain, no thunder, this heat will be a blink and miss it affair like others have said

tbh im sick to death of viewing the models now, every day all i see is that permanent mid atlantic ridge/Greenland high just sitting there

Edited June 23, 2012 by Snowy Easterly