Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[johnholmes]

Regarding my post a few numbers ago about what is fed into the models the link below, from my own research and asking NOAA quite some time ago specific questions does provide most of what I had forgotten-hope it helps others?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/51439-information-about-gfs-and-its-data-set/

[Milhouse]

Unsettled sums up GFS tonight with just a few very short lived settled day's, its looking quite unsettled for the Tennis at wimbledon at this rate the roof will be shut more times then its open

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

With a rather slack pressure pattern much of the time it wouldnt turn out too bad with some decent dry spells and feeling warm too. Plus, a slack pressure pattern plus warmth usually means the chance of heavy thundery showers.

[OldMetMan]

This is turning into a most unusual summer.

There is a fair amount of consistency amongst the models in maintaining the broad cold upper trough over much of the central and eastern Atlantic but what I am most surprised by is the northern extent of the upstream upper warm ridge with thickness values up to 564dm getting very close to S Greenland - don't recall seeing that before.

Thickness over the near continent is fairly steady although there is still a chance of the "Spanish Plume" event I mentioned the other day with the jet being at such a low latitude - in fact we have something of a split flow so some of the hot air over S France and Spain could well get caught up in the developing low to the SW in the next day or two with thundery activity developing over France.

In the longer term, the upper pattern is shown by the models to remain broadly similar with the static wave pattern persisting and the jet still a long way south. However, the UKMet in particular is showing the possibility of slowly rising pressure over the SE and S of the UK - but again much depends on the strength of the jet.

One final factor which may have a bearing on the longer term upper flow is that there are signs of tropical activity beginning both off the eastern US and the Caribbean so, if that takes off, we may find it having the effect of strengthening the jet over the NW Atlantic - could give us a breather from LPs coming in from the SW at us again and again!

[Backtrack]

I fail to see how a sudden change in the MJO is going to mean a sudden change in the 2x or 4x synoptic ouputs from ECMWF and GFS.

I agree with your suggestion that there are no signs of any major upper air pattern change into July but that has been predicted for some time with the MJO being shown to do something other than what it has currently apparently done?

Hi John, I was just merely suggesting that the MJO moving into phase 2 isn't a great indicator, and although alone isn't a major key indicator of the upstream pattern, I think it can give a usually suggestion of what can happen in the longer time frame.

I also think we are now in reliable range for other indicators to begin to perform with credible accuracy, and so far, it's not good I must say.

I'd love to hear from Glacier Point on how this ties in with his summer forecast, I don't think he's likely to be far from the mark, it's just I didn't anticipate a summer month of this low of quality, but let's look on the bright side here, July can't be any worse, can it? :lol:

[damianslaw]

Trying to be upbeat this evening, but have to say the outlook for the rest of the month looks preety poor especially for the northern half of the country, with changeable conditions ruling the roost and dissapointingly cool. Tomorrow could quite possibly end up being the warmest day of the month with many places getting close to or above 70f at least in England and Wales.

Models continue to suggest the trough will remain stuck in situ close to the country meaning further bouts of windy rainy cool conditions interspersed with bright drier warmer days like today and tomorrow. Its a pattern which has dominated most of our last 5 summers.

Tomorrows torch relay event in Bowness on Windermere looks dead dert to be a washout, what a pity it couldn't have arrived a day or two earlier. This evening has been glorious - yes quite cool but sparkling clear skies and superb visibility.

[Milhouse]

Tomorrows torch relay event in Bowness on Windermere looks dead dert to be a washout, what a pity it couldn't have arrived a day or two earlier. This evening has been glorious - yes quite cool but sparkling clear skies and superb visibility.

We had glorious weather yesterday for the Hull section of the relay. It really did bring out the crowds and make for a great atmosphere. Given how June has been so far we were incredibly lucky.

No support for this to occur but its worth posting

Edited June 19, 2012 by Milhouse

[Robbie Garrett]

NAO could go either way in the next week or so, Agreement with CFS for something warm as we head into July, but quickly broken down by the Atlantic. Haven't really looked properly yet, but from the naked eye everything points to another unsettled 'monsoon' period unless there's something in the long wave pattern as OldMetMan has said that might change things here and there.

Something should change, and it might point to a decent July/Fairly good August (When have we last heard of that one) and we have a Northerly based ITCZ at the moment, that might assist things.

[johnholmes]

request for help

As most know I use the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb anomaly ouputs.

I use these two links but neither seems to work. I have e mailed NOAA to ask if they have a problem but I suspect it may be something wrong with my pc-gawd only knows what.

Is everyone else able to open these two links please? If so has anyone any ideas why I cannot-thanks for any help.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

John

[Terminal Moraine]

request for help

As most know I use the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb anomaly ouputs.

I use these two links but neither seems to work. I have e mailed NOAA to ask if they have a problem but I suspect it may be something wrong with my pc-gawd only knows what.

Is everyone else able to open these two links please? If so has anyone any ideas why I cannot-thanks for any help.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

John

Both links work for me John.

[johnholmes]

I suspected they would but have not the faintest idea what my pc problem is-anyone give any ideas.

It must be something to do with my Bullguard security but what and how to stop it affecting what I want to look at?

sorry for cluttering up the model thread.

[linarite]

Some pretty exceptional (for June) rainfall totals being modelled by the GFS00z for North Wales and the Lakes over the weekend

[bluearmy]

something is stirring on naefs early july. a consistent mean jet streak into nw france over the past few days is now picking up intensity as the time ticks down. very unusual to see this at such a long range at this time of year.

[syncmaster]

I suspected they would but have not the faintest idea what my pc problem is-anyone give any ideas.

It must be something to do with my Bullguard security but what and how to stop it affecting what I want to look at?

sorry for cluttering up the model thread.

john just to rule the anti virus out, first turn it off and quickly try to access the site !!

[Bobby]

Some pretty exceptional (for June) rainfall totals being modelled by the GFS00z for North Wales and the Lakes over the weekend

The NAE looks gives even more rain and this is only up to Friday morning

Blimey, the GFS 06z is even worse. 4-6 inches of rain in places up to the weekend. In the places that have already been flooded too.

Edited June 20, 2012 by Barb-

[syed2878]

Hi jhon both link work for me too tryed it on pc and phone.

[picog]

I suspected they would but have not the faintest idea what my pc problem is-anyone give any ideas.

It must be something to do with my Bullguard security but what and how to stop it affecting what I want to look at?

sorry for cluttering up the model thread.

I don't know much about computers, but the cache comes up quite often, so have you tried emptying your cache?

[valiant]

Links work for me AND I use Bullguard.

[Gael_Force]

I'm a bit long in the tooth to be computer literate but was wondering if some of these problems are down to people altering cookie settings. My son has advised me to leave well alone as it may cause me problems in loading pages that I use regularly.

[Summer Sun]

Fairly unsettled from GFS 12z tonight however the south may escape the worst for a time after this next low clears through, with the bulk of the rain moving north, the start of July looks wet just about everywhere plently of heat building in Eastern europe though

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Buzzit]

I suspected they would but have not the faintest idea what my pc problem is-anyone give any ideas.

It must be something to do with my Bullguard security but what and how to stop it affecting what I want to look at?

sorry for cluttering up the model thread.

John I am pretty sure this will have to do with your firewall settings if you are using Bullguard Internet Security, go to Open BullGuard and go to the Firewall section > Overview tab. and see if you can make sense of anything being blocked or have a look in the firewall log files to see if there was blocking activity at the time you tried to access the charts as a guide to what might be wrong. Alternatively - turn the firewall off and see if you can view the page correctly (as a trial to see if this is definitely causing the issue)

Edited June 20, 2012 by Buzzit

[Buzzit]

Hints of the jetstream lifting in the deepest parts of the GFS12zs FI - If only for warm lovers.

Out of FI no change to current pattern of low after low after low after low. How low can you go ?

[k19]

Don't know how to look at previous ensemble charts, but recently have noticed a theme in them. The operational run has been on the lower side of the mean, and in some cases been an outlier, below is an example of this.

EDIT: I'm talking about in FI, not in short range.

Edited June 20, 2012 by kev19

[Greybird]

Hi John,

re.your problem.

Have you tried using a proxy service to access those pages. This will negate any cookie issues that your PC may have.

Try one of these:

http://zoekja.nl/proxy

http://anonymouse.org

http://boratproxy.com

[Milhouse]

Early next week it looks like pressure will attempt to rise from the west. Whether we get a decent settled spell depends on whether we can get the copious amount of high pressure to our north west to link up with the Azores high to the south which also looks well placed. The GFS has been the model that has been leaning towards this outcome the most. We just need high pressure to build strongly enough to block the track of low pressures towards the UK.

[shedhead]

Surely all these responses to JH's computer problems could have been dealt with by PM.

Back to the models, which appear to be backing off of the massive rainfall totals shown on the 06 GFS run for the weekend, but still plenty of the wet stuff around, especially for W England and Wales. Into next week hints of a general improvement as pressure rises, but with winds out of the NW there looks to be little if any warmth, let alone heat available, with some of the best conditions ironically likely in areas expected to suffer most across the next 3 or 4 days.

Edited June 20, 2012 by shedhead