Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[MP-R]

And the famous Bristol flood of 10th-11th July 1968! (sorry off topic)

[OldMetMan]

I remember that, too...Late June or early July, and 33C in London? Was that the year when the Macclesfield game was called-off after several players were struck by lightning?

Yes, you are both right, that was quite some weather in those few days but there was also a LP that travelled from N Spain around 10th and produced massive amounts of rain and thunderstorms across the SE, plus another event around the 15th/16th September that produced 3 days of torrential downpours as an occlusion got stuck over the SE - I remember parts of Surrey were very badly flooded. It was similar to the situation of a few days ago that caused all the flooding in Sussex.

I shall be following the UKMet particularly in the next couple of days - as TWS suggests, the jet may weaken enough to let HP develop. Interesting situation this!

[Cloud 10]

I vaguely recall the storms of July 1st and 2nd 1968. What stands out in my memory about them , was the coloured rain (contamination from Saharan dust?)...the large hail, and that there were so many storms...one after another after another, that and how dark it was during the day. Most of all though...the explosion from an electricity substation a quarter mile from my house having taken a direct hit from a CG bolt.

A nice looking set-up for some storms.

Meanwhile,back to the future,looks like heights building towards our west

for the end of the month.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble NAEFS ( North American Ensemble Forecasting System)

[Methuselah]

Aye, stay on topic. My fault, I got so carried-away with the footy, I forgot what the topic is. It's the models...

[YAZ]

I remember that, too...Late June or early July, and 33C in London? Was that the year when the Macclesfield game was called-off after several players were struck by lightning?

Oh well done moderator..... very topical..... what were you saying about waffle....?

[Cakie]

I think such an event is allowed a bit of off topic. Sounds like an interesting time that sticks in your memory

[Milhouse]

Well i think its almost a certainty that low pressure will be banging on the doors as early as Thursday next week so we can expect the return of increasingly unsettled conditions to finish the week. However the GFS 18z shows how, even with low pressure close by, it doesnt have to mean a nationwide washout. Southern and eastern areas would be fairly warm and mostly dry as the Azores high tries to push up from the south ushering the low away from the UK.

Still all to play for for the last days of June and early July with Greenland blocking looking much less evident. We just need the Azores high to get its act together.

[Slowpoke]

A low pressure system that moves in from the continent (that doesn't happen often, does it?) shown in FI that would bring some warm, humid temperatures with it. Temperatures potentially up to the mid-20s for England, Wales and Scotland, maybe even high 20s locally with widespread 850s of 12-14C and I imagine we'd get lots of really intense thunderstorms! I wouldn't mind that, looks interesting. A hell of a lot better than these Atlantic lows, so boring!

Unfortunately it's in deep FI, anyone else think it'd be fun?

Edited June 16, 2012 by Slowpoke

[Snowy Easterly]

yep wish that would come off but as ever it always stays out in FI

we hardly get intense thunderstorms/ thundery rain, these days, just crappy cool rain, boring as you say slowpoke

[Slowpoke]

Indeed buddy, let's hope for a change soon!

Preferably, the Azores High coming NE and sitting on top of us for a few weeks so that we can steadily build our own heat, or a big high just to east of us dragging up some hot temps, warm winds and thundery air from France and Spain!

Edited June 16, 2012 by Slowpoke

[Summer Sun]

All of the Models this morning show a quick return to unsettled weather as we move towards the end of the week, the low pressure systems don't look as deep as the past few but there will be more rain for the areas that don't need it

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

[bluearmy]

All of the Models this morning show a quick return to unsettled weather as we move towards the end of the week, the low pressure systems don't look as deep as the past few but there will be more rain for the areas that don't need it

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

not sure there are too many areas that don't need the rain gavin, especially after a few days of drier weather. we still have a large groundwater deficiency in the southeastern quarter of the uk. more evidence this morning of the lack of op run consistency beyond day 5.

[shedhead]

Without doubt some very dissapointing/annoying/frustrating (call it what you will) outputs this morning, with next weeks fine weather window not just closing but being slammed shut in our faces. On a +ive note we finally manage to lose heights over Greenland, but the Jet remains a long way south and maintains enough oooooph to fire the Atlantic rubbish at us from an albeit slightly different angle, effectively now writing off June imho.

Edited June 16, 2012 by shedhead

[bluearmy]

Without doubt some very dissapointing/annoying/frustrating (call it what you will) outputs this morning, with next weeks fine weather window not just closing but being slammed shut in our faces. On a +ive note we finally manage to lose heights over Greenland, but the Jet remains a long way south and maintains enough oooooph to fire the Atlantic rubbish at us from an albeit slightly different angle, effectively now writing off June imho.

sure ?

not according to naefs which has been by far the most reliable tool for fi trends this past few weeks

[shedhead]

I was talking about next week, not FI, so perhaps I should have used the word 'temporarily' rather than finally.

[bluearmy]

I was talking about next week, not FI, so perhaps I should have used the word 'temporarily' rather than finally.

sorry shed - had a good look through all the nwp and heights/thicknesses are high over greenland region all week. there are some sniffs this morning but i need to see a lot more before getting too interested in what could be a decent end to june.

[phil nw.]

The upper trough which has been resident around North West Europe for so long now will still be lurking through the next week, according to the 00z outputs.

With a lot of colder air aloft this means showers about for many through the next few days with temperatures still depressed.

I suppose one positive trend is for some rising pressure further south and east with a ridge around midweek which should give at least a couple of fine days and feeling a touch warmer.

Signs that the main core of low heights just easing further north and west by then.

However, although there`s some differences with detail, the models shows further unsettled weather approaching the west towards the end of the week.

Looking further ahead the ECM run looks the more unsettled output by week 2 keeping heights much lower around the UK with 00z GFS promising a much fairer outlook with building pressure over W.Europe and the south of the UK.

So still some uncertainty with the outlook for the rest of June but there`s no strong signal yet for more than brief interludes of fine weather.

Edited June 16, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Bobby]

All the main models show low pressure winning out eventually. GEM especially goes with another nasty low next week

[J10]

GFS showing a bit more high pressure on its 06Hz run, building up from the South West, however probably gone by the next run

http://cdn.nwstatic....144/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....168/h500slp.png

However at the moment the synoptic pattern at the moment is for low pressure to win out, but hopefully for once GFS is right this time.

[shedhead]

GFS showing a bit more high pressure on its 06Hz run, building up from the South West, however probably gone by the next run

http://cdn.nwstatic....144/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....168/h500slp.png

However at the moment the synoptic pattern at the moment is for low pressure to win out, but hopefully for once GFS is right this time.

Yes a much more encouraging 06 GFS showing what could potentially happen if the AzH finally shoots a decent ridge NE'wards, but I think we need a few more similar GFS runs and some kind of back up of this evolution from ECM before getting too carried away.

[Summer Sun]

Much better 06z from GFS this morning with high pressure building

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[johnholmes]

post 393 is the most realistic in my view from Phil

Until the 500mb anomaly charts CONSISTENTLY show what looks like settled weather then the 4x GFS and the 2x ECMWF will be prone to change from day to day/run to run.

To me in the range day 7 out to 15 there is little, if anything, to suggest anything other than unsettled for the most part with just a day here or there with a more settled appearance likely. Nor am I yet convinced of any major upper air pattern change beyond day 15.

[ANYWEATHER]

You could not have two different models putting out such a contrasting synoptic pattern @T168. Lets see if the 06z gfs is a duff run!!!

Edited June 16, 2012 by ANYWEATHER

[johnholmes]

You could not have two different models putting out such a contrasting synoptic pattern @T168. Lets see if the 06z gfs is a duff run!!!

they will continue to do this

to see just how variable GFS output is go to the Weather Onlie site where its a very quick comparison one can do run to run for as many times back as you like and it will show the chart for the first time you set it to.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201206140000%26HH%3D204

Edited June 16, 2012 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

I wonder how the 00 oz GFS run compared the to 00 oz ECM at t168 which is probably the best way of comparing the two models. Am I wrong too see things this way? Deep FI keeps showing next Saturday as being a vast improvement on what we've had. That's the GFS by the way. All could change rapidly if John is right.