Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[ANYWEATHER]

I wonder how the 00 oz GFS run compared the to 00 oz ECM at t168 which is probably the best way of comparing the two models. Am I wrong too see things this way? Deep FI keeps showing next Saturday as being a vast improvement on what we've had. That's the GFS by the way. All could change rapidly if John is right.

Reading the latest metoffice update they dont agree at all with the gfs, looks like there singing from the same hymn sheet as the Ecm....

[Scorcher]

Reading the latest metoffice update they dont agree at all with the gfs, looks like there singing from the same hymn sheet as the Ecm....

Strange as UKMO doesn't look as bad as ECM for the coming week and looks more similar to the GFS by the end of the week with high pressure trying to ridge north.

[johnholmes]

I wonder how the 00 oz GFS run compared the to 00 oz ECM at t168 which is probably the best way of comparing the two models. Am I wrong too see things this way? Deep FI keeps showing next Saturday as being a vast improvement on what we've had. That's the GFS by the way. All could change rapidly if John is right.

no I think comparing like with like as you suggest is fine for inter model checking

[Mapantz]

Tuesday and Wednesday giving most of us a break from the unsettled conditions.

Returning to unsettled conditions by Thursday.

[TonyH]

Weather guide for the coming week (for the MIdlands and west Wales):

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4425-weather-guide-sunday-17th-to-saturday-23rd-june-west-wales-and-central-midlands-specific/

[Methuselah]

The GFS outlook still looks better to me, at least in terms of temperature. And (as OldMetMan suggested yesterday) there's always the chance - however remote - of a thundery low brushing the SE...

[J10]

Re GFS - ECM, which one nailed the low pressure for the past few days. ECM, so given the current unsettled pattern, you would have to back the ECM, as much I would wish the GFS is right.

[Summer Sun]

ENS offers some hope as well in the short term, longer term it shows a return to less settled conditions

[Methuselah]

Re GFS - ECM, which one nailed the low pressure for the past few days. ECM, so given the current unsettled pattern, you would have to back the ECM, as much I would wish the GFS is right.

Aye Jackone, there is that...Then, I guess, one FI is as good (or bad) as any other...

[johnholmes]

The prelim output for 12z is identical at T+144 to the 06Z byt T+192 its chalk and cheese!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Next week looks like it could potentially end up quite active in the convective discussion threads, as there remains potential for some heavy slow-moving downpours associated with the rather slack pressure around the British Isles. Showers should be quite well scattered during Monday to Wednesday with pressure relatively high, and probably a fair amount of sunshine for most, though temperatures will only rise to around average for the time of year. It may well feel considerably different to recent days though, as "average" with light winds still feels a lot warmer than the persistent cool breezy weather of the past fortnight.

Towards the end of the week we are likely to see a complication come in from the west- the GFS hints at a showery thundery type of trough whereas the ECMWF version is deeper and more likely to give organised rain. I would fancy a shot at some electrical activity on my birthday (next Friday) and from this perspective the GFS 12Z breakdown holds a lot of promise. After that the GFS and UKMO hint at a ridge of high pressure drifting north-eastwards over southern areas but the ECMWF 00Z had the jet spilling over the top giving us low after low, so many eyes will be on the ECMWF tonight to see if it tones down the succession of lows.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The GFS outlook still looks better to me, at least in terms of temperature. And (as OldMetMan suggested yesterday) there's always the chance - however remote - of a thundery low brushing the SE...

That feature mentioned by Old Met Man....it is one to watch and could devlop into something more significant. With LP to our WSW it could merge into a poor weather scenario and intensify rainfall....as if we need more. Watch this space for mid week on as that LP to our WSW could become more of a player.

This chart below spells danger for potential heavy rain and more influential LPs

BFTP

Edited June 16, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Zakos]

A ghastly FI on the GFS 12Z, quite a substantial downgrade at 180 hours onwards as the Azores high has far less of an influence on the UK.

The main difference being the strength of the jet stream, It's much weaker and more disorganised on the 06Z.

The jet stream has been quite strong recently. This is normal in early June, the so called "return of the westerlies", but this has been a real washout, the worst start to June ever as some claim:

"

MeteoGroup forecaster Julian Mayes:

We cannot find a period of June weather worse than this month since records began. For a 12-day period, it’s as bad as it can be."

I think the logical scenario would be for an improvement in weather conditions. Something like the 06Z FI - not exactly perfect summer synoptics, but a change to more settled conditions, with a general increase in pressure,temperature, and sunshine duration.

The jet stream has to run out of steam soon, surely? ...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A ghastly FI on the GFS 12Z, quite a substantial downgrade at 180 hours onwards as the Azores high has far less of an influence on the UK.

The main difference being the strength of the jet stream, It's much weaker and more disorganised on the 06Z.

The jet stream has been quite strong recently. This is normal in early June, the so called "return of the westerlies", but this has been a real washout, the worst start to June ever as some claim:

"

MeteoGroup forecaster Julian Mayes:

We cannot find a period of June weather worse than this month since records began. For a 12-day period, it’s as bad as it can be."

I think the logical scenario would be for an improvement in weather conditions. Something like the 06Z FI - not exactly perfect summer synoptics, but a change to more settled conditions, with a general increase in pressure,temperature, and sunshine duration.

The jet stream has to run out of steam soon, surely? ...

Its not about it running out of steam or that its raging...its where its positioned itself....way south of the norm. And an increasing trend thats been observed and anticipated for a few years.

[Zakos]

Its not about it running out of steam or that its raging...its where its positioned itself....way south of the norm. And an increasing trend thats been observed and anticipated for a few years.

Actually, I think you are right, and yes it has definitely been heading south these last few years, It cannot be denied that these last 2 years has seen extremes in weather, most if not all caused by abnormal positions and behaviour of the jet stream.

On both runs the jet stream over the Atlantic is southerly tracking, and relatively strong, but on the 06z its "split"

perhaps this is attributable to the strength of the Azores high in deflecting the jet stream?

[Slowpoke]

The lack of sunshine is truly astounding. And apart from the next three days, I don't see any real improvements... With temperatures only forecast to be like 14-17C, it's not like the sun will make much of a difference anyway.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is looking ok next week, ends with a new area of High pressure moving in

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[Buzzit]

Its not about it running out of steam or that its raging...its where its positioned itself....way south of the norm. And an increasing trend thats been observed and anticipated for a few years.

Very true.. Reality is starting to hit me with the NAO remaining stubbornly negative, and similar for the AO. If this continues then I see wave after wave of low pressure visiting the UK throughout the summer... though maybe some warmer lows with a continuing negative AO

One thing that petrurbs me is that for the month of June 2012, the AO has tracked at a lower value than the GFS ensemble mean at every forecast range, and the NAO has not feared much better.. so I guess not much use placing much reliability in anything the GFS presents in FI at the moment ?

[J10]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

ECM deja vu

Last time it forecast this it got it spot on.

[Summer Sun]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

ECM deja vu

Last time it forecast this it got it spot on.

It soon clears through and pressure rises

Edited June 16, 2012 by Gavin D

[DTHFCJ]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

ECM deja vu

Last time it forecast this it got it spot on.

Yet the MO looks alot different @ 120 even more@144

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends settled

Edited June 16, 2012 by Gavin D

[Milhouse]

Yet the MO looks alot different @ 120 even more@144

It looks rather promising for a ridge of high pressure to come our way with that low pulling back into the Atlantic allowing heights to rise.

I know its not wall to wall high pressure but i cant help thinking that we have turned a corner and a much more traditional summer pattern is about to commence (a much more settled pattern with occasional unsettled spells)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM ends settled

Roof not needed then on centre court, tends to happen most years Wimbledon hottest most settled part of the summer

[Summer Sun]

Roof not needed then on centre court, tends to happen most years Wimbledon hottest most settled part of the summer

Yes I agree I was in Great Yarmouth when Wimbledon was on last year and it was hot for 4 days Wimbledon always seems to draw the best of the summer weather

Edited June 16, 2012 by Gavin D