Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe i.e. start of next week, remaining very unsettled and cool if not very cool for the north. Another unusually deep low pressure system is projected to move across the country on Friday and Saturday meaning another dissapointing weekend ahead.

Next week - signs of the traditional NW-SE divide and return of the westerlies air about things- very normal for the time of year as we see energy in the jet injected northwards and repositioning of the azores high to its normal summer position. Nothing in the models to suggest any significant warm next week, nor any return to sustained dry weather. I suspect we will continue to be plagued by frontal activity off the atlantic but unlike recent weeks, the NW will be hit hardest with fronts becoming very weak as they move eastwards and with more pronounced warm sectors a warm up of sorts will take hold but it will be the humid rather cloudy type of weather. Can't say its a particularly inspiring outlook, but a better syoptical set up for something more conducive to bringing summery weather in time...

A note on this June so far, it has been dire, very cool, very wet and very dull... that last week of May seems a long distant memory. Apart from that 10 day period in late May, ever since the hosepipe ban was introduced it has been very wet for the time of year.. I've said mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out, and very often after a long period of similiar weather it reverts to opposite type with a bang...

[mushymanrob]

i dont get it... as the mjo moves from phase 7, into 8, then into 1, the composites for phases 8 and 1 for june would suggest high pressure domination for the uk. this is not really showing up on the gfs (until deep fi) or ecm which continues with slack, messy synoptics.

is there a 'lag', in what the mjo phase is and what it results in us getting?

[Bobby]

i dont get it... as the mjo moves from phase 7, into 8, then into 1, the composites for phases 8 and 1 for june would suggest high pressure domination for the uk. this is not really showing up on the gfs (until deep fi) or ecm which continues with slack, messy synoptics.

is there a 'lag', in what the mjo phase is and what it results in us getting?

The latest NAEFS anomaly maps don't give much sign of high pressure domination over the UK either, the last run had a fair bit of positive anomalies red over us for a few days at least but that's gone now with pressure falling over us and to our SW again. IE the pattern continues.

+240 is as good as it gets

Then at the end of the run low pressure treturns

[

There's a lot factors and maybe some of them aren't playing ball even if others are.

The models are hinting at maybe another little nasty low following on after this one, the GEM in particular

[johnholmes]

i dont get it... as the mjo moves from phase 7, into 8, then into 1, the composites for phases 8 and 1 for june would suggest high pressure domination for the uk. this is not really showing up on the gfs (until deep fi) or ecm which continues with slack, messy synoptics.

is there a 'lag', in what the mjo phase is and what it results in us getting?

mushy

It is like any other predictor-not always correct

[Frank Trough]

The sky has a strange blue tint to it this morning....can someone explain what that is?

Still a lot of doom and gloom around..not suprising given the weekend we're about to experience.

However, i think it still looks like a slightly improving situation from about Tuesday onwards...doesn't it? At least for the southeast. Not a heatwave, not wall to wall sunshine and still outside t+144 but better? The ECM operational this morning looks much more like the mean from last night's 12z and offers something a bit better.

maybe i'm viewing it all wrong - and obviously there is plenty of scope for it all to go wrong.

[Weather Boy]

The sky has a strange blue tint to it this morning....can someone explain what that is?

Still a lot of doom and gloom around..not suprising given the weekend we're about to experience.

However, i think it still looks like a slightly improving situation from about Tuesday onwards...doesn't it? At least for the southeast. Not a heatwave, not wall to wall sunshine and still outside t+144 but better? The ECM operational this morning looks much more like the mean from last night's 12z and offers something a bit better.

maybe i'm viewing it all wrong - and obviously there is plenty of scope for it all to go wrong.

I think you're right, but in a sense you are bound to be, as it's hard to see the weather not improving at least slightly, given that it could hardly get any worse.

Not long ago, the models seemed remarkably aligned in FI in confidence of an HP build. I think that that now seems to have been watered down to more transient HP's i.e. lasting a day or two before the more dominant lows return. Further, the current thinking seems to be a more traditional run of lows to the north i.e. a nearer to normal jet-stream, rather than one over the channel.

The conclusion to this seems to me that it is likely that next week will see more usual (but still not superb) summer weather which would see many parts, and in particular the SE see some fine or at least reasonable weather from time to time, but still the odd front and still no stunning temperatures.

[Glacier Point]

i dont get it... as the mjo moves from phase 7, into 8, then into 1, the composites for phases 8 and 1 for june would suggest high pressure domination for the uk. this is not really showing up on the gfs (until deep fi) or ecm which continues with slack, messy synoptics.

is there a 'lag', in what the mjo phase is and what it results in us getting?

Can answer that in two ways Rob.

1) All modelling now lifts out the mean anomalous trough that's dogged us this month. What is the cause of this ?

2) Depends on what model you use. Take for example ECM mean (the model of choice for CPC of late). This depicts a roughly consistent anomaly pattern to that observed for the MJO in phases 7-8-1 for days 6-10, and consolidates this for day 10.

The modelling continues to evolve towards a much more benign state for the remainder of the month, which is not unexpected at all.

[pyrotech]

Looking at all the models for the next few days i would have expected an early warning from Meto for Wales. Not exceptionally high totals but enough considering the high water table there. Is there something in the models that account for them not issuing an early (yellow) advisory. Even the surface pressure charts show signs of something in region of 30 - 40mm in those areas that least need it. Localised at that amount but thats all it takes. Thoughts?

Regarding the high that has been in Fi on GFS this also had backing of ECM briefly. Im not sure if the models have next week sorted until the exact track and timing of this low is sorted. I think we may see it reappear but it would be brief even if it does. But a run of 5 dry days would be a relief for some. I still expect a weak ridge middle of next week till the weekend (Sunday) as shown by models few days ago, but will be the 18z tomorrow that will be earliest run that will sort this out in my opinion.

[bluearmy]

ecm ens suite in week 2 has dropped its mean maxes for london to high teens as opposed to low twenties. this is now a theme of several runs. naefs for its last 4 runs has introduced an impressive high anomoly southern greenland for week two. the weak low anomolys have, consequently found their way back to our proximity.

these are not 'flip flop' outlooks. they are showing consistency. it will become, on average, less unsettled, maybe more changeable. however, anyone hoping for sustained summer may be best advised not to 'hold their breath'. looks like a nw/se split with nowhere immune from frontal incursions. better in the se where pressure likely to be highest. temps average.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Having been away for two days and looked at this morning's model outputs "fresh", it looks like next week will see the jet slow down a fair bit, so we probably won't see many frontal disturbances on the northern flank of the ridge from the Azores High, although it does look like the precursor to the "return of the westerlies" which, I predict, will probably arrive around the 22nd-24th June (this is also supported by the ECMWF ensembles).

The next couple of days will have sunshine and showers after that dark rainy interlude over central and southern areas, although once again N and E Scotland and coastal NE England will miss the showers, while seeing a cool breeze off the North Sea- but unlike on recent days those areas will probably be the sunniest as well as driest with less stratocumulus evident over the North Sea. The wind and rain will then spread into the SW late on tomorrow and then across the rest of the country on Friday. I think with it being a deep frontal depression there will probably be a good deal of "residual" cloud around over the weekend, just like there was last weekend.

It may be normal for June to be changeable/unsettled- but the combined extent of high rainfall and lack of sunshine during the first half of the month is certainly proving somewhat unusual. Philip Eden has England and Wales for 1-12 June at 281% of normal rainfall and 42% of normal sunshine. This pattern doesn't look like being broken until next week, although today and tomorrow might help bolster those sunshine totals a touch.

Next week will have a rather tentative ridge of high pressure branching off from the main Azores anticyclone, though still with some uncertainty as to where it ends up. The most likely outcome is a mix of sunny intervals and well-scattered showers, most of the showers towards the NW, driest in eastern areas, with temperatures rising close to the seasonal norm, but nothing particularly warm. As a result sunshine and rainfall stats will probably converge closer to the long-term normal, though I still confidently expect 1-20 June overall to come out wet and cloudy. Then into next weekend the Atlantic is likely to come crashing into north-western areas setting up a more traditional NW-SE split.

[Bobby]

Looking at all the models for the next few days i would have expected an early warning from Meto for Wales. Not exceptionally high totals but enough considering the high water table there. Is there something in the models that account for them not issuing an early (yellow) advisory. Even the surface pressure charts show signs of something in region of 30 - 40mm in those areas that least need it. Localised at that amount but thats all it takes. Thoughts?

The Met Office now have weather warnings for flooding for Wales/SW England Friday/Saturday in addition to today.

A deep depression currently developing over the eastern Atlantic will move slowly northeastwards across the UK on Friday and Saturday, bringing another dose of very unsettled weather to many regions. The associated frontal zone will spread northwards across the southern half of the UK later on Thursday, bringing with it persistent rain. This rain then stalls over parts of the northern half of the UK on Friday and Saturday, leaving showery conditions in its wake over the southern half of the UK, some of these showers heavy and persistent.

Meanwhile, very windy conditions, with gales and gusts up to 60 MPH in exposed areas, are expected to accompany this unsettled weather over southwestern UK during Friday. Showers and rain are expected to widely produce 15-30mm of rain across a large part England and Wales between late Thursday and late Saturday. Locally parts of southern and western Wales and the high ground in southwest England can expect 60-80mm of rain during this 48 hour period.

~984mb, not bad for June.

Edited June 13, 2012 by Barb-

[mushymanrob]

Can answer that in two ways Rob.

1) All modelling now lifts out the mean anomalous trough that's dogged us this month. What is the cause of this ?

2) Depends on what model you use. Take for example ECM mean (the model of choice for CPC of late). This depicts a roughly consistent anomaly pattern to that observed for the MJO in phases 7-8-1 for days 6-10, and consolidates this for day 10.

The modelling continues to evolve towards a much more benign state for the remainder of the month, which is not unexpected at all.

ok thanks, i think ive got that

[pyrotech]

The Met Office now have weather warnings for flooding for Wales/SW England Friday/Saturday in addition to today.

~984mb, not bad for June.

Yes an hour after i posted that they put advisories up

That low is deep, last few runs by NAE has slightly deepened it, GFS has it as above and only Meto have it less deep by about 6mb, Maybe the winds will be a bigger issue. Makes model watching fun. I have the buoys out at sea on floodwarn website if anyone wants to monitor the depth against forecast models as it approaches. As i am in work i am hoping someone posts results as i can check netweather but not my own site in work. Is someone going to set up a thread for this low, so the model discussion is not interupted. Its signifigant due to possible winds and likely flooding in West.

[Buzzit]

^{yes I am cherry picking, but with all the pessimism on this thread of late, my take is that once this weekends low clears the UK that we will be entering a pattern change that will see us thorugh July. As far as Im concerned the} GFS ^{has been modelling pattern change in FI for quite a few days now, though as usual the general change was modelled for around the 15th but has blown out by a week. Much like the fine period of weather we had in March which} GFS ^{showed in FI for some time prior... My take is that this is the weather that will soon enough come to pass}

Edited June 13, 2012 by Buzzit

[Summer Sun]

High pressure builds from late next week and lasts through FI tonight

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Snowy Easterly]

Warm uppers only take control in deep FI though Gavin, same old story high pressure keeps getting pushed back

[Summer Sun]

Warm uppers only take control in deep FI though Gavin, same old story high pressure keeps getting pushed back

Doesn't matter about warm uppers the sun is strong now so even on cool days its still warm in the sun

[andy100]

Yawn

[Frank Trough]

Warm uppers only take control in deep FI though Gavin, same old story high pressure keeps getting pushed back

i'm not sure it's been put back. Next week has never been shown to be "hot". Pressure builds from the south inside t+144 on the GFS (similar on the UKMO-although this looks somewhat different at 144 with a flow off the near continent) -not wall to wall sunshine, not hot, but clearly different to what we have experienced.

steady as she goes. I'd settle for a more average second half of june, that's for sure. Anything better would be a bonus.

[Snowy Easterly]

Doesn't matter about warm uppers the sun is strong now so even on cool days its still warm in the sun

yes of course it will be fine if the sun was out all day and there was no wind, but it will most probably be partly cloudy so it will be feel average, still its better than it has been so far this month,

plus high pressure doesn't always mean sunny weather like you think it does, under cool uppers cloud could easily spoil things, anyway its all still FI so im not holding my breath and at the start of FI it looks like the high wants to go to greenland again and we know what the form synoptic is in recent summers

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-192.png?12

Edited June 13, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Slowpoke]

Even under uppers of 2-5C - if the sun is out - temperatures should easily get to the high teens widely and locally into the low twenties.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO now following on from last night by building high pressure early next week

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

Its a start anythings better than all this low pressure

[samadamsuk]

Hi all.

From the optimists pointed view it does look like a gradual warming out of the trough, and the jet migrating northwards. The question IMO will be as ever, does the flood of polar air keep going as the time frame nears, keeping this promises out at long range.

Cheers, Sam

[Methuselah]

I think that we can all start thinking in terms of an improvement from, maybe, the middle of next week onwards; and I think that it's also fair to say that all of the 'big three' computer models are all hinting along similar lines...That said, it really wouldn't take much, would it? But - with longer intervals between rain-events, average temperatures and reasonable amounts of sunshine, all being on offer, it will still be better than what we're all currently experiencing?

I don't think that anyone has been suggesting wall-to-wall sunshine...

[Slowpoke]

The jet moving north and high pressure building from the south is being shown on quite a few models now.

If the models look similar on tomorrows 12z I'd say the weather improvement is pretty much nailed. It's just a question of getting tomorrow and Saturday's nasty low out of the way as it seems to be the main reason the models have been really inconsistent these past few days. They were struggling to forecast what the low was going to do after it was done with the UK.

Edited June 13, 2012 by Slowpoke