Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Cloud 10]

MJO has also picked up and is likely to revert to phases 7/8 within the next 10-15 days which will further strengthen a +ve signal near to the UK, most likely to the east of us.

MJO forecast (GFS version) heading for phase 1 towards the latter part of June.

Phase 1 composite for June.

NOAA mention some uncertainty again about the MJO in their discussions regarding their 8-14 day chart

which looks all to familiar.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE

FROM 1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET

BY THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE MJO NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

Edited June 7, 2012 by Cloud 10

[bluearmy]

still wonder if the inconsistency run to run of the ops is down to the forecast fast movement of the MJO ?? one would have thought that now we are down to day 7 for next weeks ridge, there might be some x model idea of how it will behave.

[shuggee]

Hey guys can I ask a question please.

When I view the 850hpa temp & SLP chart I would like to know why the High pressure 1024 is in the Atlantic when the thickness line is 10-15 but when it comes over the high pressure start to decreases when the thickness line is near to 20. When I see towards the Mediterranean the surface pressure is lower at 15-20 on the thickness line which it shows its still high pressure if it is or not but can you explain me how it does this and a site which explains it and when the high pressure move out the way the red indicating tend to move towards the north of the country.

Hi Global - welcome to posting on nw.

The colours and numbered black dotted lines on an 850hpa temp & SLP chart do not relate to pressure - they relate to the temperature at that height, which is approx 1.5km in the atmosphere above surface. Hope that helps.

[Lewis]

After reading through what felt like an eternity of spot the high pressure I decided to take a look at the models long term, as most of you already know I don't like long term forecasting unless your GP it's very hard to make predictions and be good at them!

So after looking at the models, the "GFS and the ECMWF" the GFS shows a constant pattern of low pressure over the U.K or close by no doubt having an affect on our weather, by no means is high pressure in charge or looking like it's going to come in charge any time soon.

There's light at the end of the tunnel no doubt but you have to go to the last few frames of the GFS to see pressure building from the near continent.

GFS

ECMWF

I feel as though we are just in one of them patterns that we need to ride out, after a lovely mid-may I kind of expected June to be a write off, a very unseasonable feel to the weather for another 2-3 weeks I feel, once we get out of this pattern here's hoping to some lovely temperatures, a beer garden and a pint of bulmers crisp premium blend. Feels a long way off after been out and about today but it'll come

We all have our favorite weather preference but I like most like any weather, but at the end of the day the weather will do what the weather wants to do.

The past 10 days or so has reminded me of winter on the model threads, a reversal from the pattern of wanting to see heights to the north but only this time to the South in the form of high pressure.

The below chart taken from the GFS at +T81 clearly shows how messy things are out there, and slight changes will make such a difference.

Plenty of rain, average temperatures to come for a time, it will feel pleasant at times for some areas, and we will see some convection knocking about, far from boring weather, just not nice to have it this time of the year I suppose.

At least were getting some much needed rain.

Anyhow, if High Pressure is not showing on them model charts soon i'll open up Photoshop and make some for you guys, I might go one step further and make a my own Phantom high pressure model.

Good night Netweather

Lewis

Edited June 8, 2012 by Storm Force Lewis

[Slowpoke]

but you have to go to the last few frames of the GFS to see pressure building from the near continent.

This chart shows high pressure building from the NW this time next week. This is mid-June and it would feel lovely in the sunshine in this set-up. Light winds, high teens and maybe even the low twenties for parts of the West Midlands and perhaps NW England (me included ). It would feel lovely after the first two weeks of June that we've had to endure.

As you say, the real eye candy is reserved for the final few frames:

HOT HOT HOT!

The above chart is fantastic for storm lovers too! Just a shame it's so deep in FI.

A trend to more settled, warmer conditions as we head further into June is looking much more likely though now/

I just hope it materializes.

Edited June 8, 2012 by Slowpoke

[phil nw.]

Hey guys can I ask a question please.

When I view the 850hpa temp & SLP chart I would like to know why the High pressure 1024 is in the Atlantic when the thickness line is 10-15 but when it comes over the high pressure start to decreases when the thickness line is near to 20. When I see towards the Mediterranean the surface pressure is lower at 15-20 on the thickness line which it shows its still high pressure if it is or not but can you explain me how it does this and a site which explains it and when the high pressure move out the way the red indicating tend to move towards the north of the country.

Hi Global - welcome to posting on nw.

The colours and numbered black dotted lines on an 850hpa temp & SLP chart do not relate to pressure - they relate to the temperature at that height, which is approx 1.5km in the atmosphere above surface. Hope that helps.

Hi Global,

In addition to Shuggee`s reply i thought i would add this link which is our Learners area

http://forum.netweat...-learners-area/

have a look through-there`s lots of information on reading the charts and what the various terminology means.

You can post specific questions in there on the various subjects as well.

I hope you find them of help in understanding the charts.

Anyway welcome from me too and i hope you enjoy your stay on Net-Weather.

[AWD]

A quick look a this mornings model runs whilst I am house bound due to some wild antics going on outside and realistically it does look rather unsettled for thee foreseeable from the overnight runs.

The GFS has us in a showery flow next week with plenty of showers around much of the UK, but with some periods of sunshine inbetween them too. However, temps wont be nothing to write home about, average generally speaking looks to sum them up.

A bit of De'ja Vu next weekend with another rather deep depression approaching Ireland in a weeks time.

However, this one just stalls over Ireland and slowly fills, so if this run verified, the winds wouldnt be as bad as what the South as now. There would still be some heavy rain about though.

Remaining unsettled over next weekend and the start of the following week before, in FI, things settle down and warm up with High Pressure coming up from the South.

FI has regularly brought a more settled and High Pressure dominated spell, just need it to get into the reliable in the next few days though.

The ECM is a unsettled run throughout with showers next week and longer spells of rain as we get closer to next weekend. That about sums that model up this morning!!

The UKMO has pressure slightly higher this coming week, so perhaps less in the way of showers around and more in the way of sunshine?? Still temps remaining around average though!

The GEm is similiar to the ECM and GFS with respect that it is a rather unsettled run genereally speaking, with a showery week this coming week.

Giving way to more general rain next weekend, especially in the South, as the Depression ( again not as deep as the GFS has it ) comes in and stalls over Ireland.

FI on the GEM at it remains unsettled, although warmer, and perhaps Thundery if this chart verified.

All in all, Unsettled for the foreseeable future still, although the coming week wont be nothing as bad as what the South has today. There will be sunshine between the showers next week, which should feel pleasent enough in any sunspots! Next weekend not looking to good though with a depression sitting over Ireland slowly filling! FI, and only the GFS offers something more settled and warmer, and this is in deep FI. Patience is needed, as I feel it is going to be a slow process getting a change from what we have now!

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z hints at high pressure building from next Sunday this morning, FI looks nice just have to hope its on to somthing

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Bobby]

Not much in the way of settled weather over the next week with a cool showery regime possibly with a few longer spells of rain setting in.

Then a repeat of this system possibly on the cards a week after

NAEFS anomoly charts don't look very good at day 10 with low pressure to the SW.

[Gavin P]

Here's todays model based video: Very Wet And Possibly Thundery Late Next Week? http://gavsweathervids.com/

Overall I still think we're still looking for a ridge to develop for the later stage of June, but certainly a big complication possible later next week and assuming this new depression comes off as modelled today we're now staring down the barrel of an exceptionally wet June.

Edited June 8, 2012 by Gavin P

[Thundery wintry showers]

The long-range outputs suggest high pressure establishing in the mid-Atlantic and a weaker ridge setting up over central Europe in about a week's time, but indeed, this may allow a rather vicious low to fill the gap in between. The GFS 00Z had a low just off western Britain giving active rain belts for all, whereas the 06Z, and also this morning's ECM, have the low sat to the SW giving a wet spell for most of England and Wales, while allowing drier conditions over Scotland (probably sunny in the west but with stratus near the east coast), similar to the pattern that characterised the Junes of 1982 and 2007.

Longer-term outputs do show high pressure tentatively ridging over from the Azores but as long as the main anticyclone centre stays stubbornly to the W/SW there is no guarantee that it will ridge into the right sort of areas to promote warmth and/or sunshine. The GFS 06Z manages it, with a ridge covering the British Isles at times, but the ECM solution has the ridge stuck off the north of Scotland which would indicate cooler cloudier conditions with some slow moving rain belts likely towards the south.

[phil nw.]

Here's todays model based video: Very West And Possibly Thundery Late Next Week? http://gavsweathervids.com/

Overall I still think we're still looking for a ridge to develop for the later stage of June, but certainly a big complication possible later next week and assuming this new depression comes off as modelled today we're now staring down the barrel of an exceptionally wet June.

Yes that low for the end of the week will prolong this unsettled spell a bit Gavin.

Unfortunate from that pov really as previously modelled the main body of the upper trough recedes northwards next week but we are left with that small cut off area of low heights just on our doorstep.

Hopefully that will be it when it warms out and a more settled FI does come to reality.

Edited June 8, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Gavin P]

Thanks Phil.

If we're lucky the low will cut off over Biscay or Portugal, but given how this June is going it'll pan out exctly as the models are showing this morning.

Edited June 8, 2012 by Gavin P

[phil nw.]

On a general point about the medium term there`s still some low confidence expressed on the NOAA site wrt to the outlook beyond day 5.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1

TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EASTERN

CONUS.

Link here

http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus06.html

shows the full discussions.

The hope, for those of us looking for better weather, is that the low pressure modelled towards next week end ends up further south or west than currently indicated-or less active at least.

Edited June 8, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[William of Walworth]

I'm failing to understand the pretty huge contrast between this latest output (today's, Friday's) with some of the somewhat more benign operational runs (as mean as applying to later next week onwards) being thrown up in some of yesterday's modela. Please help.

Might it all change again? I'd really like a more summer-like feel in Wales/the SW for next weekend and for the following week especially, but I'm all over the place at attempting predictions now ...

Back on Monday, hope it's all turned around again by then, or at least a BIT moe benign </hopecasting! >

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z continues to hint at high pressure trying to build around next weekend again tonight

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

Will be interesting to see what ECM offers later on

[Scorcher]

Interesting to see GFS moving that deep low further west and then south on this latest run, it will certainly be interesting to see if ECM follows suit.

[Methuselah]

FI doesn't look too bad. That said, it isn't called FI for nothing...

[tinybill]

FI doesn't look too bad. That said, it isn't called FI for nothing...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

i look at this one i cant see any wall wall sun deep into fantasy world at the moment!!!

[Methuselah]

I honestly don't know, ledders. But I think someone posted something about a possible slight La Nina. I'm sure one of the experts'll be along soon.

[Methuselah]

It is in fact El Niño Solar Sausage and Gavin P and myself were tweeting about it. To be precise it will be a weak to moderate event.

Thanks for the clarification, ledders!

[damianslaw]

Its an unsettled outlook from all models. A cool showery northerly airflow in the coming days and then the potential for a similiar set up to now with low pressure moving in from the SW - a more sluggish system though compared to the one sat over the country now. Some longer term outputs suggest the trough will eventually lift or simply be squeezed out by heights to the west and east, but how these interact will be key to whether a more pronounced settled spell arrives or not.

The current synoptical set up is a dire one for being conducive to anything other than the odd brief dry sunny 24 hour window - its a set up which has dominated much of the last 5 summers. BBC presenter today said unsettled for next fortnight - doesn't inspire much hope..

[Bobby]

Unsetttled outlook for the next week or so at least. Showery at first, some of the showers slow moving heavy and prolonged especially in the South, before another washout at the end of the working week as another nasty low moves up from the SW. Agreement seems to be firming up on that low now.

ECM 12z +168

GFS mean 12z +168

UKMO and GEM look to be going the same way too.

[ANYWEATHER]

Its an unsettled outlook from all models. A cool showery northerly airflow in the coming days and then the potential for a similiar set up to now with low pressure moving in from the SW - a more sluggish system though compared to the one sat over the country now. Some longer term outputs suggest the trough will eventually lift or simply be squeezed out by heights to the west and east, but how these interact will be key to whether a more pronounced settled spell arrives or not.

The current synoptical set up is a dire one for being conducive to anything other than the odd brief dry sunny 24 hour window - its a set up which has dominated much of the last 5 summers. BBC presenter today said unsettled for next fortnight - doesn't inspire much hope..

Could not agree more and anyone after settled weather better take the plane!! Little crumbs of comfort even at t+168 with low pressure dominating.....

[J10]

Still disagreement though for next weekend if you look at GFS it keeps the low pressure to the south and west of the UK, before pushing it away to the south and west, while the ECM pushes it through the UK to the east.

But then the models disagree more than people on his thread.