Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[Summer Sun]

More hints of high pressure building later next week from ECM tonight with milder air coming our way too, but before then its more of the same with Thursday and Friday looking wet and windy

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

[shedhead]

Yes a distinct improvment in propects for some fine, dry and warm weather towards the latter stages of the 12 ECM, but typically GFS is having none of it, at least for now. Time of course will tell if ECM is off on one of it's wobbles, but my money is on GFS slowly falling into line with this idea of rising pressure as we move towards mid month.

[tinybill]

evening all like to say our summer coming back off holiday!!! but looking deep into fantasy world one word!!! DIRE!!! [06- 384 hr]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=108&mode=2

[The Northern Ramper]

The Ensemble spread on the 12z GFS would suggest several go with the ECM around 10 days time and the Op run was near the bottom end of the spread at this point and indeed for the next six days.

[bluearmy]

many gefs members go with the ecm 12z op solution but not with the initial depression. its interesting as a few days ago, the solution thrown out by ecm today was widely touted by gfs. over recent days, it has flattened that atlantic ridge and taken the trough back across us. the current gfs suite favourite is to raise heights behind that trough post T300. my mind is taken back to may when an ecm 12z op run suddenly threw a strong scandi high in its fi in the 8/10 day timescale. this had been in gfs deep fi's but the model had since dropped the idea. it was wrong to do so and within a couple of days our late may hot spell was being shown across all the output. the difference here is that naefs isnt showing this solution at that timescale. in may, it was keen on this high scandi anomoly by day 10. as i said earlier, too many variations on how we get to high heights and thickness' to have any real confidence.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Bluearmy is spot on when he says there is little confidence- those hanging on to output at 216-240+ hrs may want to rein it in slightly. In winter when the same optimism is shown in FI it is just that......fantasy island. This is no different and the same rules apply.

[Cloud 10]

Not much joy from the ensemble mean wrt the possible euro ridge.

NOAA having none of it either.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

The search goes on for a chink in the armour of the limpet trough!

[bluearmy]

Not much joy from the ensemble mean wrt the possible euro ridge.

NOAA having none of it either.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

The search goes on for a chink in the armour of the limpet trough!

just to balance out the 'half glass empty posts', in may, noaa's 8/14 dayer took a fair while to 'smell the coffee' re the period post 23/05, despite naefs consistently showing a high scandi anomoly. too much attention paid to the ecm ens which were less enthusiastic. what we currently have is the various ensemble means raising the heights and thicknesses post mid month without there being any obvious ridges. the spreads on ecm at day 10 'weakly' support a trough into the uk from the main atlantic though centred a fair way west. it could get better from there.

EDIT: the last few days' pattern of good naefs followed by less good naefs fi is broken by todays updates which are both promising wrt the period approaching the 20th june. currently we see a propensity on the 850 spreads to take a plume northeast, passing just to our southeast weekend after next (the last time we saw that in the output related to the period 6th to 8th june and it was a pretty good call.). in general, heights, slp and thicknesses all rise in fi. however, apart from a general rising from the south no clear idea of where any sypnotic features are likely to be placed. thats should scream 'caution' for the time being though it is definitely a more optimistic outlook emerging than pessimistic. fingers and everything else crossed if you want things to settle down.

Edited June 5, 2012 by bluearmy

[Snowmadsam]

Ok some of you have had your posts removed,Stuff that`s of no use here and just amounting to petty point scoring.

This clutters up the thread and spoils it for other members and visitors who want to learn about the latest outputs.

.

If you disagree with someone then simply post your views linking some data to show your reason-simples.

If you can`t do this and want an argument then go to a chatroom or send each other hate mail.

Phil don't send them to me!! . Come on folks you are better than this, it is a shame to come on here and read such sad comments. For the people who have had their comments removed, I personally hope you have learnt from a mistake, it is easy to do in some circumstances but please try to be sensible!

Sam

[MP-R]

GFS 18Z looks better for next week now. The upcoming days remain very unsettled and unseasonably windy on Thursday and Friday with a respite for the south at least on Saturday before another wet day on the cards for Sunday. Then after a cool start on Monday next week, the next low out in the Atlantic takes a bit longer to approach with most of the UK sat in, not so much a col but more a 'lull', eventually drawing up a 2-day southeasterly. So, scope for a better few days mid-next week on this run with FI continuing to hint at an anticyclonic end to the run. Let this theme continue on future runs!

[johnholmes]

Not much joy from the ensemble mean wrt the possible euro ridge.

NOAA having none of it either.

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

The search goes on for a chink in the armour of the limpet trough!

not absolutely true in what it is showing when you keep an eye on it every day!

It has shown a VERY slight shift SW of the main upper trough/cut off low, and a somewhat less slight arrival of +ve signs over Scandinavia. This is why my post earlier today did ask the question-is it starting to show along with GFS 10 day anomaly charts something changing?

As ba suggests its too early to say but there are slight signs showing if one adopts the 'half full galss' approach to optimism!

I have not seen the ECM-GFS output for this morning, yesterday ECMWF was less optimistic than the GFS chart-we shall see over the next 2-3 days if the trend continues.

no change really with the output this morning

I made these short hand notes

Wed 6 june

Wed 6 june

Ec-gfs

Ec has much less marked trough and keeps its slackish wly flow into uk but shows no signs of any +ve areas to east of uk

Gfs more pronounced trough around 20w=flow into uk=s of west with continued +ve signs Europe and Scandinavia.

Too much difference between to have any real idea of actual upper pattern in 10 days today but gfs again supports idea of noaa re +ve height rises to east with both keeping marked trough/-ve area sw of uk

Edited June 6, 2012 by johnholmes

[Alex]

Some signs on the GFS 06z that a drier spell is likely midmonth onwards ESP in southern areas. The ensembles show a drying up and also a warming trend with more members above average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

MJO has also picked up and is likely to revert to phases 7/8 within the next 10-15 days which will further strengthen a +ve signal near to the UK, most likely to the east of us.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

[Summer Sun]

UKMO remains unsettled into next week but no deep lows thanfully so we could get a sunshine and showers spell

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

Ensembles look fairly mixed tonight

Edited June 6, 2012 by Gavin D

[Cloud 10]

not absolutely true in what it is showing when you keep an eye on it every day!

It has shown a VERY slight shift SW of the main upper trough/cut off low, and a somewhat less slight arrival of +ve signs over Scandinavia. This is why my post earlier today did ask the question-is it starting to show along with GFS 10 day anomaly charts something changing?

As ba suggests its too early to say but there are slight signs showing if one adopts the 'half full galss' approach to optimism!

I have not seen the ECM-GFS output for this morning, yesterday ECMWF was less optimistic than the GFS chart-we shall see over the next 2-3 days if the trend continues.

no change really with the output this morning

I made these short hand notes

Wed 6 june

Wed 6 june

Ec-gfs

Ec has much less marked trough and keeps its slackish wly flow into uk but shows no signs of any +ve areas to east of uk

Gfs more pronounced trough around 20w=flow into uk=s of west with continued +ve signs Europe and Scandinavia.

Too much difference between to have any real idea of actual upper pattern in 10 days today but gfs again supports idea of noaa re +ve height rises to east with both keeping marked trough/-ve area sw of uk

Well hopefully these small signs of improvement will grow larger over the coming days.

For the moment i am adopting the "rain gauge half full" mentality.

Something like this from this evening's 12z ecm would be a step in the right direction,although

well into FI

Edited June 6, 2012 by Cloud 10

[bluearmy]

Some signs on the GFS 06z that a drier spell is likely midmonth onwards ESP in southern areas. The ensembles show a drying up and also a warming trend with more members above average.

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

MJO has also picked up and is likely to revert to phases 7/8 within the next 10-15 days which will further strengthen a +ve signal near to the UK, most likely to the east of us.

http://www.cpc.ncep....k/MJO/mjo.shtml

courtesy of today's noaa cpc discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES KEYED TO FORECAST MJO PHASE SUGGEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OPPOSITE TO THAT

FAVORED BY THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK TWO PERIOD ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO TODAY'S WEEK TWO OUTLOOK.

i suggest a the lack of op model continuity may well have something to do with this. until the MJO for the period beyond day 7 is sorted, we could well be 'tossing a coin' regarding whats likely to verfiy. fwiw, the ecm 12z op run looks about as likely as anything thats been chucked out recently.

[phil nw.]

Very unseasonal weather coming in from the south west overnight with the approach of another low which will move across the UK over the next 2 or 3 days.

Windy in the south and bands of rain with showers following on behind moving up the country.

A gradual improvement into next week looks likely with less active weather systems around although still with showers about amongst the sunny intervals= that upper trough at last showing signs of shallowing out.

Temperatures still rather depressed though. with the flow still from a cool direction.

Looking further ahead there`s still no firm signal for High pressure around the UK or indeed North West Europe out to day10 so we can`t expect a quick turnaround towards Summery conditions yet.

I too have been following the 500hPa mean outputs and forecasts over the last few days and changes to this setup look slow to come

A look at the ENs Mean outputs at Day 10 does show some hope of improvement.

a gradual warming out of this persistent trough as it retreats northwards.

Edited June 7, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Bobby]

The next few days are going to feel more like October than June.

Heavy rain for many especially in Wales as usual with 2-3 inches in places. Even worse in Ireland.

Gusts up to 60mph in places.

Edited June 6, 2012 by Barb-

[A Winter's Tale]

Today was another day with low pressure systems bringing rain then clearing to the NE allowing some clearer and drier spells, although some areas of cloud, showers and even storms have been present across the UK. The last time I looked, it looked like this pattern is set to continue for at least the next 6-10 days with some days being very wet across the UK and some days being more of a restbite. I'm keen to look at what sort of weather conditions the UK is likely experience judging by the latest runs from the models and I hope to look at the wider synoptic picture and whether a change is on course. Any change in synoptics in the latter part of the runs is likely to alter, change and vary as we get nearer the time but a general consensus of the synoptics would be would be important.

Tonight.

At midnight, we should see rain affecting the NErn and SWrn areas of the UK. Dry throughout Ireland, W and S Scotland and much of Wales and England. The odd shower can't be ruled out. Some clear spells are also likely in eastern and central parts of England aswell as western coasts of Scotland. Some lingering, patchy rain in the NE of Scotland and another low pressure system in the SW bringing rain to SW England and Wales. It's interesting to see the isobars be closely packed so some strong SWly winds could be possible for some. Remember, in low pressure systems, the wind moves in an anti-clockwise direction so wind directions would vary across the country as would different areas of rain moving in various directions.

It should be quite mild for most, coolest in the north with temperatures in single digits around Inverness and Moray, mild in the teens further south.

This chart illustrates the rain in the SW and NE and some areas that could see a shower.

You can see that high pressure upto 1024mb over Greenland, ridging a bit further south two. It acts like a rock in a stream so the water (low pressure) gets pushed further south. Once the water gets beyond the rocks, it can move into the free space availabe (low pressure moving NE).

ECMWF, we see that the UK is bearing the brunt of the low pressure that's fresh from gaining energy from the Atlantic.

You can see how warm the Atlantic is here. You can see a big difference between the the temperatures in the UK and Spain.

Tomorrow - midday.

Quite an area of low pressure, quite intense around the Irish Sea and Western and Central Areas. Strong winds for the south and west, particulary for this time of year.

Temperatures quite disapointing with 8C in S Ireland to 16C in London.

Combined with strong winds, some heavy and prolonged precipitation is likely for Wales, much of Ireland aswell as affecting south and west. Drier the further north and east. This should make for quite wild conditions for a day out in the Welsh Hills or Irish coast. Cloudy for most, with the possibility for sunshine in NW Scotland.

You can see the strength of the wind towards the SW with this chart.

Again, the yellows and readings of 1024mb around Greenland suggests that blocking is firmly placed to our NW, resulting in a changeable and wet scenario for us, particulary in the S and W with strong winds too.

The rain from the depression should move further north and east so some other areas are likely to see rain overnight.

Generally mild, down to around 8C in the Higlands to 12-13C in the SE.

Ireland and western areas still wet as the centre of the low is around the Irish sea although heavy rain is further north than earlier. Look at the trail of further low pressure systems to come out in the Atlantic.

Friday - 8th June, midday.

The centre of the low is further north, as seen on this chart from ECMWF.

GFS still shows closely packed isobars so I would imagine it would feel quite raw. To the north of the UK, high pressure prevails.

Temperatures struggling to get above 8C in parts of Scotland, 11-13C typically elsewhere, perhaps 15C in the SE.

Looks wet for most, except the south of Ireland and south coast of England and NW coast of Scotland.

Low pressure still situated over the north come midday Saturday.

Rain is centred over Scotland, Northern Ireland and the far south. Dry for parts of Ireland and the midlands.

Quite cool for NW England. 15C for Central Scotland although cooler in the north. 13 -15C elsewhere.

Sunday - 10th June - midday.

Again, low pressure situated in the NE although it seems to be less intense. There's almost a link between the high pressure over Greenland and the anti-cylcone at the south of the chart but I would think that low pressure would continue to go through.

Some heavy rain in the SE here aswell as rain in the NE. Some moisture in the air elswhere. Further lows out in the Atlantic.

With ECMWF, a consistent theme of high pressure to our north continues so as of the 10th, little change in the synoptic picture here. But how will it evolve throughout the rest of the run?

For Monday 11th, it's drier than of late with not too much in the way of prolonged, heavy, widespread rain. However, it's still a generally wet scene for Monday (still far out so things will change as we get nearer).

Less widespread and heavy rain for the UK except the NW, still unsettled but some drier and potentially sunny spells likely.

ECMWF and GFS both show yellow to our north and 1024mb over Iceland. That's up to the 11th now.

Signs of change? A cool Northerly flow continues over the UK and some rain is likely in places as it's still unsettled. But for once, there is now reading of 1024mb to our north.

ECMWF, continues to show yellow and 1024mb in the familiar places.

Pressure is lower over Greenland, and it looks like the UK is set for a break from the unsettled conditions with the possibilty of drier weather with high pressure to our west moving east.

You can see that a drier period is coming. Still, this chart shows heavy rain to the south coast.

ECMWF also wants to change things too, pressure no longer at 1024mb, green instead of yellow for Greenland.

We are far out here, so details will only become clearer when we get nearer to the time so further changes still. But indeed, on this run there is further change. Nothing spectacular but a notable difference from what we're currently experiencing. This chart shows a more settled picture for much of England but some rain can't be ruled out in the north and west.

We can also on this chart and the one before, that an area of low pressure could still bring a return to wet and unsettled conditions. But, as we are seeing changes now, things could end up different from a return to the Atlantic lows.

Beyond this, things are unclear. As we see a change in where the high pressure is to our NW, the rest of the run isn't all that clear with a return to low pressure aswell as high pressure moving all over the place. So I wouldn't take that seriously. But in the meantime, we've got a storm to look out for tomorrow which will be interesting. Up to around the 11th, this current theme looks set to continue with everywhere seeing some rain but it's a changeable picture so weather conditions will vary as will the models and what they are showing in the coming days. We should also take note that the models are hinting at change for next week so looking out over the coming days as to whether this change is still on and we get further developments on it, or we'll see another scenario - perhaps the continuation of high pressure over Greenland or something else. A fast-moving and constantly changing coming days in weather conditions so keep an eye on the forecasts and models and see what the weather brings in the short-term and to keep an eye on the next change in the synoptics.

[Bobby]

Could you elaborate??

JK.

Edited June 6, 2012 by reef
Removed huge quote

[samadamsuk]

Hi All.

Latest GFS does seem to move the lower heights further north east, and is atleast atempting to throw some heat over us from the continent - Phase 8 MJO Composite for June http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/JunePhase8500mb.gif

Cheers, Sam

[Robbie Garrett]

Dire run by the latest CFS by many standards, ridging very brief towards end of month with the ever present Greenland high spoiling the party. Some warmer weather probably to come, but this is still Fantasty island on the GFS. CFS indicative of some rather deep lows, 980-985mb passing through like they run the damn show towards end of the month, June could become one of the most unsettled on record... it wont go far from it, even if cancelled out by a warm final third.

I am ignoring the output at the moment, as it's a rather confusing picture...

Definitely trending towards a more neutral state, probably good for some warmth, with some thundery activity... where it goes after this will probably become more clearer second week of June.

Edited June 6, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[andy100]

I expect Gavin to be crying due to the windy spell.

[95 Degrees]

I expect Gavin to be crying due to the windy spell.

Is that really necessary, this is the model discussion thread, not the Gavin D's preferences thread.

[William of Walworth]

Hi Robbie, what you post for later in June doesn't seem to tie in very closely with what A Winter's Tale is tentatively suggesting for a slow/gradual possible drier trend into FI, I can see that he's reading different outoput from yours but his conclusions, albeit correctly cautious, do look somewhat different from what you suggest?

IMO everything's still subject to change, and to be over confident about what mid to.late June holds for us is fraught with danger right now.

[The Northern Ramper]

Gfs much better for next week this morning compared to other runs and yet on the Ensembles one of the colder runs and less settled than many others, probably in the middle for pressure.

Are we seeing the first signs of the GFS firm up on a better mid June?