Model Output Discussion 01/06/2012

[ohno]

Not really negative.. September can be classed as a summer month on alot occasions.. So we still got July/August/September. And its known to be farely nice into October.. Today is quite nice Lets hopee July and August give us some warm sunshine

[Backtrack]

GFS 18z gives most areas a settled and increasingly warm weekend. Dont pay too much attention to the temperature charts showing highs of just 20s. A general rule i use is that under high pressure you should expect 20c from upper air temps of 5c. Therefore most parts should see above average temperatures on Sunday. Monday sees a breakdown coming from the north but fine and warm in the SE.

I find it's not very often the GFS overdoes the temperatures, rather, underplays them. Johnholmes said as a general rule, add 15C to the 850's for the actual air temperature, although this will not always be correct. Also, where are the mid-twenties been shown? I've just flicked through the 18z and it shows a weekend of below average temperatures, and above average precipitation?

A huge high developing over much of the Atlantic has been shown in FI on loads of runs recently!

The ENS highlighted nicely the predicted high pressure anomaly out in the Atlantic, and to the South, with low pressure to our NW.

Edited June 18, 2012 by Backtrack

[phil nw.]

I suppose we can say the next 3 days are looking brighter and somewhat warmer for many with only a few showers dotted about, with the prospect of these dying away by midweek.The exception today is over N.Ireland where the showery activity is more pronounced with some longer spells of rain mixed in.

These 2 faxes sum up this weeks prospects untill Friday.

Another low moving in by Thursday bringing rain and then some beefy showers for Friday and into the weekend as it moves across the UK.

The changeable pattern of brief ridges and troughs with short fairer spells interspersed with showery rain seems set to continue into next week with the Azores high trying to extend north east towards us but being continually thwarted by the southerly tracking jet stream ushering more disturbances in off the Atlantic.

[William of Walworth]

I think the best and most succinct way to sum up the latest outputs is better, but still a long way from good. Subtle changes in the orientation of the flow means most of us should see less rain, more sunshine and somewhat higher temps, but it has to be said that Summer as most of us want to see it still remains conspicuous by it's absence.

My expectations for the coming week before I went away on Friday were prematurely overpositive, and there seem to been some rather downbeat runs to say the least, since then (downbeat from a summer preferrer's point of view anyway).

My main hope for the Wednesday to Monday period is that any rain hitting the SW (Somerset specifically!) will be more fragmented/showery. It's all about the exact track of the low later this week, and to my mind on current runs the specifics of that are far from nailed yet.

[Summer Sun]

The low at the end of the week is only looking minor compared to the previous few

After this things remain unsettled, but the bulk of the rain looks like been in the North and West with the South and East likely to be drier with sunny spells, but every where is prone to rain at times

Temeratures don't look like been anything special mostly average, maybe above at times for the parts of the south

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[shedhead]

Looks to me as if the ridge across the south this weekend is becoming increasingly tenuous on GFS, with UKMO having none of it and keeping LP in charge.

Hopefully GFS will not back down any farther, I'd like at least a half decent day on Saturday for Yeovilton Air Day, but the current trend is not a good one. Looking beyond that, there's still little or no hope of a protracted fine, warm and settled spell, but at least things do not looks as bad as during the first half of June, so I guess it's all relative.

Edited June 18, 2012 by shedhead

[DTHFCJ]

Looks to me as if the ridge across the south this weekend is becoming increasingly tenuous on GFS, with UKMO having none of it and keeping LP in charge.

Hopefully GFS will not back down any farther, I'd like at least a half decent day on Saturday for Yeovilton Air Day, but the current trend is not a good one. Looking beyond that, there's still little or no hope of a protracted fine, warm and settled spell, but at least things do not looks as bad as during the first half of June, so I guess it's all relative.

Cant seem to work the MO charts out,just read the extended outlook and the weekend sounds pretty good the further south and east you are..yet the output looks pretty dire..going by the ops

[Summer Sun]

ECM's take on the low at the end of the week

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

well looking at that the out look its not very nise with the tennis coming up can see them playing indoors a lot!!

[Summer Sun]

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204

well looking at that the outlook its not very nice with the tennis coming up can see them playing indoors a lot!!

Centre courts roof will be getting some use with charts like this

[Summer Sun]

Yet another low showing up on ECM tonight, the only difference with this one is some very warm air just clips the south for a short time

Edited June 18, 2012 by Gavin D

[Summer Sun]

Another unsettled run from the models today which is reflected by the lack of post's in here

Weekends low

And theres not much sign of summer even in FI

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

Edited June 19, 2012 by Gavin D

[Bobby]

GFS 18z is a right shocker for this week

Rainfall accumulation up to +144

Edited June 19, 2012 by Barb-

[Gavin P]

Here's todays model based 8-10 day video musing: Make The Most Of Today And Tomorrow:

Overall the models are painting a very cool and unsettled picture even out into July, by which time summer will be really starting to tick on...

[Alex]

Massive shock from the MJO which has pulled back into phase 7 rather than drop into phase 1, could have a big impact on the models this evening, I would expect messy!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

Will be interesting to see if the MJO still goes into phase 1 or coupled with increasing angular momentum whether we get a pattern change now?

[Summer Sun]

Massive shock from the MJO which has pulled back into phase 7 rather than drop into phase 1, could have a big impact on the models this evening, I would expect messy!

http://www.cpc.ncep....k/MJO/mjo.shtml

Will be interesting to see if the MJO still goes into phase 1 or coupled with increasing angular momentum whether we get a pattern change now?

What does that mean for the weather, what would phase 1 mean? Are we heading for a possible settled period?

[AWD]

What does phase 7 and phase 1 normally mean for the UK?

[Backtrack]

What does that mean for the weather, what would phase 1 mean? Are we heading for a possible settled period?

Phase 1 & 8 are the main indicators for settled & warm, so I'd expect phase 7 to be remnants of last summer, rather than much of an improvement.

Annoyingly, unsettled is the theme for the foreseeable future, and I see no evidence to suggest this will change, even by mid-July.

Edited June 19, 2012 by Backtrack

[Summer Sun]

Phase 1 & 8 are the main indicators for settled & warm, so I'd expect phase 7 to be remnants of last summer, rather than much of an improvement.

Annoyingly, unsettled is the theme for the foreseeable future, and I see no evidence to suggest this will change, even by mid-July.

Thanks BT its amazing how we get good settled spell's in Winter, Spring and Autumn but as soon as summer comes it just seems to know it sends all the settled stuff south to our friends in europe

[johnholmes]

Phase 1 & 8 are the main indicators for settled & warm, so I'd expect phase 7 to be remnants of last summer, rather than much of an improvement.

Annoyingly, unsettled is the theme for the foreseeable future, and I see no evidence to suggest this will change, even by mid-July.

I fail to see how a sudden change in the MJO is going to mean a sudden change in the 2x or 4x synoptic ouputs from ECMWF and GFS.

I agree with your suggestion that there are no signs of any major upper air pattern change into July but that has been predicted for some time with the MJO being shown to do something other than what it has currently apparently done?

[Buzzit]

I agree with your suggestion that there are no signs of any major upper air pattern change into July but that has been predicted for some time with the MJO being shown to do something other than what it has currently apparently done?

John, Referring to your experience, is the MJO known to make such a significant change vs the model output at times ? I only ask as looking at the current MJO forecast output from the models (on NOAA's site), I do not think any of them showed a move to phase 7

Thanks

[Alex]

That's my point, rising angular momentum and a move back to phase 7, could entail a pattern change. The important words being "could", however we are still progged to end up pushing into phase 1 and having a very similar July to last year, but I have a feeling something may change now with the teleconnections making a difference.

I await the models over the next 24 hours for any clues!

It's worth mentioning phases 7/8 in July and rising angular momentum is generally more settled and warm.

[Summer Sun]

Unsettled sums up GFS tonight with just a few very short lived settled day's, its looking quite unsettled for the Tennis at wimbledon at this rate the roof will be shut more times then its open

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[johnholmes]

John, Referring to your experience, is the MJO known to make such a significant change vs the model output at times ? I only ask as looking at the current MJO forecast output from the models (on NOAA's site), I do not think any of them showed a move to phase 7

Thanks

To be honest I have no idea , and am going to trawl through the Met O/GFS basic data inputs to see if they even use such data. I personally doubt it but I cannot say for certainty until I have looked.

As far as I know the models at data cut off time, 00, 06, 12, 18z, take whatever data is available, basically T, Td, P wind speed and direction at every point on that particulat models grid length, from the surface out to 60,000ft +. It then runs with no other input out to the end of its run, be that T+144, 240 or 384 using the basic laws of physics using highly complex mathematical tables to produec its ouput?

But correct me if I am wrong anyone but please give links for me to read up on.

[Summer Sun]

More unsettled runs from UKMO as well, it will feel warm in the sun be cooler in any rain or showers

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm