Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

[Aaron]

GFS gives me an 80% chance of a storm next week

[Chris K]

Could be fantastic if they verified, but we all know too well what can happen on the day regarding easterly shunts and disappearances over the channel..

Would we be looking at home-growns or imports from France....or both?

If the charts show something close to today's 06z come Weds night /Thursday morning I will be very excited.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Chris K

[Cloud 10]

Surprised there's not more "OMG THUNDER AND LIGHTNING!!!!" reports from around the Norwich area.

[staplehurst]

Surprised there's not more "OMG THUNDER AND LIGHTNING!!!!" reports from around the Norwich area.

Same! There's certainly a lot of ramp for Thursday which is still 5 days off!

Had quite a few loud rumbles, some moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds as that forced line convection went through, and what seems to be some form of outflow boundary on the back edge as it now clears to my southeast.

[VillagePlank]

... the potential for supercell development would look greatest just ahead of any pre-frontal shortwave trough ...

Yes - associated with the inter-front trough (just ahead of the cold front) is a complete ridge of theta-e, which, it seems to me to imply a rather large instability in this sector between the two fronts; the trough could well be the nudge that turns showers into storms,

Interesting minor dip over the SE region ....

Edited June 24, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Cloud 10]

Wednesday is looking extremely good for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire! 1000 j/KG CAPE, Lifted Index of -4 be like bombs going off!

Lewis

Nice upgrade from the 06z with a chance of storms right down the eastern side

of the country.

[Liam J]

Eastern counties are looking favoured for storm activitiy mid week, aorund 1000j/kg of cape and negative lift indexes of -4 to -8. Impressive cells could be firing up for the lucky ones!

Not much room for error on this one though, other models more progressive with the front than the GFS. A shunt eastwards could remove the risk significantly.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Liam J

[Cheshire Freeze]

Was woken at 6am this morning by a torrential downpour.....surprised there was no thunder. Had a look at the radar and we got hit head on by an isolated torrential cell

[Lynxus]

I would love for that to come off, if storms got going that would be a great day I think, even for us in the west

Im pretty sure ive never seen a chart like that in the UK before.

Id be shocked if it came off. But yeah. One can dream!

[Mapantz]

Im pretty sure ive never seen a chart like that in the UK before.

Id be shocked if it came off. But yeah. One can dream!

I've seen it quite a few times, but it's normally gone within one run. This has been showing a lot now, but i can see this being pushed further east. Fingers crossed though, makes lovely eye candy.

[DAVID SNOW]

Im pretty sure ive never seen a chart like that in the UK before.

Id be shocked if it came off. But yeah. One can dream!

Have you forgotten the "BIG BUST" of june last year? Charts were even BETTER.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Whats the chances for west cumbria getting a thunderstorm if these charts came off?

[James Irwin]

so should i be making plans to chase midweek in yorkshire

[Nick F]

Although GFS is being consistent wrt to showing lots of CAPE across England and Wales on Thursday and some kind of a thundery breakdown, it's still too far off to be specific. It's nice to look at, but there's a danger of disappointment if we take the charts too literally this far off then find it all cruelly taken away nearer the time. Seen it happen so many times.

Think GFS is doing its usual overestimation of DPs and hence CAPE probably ott.

[NL]

Whoo we have thunder...!!!

[seabreeze86]

Heavy showers getting going here, lightning detected further north from here but plenty of showers heading this way

[Liam J]

Quite a few heavy sharp showers running through here, even so the lake water levels are dropping off slightly now.

Edited June 24, 2012 by Liam J

[NL]

Reasonable storm just passed through, all IC lightning (as far as i could see) with occasional 'shotgun' thunder but mostly loud deep rumbles accompanied with torrential rain but no hail. Looking pretty good for perhaps more going by the radar echoes.

NW 5min radar.

[stormchaser1]

Afternoon everyone

Well wher did that one come from, CLAP OF THUNDER and its chucking it down too

[Lauren]

Lots of interesting clouds out there today!

[Love Snow]

Big Storm Lover but i don't Think West Yorkshire can take any more Rain this Week

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Im surpised Thundery Wintery Showers isnt on here as it looks like his area has a few storms passing through

[NUT]

Was excited to see showers quite near me...............then realised they we're blowing east away from me Oh well. Still looking interesting I say for middle of the week. Could be some surprises in store

[SnowJoke]

The GFS 06:00 MLCAPE & -Li is certainly some serious eye candy for Thursday, 2800-3000 J/Kg & -8 Li. If it's correct then the south & east are in for some insane storms with very large hail. Not sure if the dynamics are in place for supercell storms as i've not seen the ascents yet or wind profiles. Perhaps someone with more knowledge could confirm what is happening to send the GFS into GaGa mode, advection of theta plume maybe?

Edited June 24, 2012 by SnowJoke

[Gord]

Got the BTCC on ITV 4 on TV, live from Croft near Darlington...some interesting skies appearing there.