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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Ignoring this completely....it'll downgrade/all get shunted east as per usual.

Fooled once too often.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Funnily enough I was just looking at that. Will need to wait for the day before as things can change rapidly. On the day concerned someone needs tape up Carol Kirkwoods mouth as we all know humdingers is the word of death as far as storms go.

So far we've had none this time???

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Ignoring this completely....it'll downgrade/all get shunted east as per usual.

Fooled once too often.

ignore this completely...,.he's bitter! bomb.giflaugh.png

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

ignore this completely...,.he's bitter! bomb.giflaugh.png

Grrr...I cast bolts of lightning down on you...errrr...scratch that...we don't get them here....ermrofl.gif

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

12z is a cracker, if that comes off, you'll be seeing me setting up Poole as base camp, then following it all back up to Hull, getting a quick cuppa down me and watching it all again.

can only hope? biggrin.png

I'll meet you in Poole and you can take me with you. good.gif

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Looks very tasty for thursday but obviously subject to change.

What effect would the jet have on possible storm development as it is running

right across the UK.?

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Don't want to put a downer on things, but how many times do we see charts like that 5 days out, only to get heavily watered down? It happens more often than we see snowmageddon charts in winter! I won't get excited until 24 hours out.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Looks to me like the best storms will flare up over northern France then drift up as that area of low approaches up over the Atlantic.. Hopefully it will be blowy enough to blow some storms up north! Need those isobars to tighten up..!

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Yep, nice to look at for now, but you can almost guarantee the big CAPE will be dampened nearer the time and shunted east away from the UK, lol.

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Lewis Newbie

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

I think we will actually pull this one off guys, comparing it to seeing snowmageddon charts in winter like Nick said is a little ott , it's a completely different scenario, entirely different setup, purely different ball game, although I can see where he is coming from with regards too being let down.

Don't get me wrong thing's can and possibly will change, but the models have been hinting at this for some time now, more especially so the GFS, hence I reckon it will happen.

We have very warm, moist, air from the South, and a stagnant low pressure system, it could literally be like bombs going off.

Edited by Humber
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Merely a tongue in cheek comment re: the potential downgrade

IMO it was ECM that first picked up on the idea of a thundery breakdown next Thursday - for few days or more now ECM has amplified the trough to the west of the UK more than the other models. GFS, until now, had a flatter trough with more of a westerly component to the surface and mid-level flows - which isn't conducive to a 'plume' type scenario. UKMO still in this vein though, so caution needed this far off.

Hopefully the ECM/GFS trend continues ...

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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

I do NOT want any T&L on Thursday. No no no!. NO! I hate thunder and lightning. It's sooooo awful and scary and.....and....no way.

(Well it might work.) :D

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Actually, the 12z ECM doesn't look so good as 12z GFS or previous ECM runs ... too much of westerly component to the surface and mid-level flows for my liking.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

I think we will actually pull this one off guys, comparing it to seeing snowmageddon charts in winter like Nick said is a little ott , it's a completely different scenario, entirely different setup, purely different ball game, although I can see where he is coming from with regards too being let down.

Don't get me wrong thing's can and possibly will change, but the models have been hinting at this for some time now, more especially so the GFS, hence I reckon it will happen.

We have very warm, moist, air from the South, and a stagnant low pressure system, it could literally be like bombs going off.

This is what I am thinking, I haven't seen this setup yet this year.. I honestly think something will definitely happen!

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Lewis Newbie

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Actually, the 12z ECM doesn't look so good as 12z GFS or previous ECM runs ... too much of westerly component to the surface and mid-level flows for my liking.

Lost the link to the ECMWF but from what you just said does that mean the ECM has the LP further east with the angle giving way to a more WSW surface and mid level flow?

If that's the case not good, and this would probably mean areas further North could miss out on the action, with the SE/EA and Kent in the firing line?

Lewis

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Don't want to put a downer on things, but how many times do we see charts like that 5 days out, only to get heavily watered down? It happens more often than we see snowmageddon charts in winter! I won't get excited until 24 hours out.

laugh.png

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Lost the link to the ECMWF but from what you just said does that mean the ECM has the LP further east with the angle giving way to a more WSW surface and mid level flow?

If that's the case not good, and this would probably mean areas further North could miss out on the action, with the SE/EA and Kent in the firing line?

Lewis

Looks like more torrential rain for northern areas while the SE keeps dry on the 12z ECM on Thursday:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

If everything is shunted east again i would be tempted to take a quick day trip to Holland/Belgium.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

If everything is shunted east again i would be tempted to take a quick day trip to Holland/Belgium.

If everything is shunted east again I would be tempted to take a long vacation to the funny farm! crazy.gif

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Norfolk Sheep Seasoned

Norfolk Sheep

Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
Posted

I do NOT want any T&L on Thursday. No no no!. NO! I hate thunder and lightning. It's sooooo awful and scary and.....and....no way.

(Well it might work.) biggrin.png

Aww, want me to hold your hand? :D We can hide under a cushion together blink.pngshok.gifrofl.gif

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Sprites Seasoned

Sprites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK
Posted

Some potential for thunder tmrw, if the rain clears away and lets the sun through, bristol across to norfolk may see best potential, most areas could catch scattered heavy showers after the rain clears..

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

If When everything is shunted east again i would be tempted to take a quick day trip to Holland/Belgium.

Corrected for the sake of accuracy and inevitability.

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