Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

[Hodr]

Unfortunately i wasnt here, i was in Lincolnshire and to be honest didnt see much other than heavy rain. There could have been thunder but i wouldnt have heard it with the rain slamming on my car. Didnt see any lightning.

Complete waste today - should have stayed at home and saved on petrol. What i saw was no better than what would have been happening here

Don't worry mate you didn't miss a thing here. One strike detected in Queensbury area i think but that's it. It was too far east again over Leeds and York. There wasn't even much rain it's been overcast with small showers and drizzle. Look North said we might be in with a chance tonight, the clouds certainly look stormier than earlier but idk.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Did anyone tell the East? Since I moved down from York I can count the number of decent storms on one hand with fingers to spare. At least in Norwich.

Once upon a time it was indeed so Barely a week would go past in the summer without a storm and we had some corkers. Last really good night storm must be at least 6 years ago now; day time storms are run of the mill handful of rumbles and maybe a CG if you're really lucky..........last decent daytime events were 15th June 2009 and then on 17th July the same year. I still live in hope that at some point things will revert to their natural order

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Timelapse of the mad cloud movements as the East Leeds storm came over us- this is looking east and was a rush job when I got in so sorry for the rain on the window! There's some mad updrafts at the very start- its a free app so resolution is a bit limited- no HD here I'm afraid but hope you enjoy anyway!

bb

That's excellent, amazing movement there.

Nothing here today.

[Supacell]

Thanks Hodr, it does look like today was a typical heavy torrential rain with the odd rumble of thunder scenario. However, Aaron - are you out of the no storms club now?

I just get downhearted when i remember storms the likes of those when i was younger and then in 2005 and 2006. I have not really seen any good storms since Sept 06. I think a lot of us feel the same and are just praying for a proper all night MCS following a hot sunny beer garden day.

EDIT: I can see Norfolk sheep would agree with me then

Edited June 21, 2012 by Supacell

[mackerel sky]

Very heavy shower developed just to the south out of nothing in the space of 30 minutes here, and gave us a torrential downpour.

[Keraunic]

Well I'm still in the club then. @Sheep. Yes, I remember one night time storm 13th September 2006. Good un.

[Muffelchen]

The main low pressure centre is now over Cambridgeshire I would say but it looks as though a second centre has developed over the Lleyn peninsula, looking at the NW radar.

Has any one else noticed this and was this forecast?

[mattyk1985]

Looking at that heavy rain on radar in the North sea the northern edge of it looks a bit like Scotland lol

[Vince]

no problems sustaining storms in the North sea , unlike the channel , i just cant believe it !!!!! surely its anaprop .LOL

[Alex95]

Looks like the oil rig workers are getting a nice display tonight! Tomorrow sees a good chance of storms in the North East, but unfortunately I'll be in Leeds, then Cumbria later.

There is a small cell in Northumberland this evening, not sure if it's thundery though. Thick fog here, suggesting it is very humid.

Edited June 21, 2012 by Alza

[Vince]

here is a superb reply courtesy of Matt D from UKWW *************************

Hey Vince, it's frustrating isn't it! Nothing to do with the SSTs over the North Sea vs the Channel though (North Sea obviously cooler), it is just the instability associated with the high theta-w plume and strongest forcing from an upper trough have (*once again!*) overlapped just to our S and E.

Through the last 24 hours, the highest 850mb wet bulb temp values of >15C have skirted around our shores. One short wave upper trough moved NE last night and produced the band of heavy rain over southern areas, but with instability over the UK not great enough to allow TS development.

Today, a second and much sharper shortwave trough pushed NEwards across N France and into the southern UK. A few thunderstorms did develop over Lincs and around the Wash (a result of stronger surface wind convergence and surface heating here), but the greatest instability (resulting from 1. High 850mb WBPT values >16C and 2. Stronger insolation this morning and therefore surface temps in the low to mid 20Cs) remained over N France. The upper trough fully engaged the 850mb plume as it was leaving our shores late this afternoon - hence why mid-level storms erupted over the S North Sea.

Clearly over the last few summers we have been lacking the correct synoptic patterns to bring the UK these warm plumes, and then the suitable upper flow patterns to destabilise them. Patterns like this were quite frequent in the mid/late 1990s and early 2000s. Even the SE has been lacking them and this is definitely something I have noticed a lack of since the summer of 2006). I would like to think some thunderstorm stats for SE England over the last 10-15 years would back up my claim here (Jon Webb??!) of a decline in widespread summertime storms here.

There has definitely been a distinct lack of deep S'ly flow types through the high summer period across the UK in the last 5 years (the pattern of a semi-permanent ridge extending from Italy to Scandinavia and deep upper trough west of Ireland and Biscay seems to have been a rare beast). Instead the flow across NW Europe has been more progressive (seemingly being forced by/or causing frequent and persistent high pressure anomalies over the central N Atlantic/Greenland and high latitudes), with the warm plumes and steep lapse rates from Spain/N Africa tracking most frequently across France, central Europe and into E Europe.

This is something that has been alluded to in the Anomalous NW'ly flow thread.

This post has been edited by Matt D: 21 June 2012 - 22:22

[Lewis]

Upgrade on tomorrows storm potential on the latest GFS for the NE of England.

Areas from the Humber Northwards to Northumberland look favorable. 500-800CAPE with a LI (Lifted Index) of -3, could trigger some nice thunderstorms.

Will await the NMM 18z update tonight, won't be able to make another post tonight as I've used my 10 up for the day, so will post tomorrow AM.

Lewis

[Bluebreezer54]

Unfortunately i wasnt here, i was in Lincolnshire and to be honest didnt see much other than heavy rain. There could have been thunder but i wouldnt have heard it with the rain slamming on my car. Didnt see any lightning.

Complete waste today - should have stayed at home and saved on petrol. What i saw was no better than what would have been happening here

Supacell. If I say nothing else, I will commend you on your enthusiasm and willingness to travel well beyond your locality in search of a storm. Its something Ive noticed from many of your previous posts.

[Robbie Garrett]

Best chart of the summer so far in my opinion, BANK!

That would probably mean France would self-destruct.

Wind direction is directly from the South, so probably some big imports maybe an MCS rather than a north easterly direction MCS, very likely. It looks likely that may be slight wind convergence as the day goes on, storms likely to form out over the bay of biscay rather than the continent but most likely they could head in to the low countries. Hopefully that shows more nearer the time, besides it's only next Thursday!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Yay

Something for when I get back. Good to see you guys getting some Storms, nice Tornado Picture from Lincs as well, something that has been lacking this side of the pond this year.

Funnily enough we are wanting clear skies tonight for some Star Photography over the Badlands area of South Dakota

[Mesoscale]

That would probably mean France would self-destruct.

Wind direction is directly from the South, so probably some big imports maybe an MCS rather than a north easterly direction MCS, very likely. It looks likely that may be slight wind convergence as the day goes on, storms likely to form out over the bay of biscay rather than the continent but most likely they could head in to the low countries. Hopefully that shows more nearer the time, besides it's only next Thursday!!!

yeah its a good run but as time has shown it really is a case of hours before. I really hope it plays off but im seriously doubting that I will see a storm in the near future. plus -12 LI is very high though but it won't stay that high. maybe maximum of -6/8

[Darren Bown]

Estofex has a level 1 in force in eastern england today. Been coming down all night here.

[Supacell]

Supacell. If I say nothing else, I will commend you on your enthusiasm and willingness to travel well beyond your locality in search of a storm. Its something Ive noticed from many of your previous posts.

Thank you, i am a little storm obsessed though to be honest

I am planning to push the boat even further when i get the chance and head down to the south coast to film imports from France. But i havent had the opportunity yet and certainly wouldnt travel that far for a low risk of it happening.

Maybe next Thursday

[Coast]

Estofex has a level 1 in force in eastern england today. Been coming down all night here.

Owww yes, not often we get that, so lets dig down deeper!!!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 22 Jun 2012 06:00 to Sat 23 Jun 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 22 Jun 2012 02:19

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for E-UK/far SE Scotland mainly for an isolated tornado and flash flood event.

SYNOPSIS

A deep cyclonic vortex still affects most parts of W/NW Europe with diffluent streamline pattern ongoing over E-Europe. Stable and hot conditions prevail over the Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... UK ...

Placed beneath the deep cyclonic vortex and with adequate BL moisture present for roughly 500 J/kg SBCAPE, a few thunderstorms are forecast, mainly over E-UK. With augmented LL CAPE and weak background shear, a few funnels/short lived tornadoes are possible, next to marginal hail. Slow storm motion and enhanced inflow from offshore areas may also increase a localized flash flood risk. The risk diminishes after sunset.

SkyWarn say:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #032

ISSUED: 2000UTC THURSDAY 21ST JUNE 2012 (GJ/GS/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

NORTHWEST ENGLAND NORTHEAST ENGLAND SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND EASTERN SCOTLAND NORTH WALES

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200UTC SATURDAY 23RD JUNE 2012

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WITH WARM AND SATURATED OCCLUDED FRONTS GENERATING HEAVY PERSISTENT RAINFALL.

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...PERSISTENT RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONFIDENCE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITHIN THE REGIONS SPECIFIED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DETAILED IN WATCH #031 CONSOLIDATES OVER NORTHERN ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE NORTH SEA FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING TONIGHT, THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NORTHEAST ENGLAND AND EASTERN SCOTLAND WILL GENERATE HEAVY RAIN, POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING 20MM IN A 6HR PERIOD. INTO FRIDAY, THE WRAPPING OCCLUSION AFFECTS THE REMAINING WARNING AREAS WITH PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG WINDS, GUSTING TO 50MPH, ENHANCING RAINFALL ON WEST-FACING SLOPES. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 50MM ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF THESE REGIONS, BUT POSSIBLY ALSO OVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHWEST ENGLAND AND SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND IRRESPECTIVE OF ELEVATION. EXCESSIVE SURFACE RUN-OFF AND SHARP RIVER CATCHMENT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

Seems to coincide with ESTOFEX and covers much of the North of England and SE Scotland. Another messy day in the atmosphere:

21st OWS agreeing with everything else so far:

Lightning possible in the North and beyond:

The Scottish boarders and surrounding look favourite

Lapse rates up in that area too:

More rain!!!

and a slight tornado risk in the Midlands and surrounding areas:

Is it me, or do I keep thinking I'm looking at October charts???!!!

[Stuart]

Good luck all

I dont want to khow that coast about the Scottish Borders

Edited June 22, 2012 by Stuart

[Coast]

I dont want to khow that coast about the Scottish Borders

Have to admit I was thinking about you there reading those Stuart, you picked a bad time to move away!!!!!

[Evening thunder]

I'm going to be in Holland for the 3rd-10th July. I assume the charts in FI that are showing their pattern changing to a cool NW'erly on the 3rd will be correct then

[Muffelchen]

They keep on saying there are weather warnings out for the NW of England but nothing for here has been mentioned on Radio 5 Live. However, we have had constant heavy rain since the early hours and I have surface water in my back garden (on chalk!) so a lot has fallen - 17.1mm in total yesterday (till nine this morning).

In terms of convective rainfall, what we have at the mo feels very dynamic in nature but I see from the posts above that we have an Estofex Level 1 over us.

It looks like another interesting day weather-wise in this part of the world....

[Deluxe]

Yes plenty of rain around at the moment, under very grey, leaden skies. It's always difficult to see convective activity occuring when conditions are like this, but pretty much all the main models/charts show good potential - I just hope we can tap into it

[syncmaster]

Yes plenty of rain around at the moment, under very grey, leaden skies. It's always difficult to see convective activity occuring when conditions are like this, but pretty much all the main models/charts show good potential - I just hope we can tap into it

very much agree, just like yesterday, grey misty drizzle, pretty much all day the charts showed all the potential just coudnt see it happening with the murk and low cloud then boom all out of knowhere took the leccy out for a bit wasnt a prolonged storm but quite potent at the time just goes to show appearences can be deceiving even the weather,,lol