Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

good afternoon weather is foul here heavy rain most of the day so far and looking at the models for the next 2 weeks are foul and if this carry on the weather for the Olympics will be no better

[bluearmy]

06z gefs continue the trend. 00z ecm london ecm ens also staying on an improving theme beyond the 20th. Keep the faith people. You never know.

[johnholmes]

An annoying, upsetting, frustrating update from the Met Office. The models reflect their output. Summer is over.

Climatologically this is the warmest part of the year, but this year a protracted spell of hot, sunny weather looks very unlikely. In fact inclement weather that has characterised June and early July will probably still be in evidence, although overall conditions are unlikely to be as bad. Forecasts for the southern half of the UK favour below average sunshine amounts, with mean daytime temperatures about four times more likely to be below average than above. Rainfall in the south is extremely uncertain, though very wet conditions are a little more likely than very dry. For the northern half of the UK there are no clear indications of above or below average sunshine, rainfall or temperature, although as we move into August conditions here may improve.

forgive my bluntness but that is a daft statement, much like those winter is over after the first third of winter has been passed.

The prospect may well not look good for the next 2-3 weeks but then that does leave the final third.

How about some scientific approach rather than the toys out of the pram type of post please?

[CLH the red dragon]

forgive my bluntness but that is a daft statement, much like those winter is over after the first third of winter has been passed.

The prospect may well not look good for the next 2-3 weeks but then that does leave the final third.

How about some scientific approach rather than the toys out of the pram type of post please?

It's the Met's statement John.

[Scorcher]

It's the Met's statement John.

Doesn't mean it can't be daft!

[Buzzit]

It's the Met's statement John.

Yes it is, And i do not know why they dont just say - "we don't know what the weather will be in a months time" rather than the bucketload of drivvel they get written by what appears to be the Prime Minister's speech writer - I can hear it now, DC stands up in the Commons and says "It is right that we provide the public with a 30 day outlook even if that outlook is not giving an outlook because that is what the outlook is and it is right that the public be informed".

And on a separate point, John is also right, because there is still the best part of a third of summer left at the end of the current Met outlook period, so to suggest "summer is over" is the normal tosh we get in here without any supporting evidence provided. personally i think there is still every chance of a warm final third of summer. Deep FI output has been improving of late - Todays 12z provides more encouragement.

[johnholmes]

The models reflect their output. Summer is over

That is the comment I was referring to-that is not what the Met O said but what Backtrack posted?

[CLH the red dragon]

Doesn't mean it can't be daft!

Indeed not, I was pointing it out for clarification. But, as John has said, it wasn't that bit he was talking about. Which means quoting the bit you think is daft is important. Anyway, we're way OT now.

[Backtrack]

Yes it is, And i do not know why they dont just say - "we don't know what the weather will be in a months time" rather than the bucketload of drivvel they get written by what appears to be the Prime Minister's speech writer - I can hear it now, DC stands up in the Commons and says "It is right that we provide the public with a 30 day outlook even if that outlook is not giving an outlook because that is what the outlook is and it is right that the public be informed".

And on a separate point, John is also right, because there is still the best part of a third of summer left at the end of the current Met outlook period, so to suggest "summer is over" is the normal tosh we get in here without any supporting evidence provided. personally i think there is still every chance of a warm final third of summer. Deep FI output has been improving of late - Todays 12z provides more encouragement.

Point out some scientific evidence to prove that summer is not over?

Because as far as I can see, the only weak signal is some tentative signs on the 500mb anomaly charts, with nothing else to suggest breaking out of this pattern at all by the end of the month, or indeed August.

[William of Walworth]

Even a suggestion right now of writing off (early) August is surely unwise.

I'm with the caution merchants on this thread for the time being.

Signals generally look unsummery for now of course (just checked em!), but can anyone really make super-confident writing-off predictions from the models beyond next weekend/beyond around 14th July?

I suggest not, however hopecasting that advice may look. And as already noted by some, even a very modestly more 'mixed' prospect than recent constantly rain filled days, will represent an improvement for summer preferrers.

Nick Miller hinted on Countryfile that you cannot say rain, set and match on this summer, but yes another damp squib this week. Further ahead I would suggest that the driver the Arctic Oscillation is progged to rise meaning probably the LP systems aren't going to have as much intensity to them. In actual fact I think the Arctic Oscillation is having a detremental effect on the angular momentum and the 30 day outlook. What I believe in is I think the UKMO 16-30 day outlook to me is very vague as the GFS operational and control are suggesting something which to my mind seems more realistic IMHO and trending to something better for southern/central parts.

Summerlovers such as I will strawclutch at this post from ledders, but there's a modest degreee of synoptic evidence supporting it too. A bit.

This week : unsummery for sure.

Beyond next weekend : not necessarily at all. At least in the S.

Embrace the uncertainty, and distrust all FI!

Edited July 8, 2012 by William of Walworth

[bluearmy]

how on earth can anyone state that 'summer is over' before the middle of july and then demand scientific evidence to the contrary ????? especially when we are now seeing the best fi ens output for around 4 weeks.

i expect the naefs 12z update to be another rung on the ladder out of this dross. i wouldn't get over excited by any op runs looking to bring in anything more than a transient ridge pre around the 20th.

[johnholmes]

Point out some scientific evidence to prove that summer is not over?

Because as far as I can see, the only weak signal is some tentative signs on the 500mb anomaly charts, with nothing else to suggest breaking out of this pattern at all by the end of the month, or indeed August.

and you have scientific evidence to back up your view that summer is over?

[Nick L]

Point out some scientific evidence to prove that summer is not over?

Because as far as I can see, the only weak signal is some tentative signs on the 500mb anomaly charts, with nothing else to suggest breaking out of this pattern at all by the end of the month, or indeed August.

Since when were forecasts for a month away 100% accurate?

Saying summer is over at this stage is a bit daft. We're in the summer equivalent of early January.

[phil nw.]

how on earth can anyone state that 'summer is over' before the middle of july and then demand scientific evidence to the contrary ????? especially when we are now seeing the best fi ens output for around 4 weeks.

i expect the naefs 12z update to be another rung on the ladder out of this dross. i wouldn't get over excited by any op runs looking to bring in anything more than a transient ridge pre around the 20th.

Indeed Nick.The later frames of the 12z mean outputs hint at a closer Azores High and more ridging towards the south of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m10.gif

Nothing too exciting but a little light at the end of this dark tunnel -maybe?

[bluearmy]

Indeed Nick.The later frames of the 12z mean outputs hint at a closer Azores High and more ridging towards the south of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rz500m10.gif

Nothing too exciting but a little light at the end of this dark tunnel -maybe?

we had similar output several weeks ago where the overall pattern remained similar but appeared to lift out northwards. this time looks a bit different with the flow looking less amplified from the west (lets hope so anyway as it didn't verify). wonder if noaa cpc 14 day output tomorrow will be an 'eye opener' to a few 'non believers '?

[Backtrack]

and you have scientific evidence to back up your view that summer is over?

No but that was my point, he was asking for scientific data to back up my point, there is none.

I was asking for data to back up his point.

Summer isn't over because it's July and it doesn't officially end until late-August. I was merely just commentating on what the Met Office were showing on their long-range output. I just dislike the fact that they jump from one conclusion to another every 3 days or so.

[Methuselah]

Can we please concentrate on what the models are actually saying?

[William of Walworth]

Indeed Nick.The later frames of the 12z mean outputs hint at a closer Azores High and more ridging towards the south of the UK.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rz500m10.gif

Nothing too exciting but a little light at the end of this dark tunnel -maybe?

Hopecasters will like this. With suitably appropriate 'distrust FI' caution obviously.

But on a totally unsynoptic note : we're OWED a more summer-like change by then!

Can we please concentrate on what the models are actually saying?

Something less entirely Jet dominated? Beyond next weekend at least?

Perhaps.

Edited July 8, 2012 by William of Walworth

[bluearmy]

housekeeping - 12z naefs is not a step forward from the 00z output. it hangs onto the lower anomolys for a day or so longer than previous runs but it isn't heading in the wrong direction - yet. no need to panic mr mainwaring !!

[johnholmes]

Unusually I'll stick my neck out for the upper pattern in 7-15 day time range.

It will change from its current one to a more westerly based type-I will post a pdf about it tomorrow morning-too knackered this evening.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree- I know the models were showing a similar thing a couple of times during June and it never happened, but the current signals for the 7-15 day period seem rather less tentative than at any previous point during the summer.

One possible concern though is that instead of promoting warmer, drier and/or sunnier weather it might just shift the regional distribution of the anomalies such that the NW becomes dullest and wettest relative to normal, rather than the east as has often been true recently. Still, with a westerly type, if the jet slows down then England and Wales in particular are better placed to see longer brighter showery interludes in between the rain belts, as slow moving fronts and banks of cloud have a habit of sticking around closer to depression cores, as well as potential dry sunny interludes via high pressure ridging/transferring from the Azores into western Europe. Last June, on the other hand, showed that with a southerly tracking jet it can remain largely grey and wet even if the jet slows down.

[johnholmes]

the promised pdf

Extra 500mb output re possible change from about 14 July 12.pdf

[Cheese Rice]

It's all well and good seeing a more westerly based pattern but this doesn't translate to anything substantial on ground level. In other words Northern and Western areas are still likely to be plagued by rain and cloud. Perhaps a respite for southern areas at times in the form of weak ridges from the Azores high, but still not a positive pattern change for a large chunk of the country (Scotland, N.england, N.Ireland etc). A NW/SE split usually fails to materialize into anything settled the further north you go.

Edited July 9, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[snowmackem]

the promised pdf

Extra 500mb output re possible change from about 14 July 12.pdf

Thanks John, as usual, a fascinating read. Most , including myself are witnessing this very unusual weather with fascination but at the same time wishing it would clear off pronto, we all have IMBY reasons !

Can you help with something that probably appears very amateurish ? What will it take for a pattern reset in this situation? Are we waiting for the Greeny High to dissipate/move, allowing l.p. to take charge there (leading to hp build from the South), or for the A.H. to build from the south, lowering heights over Greenland?

I have often wondered which comes first in this "chicken and egg" situation, HP dominance or LP subserviance,

All the best,

Karl

[phil nw.]

It's all well and good seeing a more westerly based pattern but this doesn't translate to anything substantial on ground level. In other words Northern and Western areas are still likely to be plagued by rain and cloud. Perhaps a respite for southern areas at times in the form of weak ridges from the Azores high, but still not a positive pattern change for a large chunk of the country (Scotland, N.england, N.Ireland etc). A NW/SE split usually fails to materialize into anything settled the further north you go.

I think we have to see how near the Azores High gets to the Uk.

What you say is true to some extent if the pattern remains fairly flat-ie the south/south east more likely to see fine weather with the north west quadrant still under threat from the Atlantic.

If we do however get some ridging into the height build then more of the UK would receive some Summer like conditions.

The mean heights from the 00z certainly look a lot better than for some time that`s for sure.

As JH said in his excellent summary it is a pattern change and i would say a step away from this persistent dross so for that we should be gratefull.

Let`s hope this translates into something to benefit all of the UK -we have waited long enough.

Edited July 9, 2012 by phil n.warks.