Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[Lincs Observation]

Morning all Hi have been looking at the GFS for a while now and signs after 144hrs (FL) that a trend towards a more settled period is showing its hand, There is a small low around 262hrs that may or maynot come into play but the last few runs seem to indicate a slack jet moving North allowing the Azores to ridge toward us. May we hope? Well its way to early to say but at least the signs of a change are there for all to see. LO

[shedhead]

Whilst signs of improvment are there for all to see, I think we need to remain a little cautious and much as during Winter manage our expectations, at least for now. It's great to see the AH finally ridging towards us, but it does look as if the main high pressure belt will largely remain over France, with SW winds still bringing a lot of cloud and occasional oubreaks of rain, especially to the north and west. One thing it should almost certainly be however is warmer, with the south and east probably becoming warm, even locally very warm at times in any decent spells of sunshine. So in summary, more summery but still not fully summery..

Edited July 10, 2012 by shedhead

[AWD]

Don't want to put a downer on things but according to Matt Hugo, this mornings EC 32 Dayer isn't all that great, with Northern blocking and the trough back over the UK by August.

I for one hope it's wrong, but as the Meto use this in their 30 day update, I wouldn't expect a update that we all hope for this morning.

Nevertheless though, after this weekends low, it does look like a welcome rest from the endless rain and coolness, especially for the south, with a good week or bit more of settled and Warner weather. I would just feel a whole lot better if the EC 32 Dayer was a good positive run.

Edited July 10, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[shedhead]

Don't want to put a downer on things but according to Matt Hugo, this mornings EC 32 Dayer isn't all that great, with Northern blocking and the trough back over the UK by August.

I for one hope it's wrong, but as the Meto use this in their 30 day update, I wouldn't expect a update that we all hope for this morning.

Nevertheless though, after this weekends low, it does look like a welcome rest from the endless rain and coolness, especially for the south, with a good week or bit more of settled and Warner weather. I would just feel a whole lot better if the EC 32 Dayer was a good positive run.

Keep quiet then AWD...

Gotta say that is disappointing news and not what I was either hoping or expecting to hear to be honest, but the ECM 32 dayer has been wrong in the past.... clutch straw, clutch, clutch straw!!

Edited July 10, 2012 by shedhead

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looking at ECM particularly there seems to be a remaining theme of LPs still tracking south even with slackening heights over Greenland. I'm not convinced of any real pattern change yet, but we certainly could do with one. Looks like some more seriously heavy rain ahead this week too....not good.

BFTP

[snowmackem]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jul 2012 to Tuesday 7 Aug 2012:

It is most likely that we will continue to see unsettled weather through this period, but there is also a chance of some fine days as well. Overall, conditions are unlikely to be as bad as we've seen so far this summer. Climatologically this is the warmest part of the year, but this year a lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather looks unlikely. This outlook gives a broad description of the type of weather that is likely to affect the UK as a whole, including significant changes in the type of weather and an indication of how it may differ from what you may normally expect. As the Olympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Issued at: 0325 on Tue 10 Jul 2012

Is it just me, or is this total gobbledygook?

What on earth are the METO on about, if this is the standard of forecast presentation, then surely we can diregard the rest of it.

Any comments JH , Old Met Man, or anyone else?

Karl

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jul 2012 to Tuesday 7 Aug 2012:

It is most likely that we will continue to see unsettled weather through this period, but there is also a chance of some fine days as well. Overall, conditions are unlikely to be as bad as we've seen so far this summer. Climatologically this is the warmest part of the year, but this year a lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather looks unlikely. This outlook gives a broad description of the type of weather that is likely to affect the UK as a whole, including significant changes in the type of weather and an indication of how it may differ from what you may normally expect. As the Olympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Issued at: 0325 on Tue 10 Jul 2012

Is it just me, or is this total gobbledygook?

What on earth are the METO on about, if this is the standard of forecast presentation, then surely we can diregard the rest of it.

Any comments JH , Old Met Man, or anyone else?

Karl

Assume it means heavy rain and wind? bold bit, unusual for time of year

[shedhead]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jul 2012 to Tuesday 7 Aug 2012:

It is most likely that we will continue to see unsettled weather through this period, but there is also a chance of some fine days as well. Overall, conditions are unlikely to be as bad as we've seen so far this summer. Climatologically this is the warmest part of the year, but this year a lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather looks unlikely. This outlook gives a broad description of the type of weather that is likely to affect the UK as a whole, including significant changes in the type of weather and an indication of how it may differ from what you may normally expect. As the Olympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Issued at: 0325 on Tue 10 Jul 2012

Is it just me, or is this total gobbledygook?

What on earth are the METO on about, if this is the standard of forecast presentation, then surely we can diregard the rest of it.

Any comments JH , Old Met Man, or anyone else?

Karl

I think it has been written for newcomers to the forecast who will be looking for Olympic weather updates... . I also think you will be asked to re post it in the relevent area, not the MDT...

[johnholmes]

as my name/initials were given then okay I'll give an answer

Why not quote the WHOLE forecast rather than cherry picking a bit?

The full forecast is below

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jul 2012 to Tuesday 7 Aug 2012:

It is most likely that we will continue to see unsettled weather through this period, but there is also a chance of some fine days as well. Overall, conditions are unlikely to be as bad as we've seen so far this summer. Climatologically this is the warmest part of the year, but this year a lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather looks unlikely. This outlook gives a broad description of the type of weather that is likely to affect the UK as a whole, including significant changes in the type of weather and an indication of how it may differ from what you may normally expect. As the Olympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1502 on Mon 9 Jul 2012

Further can you imagine the number of e mails, sms, telephone calls that are already arriving about the weather over the Olympics period at the various venues?

I see 'nowt wrong with what the FULL issue is predicting.

admin/mods

perhaps if there is not one already a separate thread for the Olympics weather for folk to chat in might be an idea?

Edited July 10, 2012 by johnholmes

[Thundery wintry showers]

A cloudy day for the vast majority today with some rain in places, tomorrow may be a bit brighter (though I still expect a lot of cloud) with some sharp showers developing wherever we see the sun early on. Thursday and Friday, with the customary southerly tracking "Friday" low, are likely to be dull and wet in the southern half of the UK, probably mostly cloudy with a little sunshine and a few showers in the northern half.

The Azores High ridge looks likely to come towards us during the weekend, but IMHO it will probably be just s short-lived ridge that will track eastwards early next week followed by another Atlantic onslaught. It looks like conditions will turn quite dry under this ridge but with temperatures and sunshine amounts probably struggling to recover to around average due to the UK staying in a west to north-westerly regime- nonetheless this would imply rather warmer and sunnier weather than most of us have been used to recently! Looking at the timings, the best day for planning outdoor activities for southern and eastern Britain will probably be either Monday or Tuesday, when the ridge moves across southern areas, maybe Sunday into Monday in the west.

[shedhead]

as my name/initials were given then okay I'll give an answer

Why not quote the WHOLE forecast rather than cherry picking a bit?

The full forecast is below

UK Outlook for Tuesday 24 Jul 2012 to Tuesday 7 Aug 2012:

It is most likely that we will continue to see unsettled weather through this period, but there is also a chance of some fine days as well. Overall, conditions are unlikely to be as bad as we've seen so far this summer. Climatologically this is the warmest part of the year, but this year a lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather looks unlikely. This outlook gives a broad description of the type of weather that is likely to affect the UK as a whole, including significant changes in the type of weather and an indication of how it may differ from what you may normally expect. As the Olympics draw closer the Met Office will have local forecasts so that everyone can make the most of the Games experience.

Updated: 1502 on Mon 9 Jul 2012

Further can you imagine the number of e mails, sms, telephone calls that are already arriving about the weather over the Olympics period at the various venues?

I see 'nowt wrong with what the FULL issue is predicting.

admin/mods

perhaps if there is not one already a separate thread for the Olympics weather for folk to chat in might be an idea?

He did quote the whole forecast, he just chose to highlight one particular bit.

[shedhead]

Interesting 06 GFS in the shorted term, which shows Thursday's rain missing all but the far SW and the S coast, with the largest totals running up the English Channel.

[johnholmes]

He did quote the whole forecast, he just chose to highlight one particular bit.

my apologies

However, I still see no problem with the forecast content-a sensible summing up of how the pattern looks now and towards the end of July and possibly into early August.

[Buzzit]

my apologies

However, I still see no problem with the forecast content-a sensible summing up of how the pattern looks now and towards the end of July and possibly into early August.

Agreed. Personally I think the Met is indicating the likelihood of a N/S split, people have to remember that the outlook is for "the UK as a whole" and I do not see any model output at the current time indicating UK wide constant summer sunshine. Perhaps the weather Gods will grant London a sunny Olympics at everyone elses cost. (Just one more cost to taxpayers )

Latest output does indicate the continued presence of low pressure incoming from the west, but with a change to a more SW/NE tilt.

[snowmackem]

my apologies

However, I still see no problem with the forecast content-a sensible summing up of how the pattern looks now and towards the end of July and possibly into early August.

I guess I wasn't very clear, my point really, is that the forecast is clumsy, clunky and badly constructed. I was kind of playing Devil's Advocate, I do understand what they mean but only because I follow the models and understand a little bit. However, the forecast doesn't scan right and may leave a newbie flummoxed !

Am I the only one?

Karl

[Gavin P]

Here's todays model based 8-10 day video musing: Settled Weather For Late July? MAYBE! http://gavsweathervids.com/

[BlueHedgehog074]

Here's todays model based 8-10 day video musing: Settled Weather For Late July? MAYBE! http://gavsweathervids.com/

Good video dude. Certainly some amusing times ahead with a chance of some less disturbed weather for the beginning of next week with the High Pressure to the South. But I agree we do seem to be constantly getting these Low Pressure systems from the West/North-West trying to do anything they can to visit the UK thanks to the evil powers of the Southerly tracking Jet Stream and the mighty Greenland High Pressure cell.

The GFS does indeed offer something more promising in very deep FI trying to build High Pressure over us. Just a shame that it is so far away, that it could easily downgrade on future runs. What I have noticed, however, is this idea of the GFS often showing High-Pressure over (or close to) us in deep FI on a number of its runs recently. In fact, I would even sell myself, my spirit, my house (as longs as mum doesn't mind), my jar of cookies, and my snow shield to the GFS to see an outlook like this come off: ;-)

[shedhead]

A rather sobering 12 GFS rolling out. Definate signs of something better next week across the south in particular, but the good weather touted by previous runs in FI is gone, with a strong, flat Jet firing one system after another at us into the start of Olympic week.

[Snowy Easterly]

nothing to get excited about IMO next week might be nice for a couple of days then its back to atlantic or northerlies again

[PolarWarsaw]

You can 1000% already no whats going to happen from around Mid November-Mid March. All the northerlies, easterlies and snowy filled winter charts we're seeing in the middle of summer will go into hiding and our summery friend the Azores will spend 5 months, not bloody budging from the SW of the country with the PV absolutely raging over greenland. There's going to be some aggrevating starts for the 0z runs thats for sure.

[PubliusEnigma]

Something we've not seen in a very long time since!!! Like meeting an old friend again

[A.J]

You can 1000% already no whats going to happen from around Mid November-Mid March. All the northerlies, easterlies and snowy filled winter charts we're seeing in the middle of summer will go into hiding and our summery friend the Azores will spend 5 months, not bloody budging from the SW of the country with the PV absolutely raging over greenland. There's going to be some aggrevating starts for the 0z runs thats for sure.

Can we stick to what the model outputs are actually showing as opposed to having an off-topic rant at what you think they might be showing beyond the furthest possible realms of FI

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

i just look here for hope!!! nothing up to july26 bar rain!!!

[Summer Sun]

More of the same again tonight sadly with low after low heading our way with the flooding risk remaining high for some areas - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

UKMO is unsettled for the rest of the week, but next Monday see's high pressure buiding over the UK - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=meto;sess=

High pressure is also shown on ECM it don't last long but its better than non at all - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

Edited July 10, 2012 by Summer Sun

[andy100]

More of the same again tonight sadly with low after low heading our way with the flooding risk remaining high for some areas

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

UKMO is unsettled for the rest of the week, but next Monday see's high pressure buiding over the UK

http://www.netweathe...tion=meto;sess=

High pressure is also shown on ECM it don't last long but its better than non at all

http://www.netweathe...ction=ecm;sess=

Sadly?