Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[Snowyowl9]

GEM follows yesterdays GFS but taking the low further east down the north sea leaving the mid-atlantic high for a chance of another settled spell later after the cooler N-ly next weekened,the high will eventually come back in maybe.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem1681.gif

GFS is the most extreme option out of any runs,torrential thunderstorms you name it from next friday.

[PubliusEnigma]

very warm chart and a very warm run in the reliable timeframe..

How can a north easterly off the north sea be very warm ?

[A Winter's Tale]

Good afternoon folks.

The rest of this afternoon is set to become cloudier in Ireland and in western parts of Scotland, Wales and England with the advancing cold front. A good deal of sunny intervals are likely away from the west and temperatures are expected to max at pleasant highs of 17-20C. Into this evening, some light rain is likely to be present in western parts of Scotland and possibly northern parts of Ireland. A good deal of England and Wales away from the Irish Sea should remain sunny into this evening. Tonight, cloud cover should increase further with the southern half of England remaining dry and clear. NW Scotland in particular should see most of the rain tonight with some light patchy precipitation elsewhere in Scotland, NI and northern England. Minimum temperatures of 13-15C.

Tomorrow morning should start wet over various parts of Scotland aswell in some parts of northern England. The morning should start cloudy for most of us away from the far south but later in the morning sunshine become more widespread in England and Wales although some north sea coasts could remain overcast. As England and Wales enjoys a sunny lunchtime, a second and a heavier and more persistent band of rain should be over much of NW Scotland and knocking on the door of Ireland. The afternoon is set to be wet with heavy rain for western and northern Ireland and much of Scotland. Skies in northern England and Wales may become cloudier once more whilst the rest of England stays sunny. Maximum temperatures tomorrow should be 19-25C. The south and east of England should remain sunny into the evening, Wales and NW England could see some light rain but Ireland and Scotland in particular should see the most persistent and heavy rain. The rain should lose intensity tomorrow night but southern areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland may hold on to the rainfall. Northern Scotland may have some clear spells but the best place for clear skies is eastern and southern England. Minimum temperatures of 14-17C.

There'll still be rain around in Irish Sea coasts and possibly some showers in NW Scotland on Monday. NI, NE Scotland and the SE third of England should enjoy good periods of summer sunshine. A warm day with highs of 18-28C. Ireland could have a wet Monday night as a band of rain moving in from SW brings heavy rain to Ireland and some damp conditions into SW Scotland and NW England. It should be dry elsehwere with the best of clear spells again in the SE. A mild night with lows of 14-18C.

Tuesday again continues the north/south divide as southern and eastern Scotland could see light rainfall. The Moray coastline however could have a sunny day. Ireland may have a day of overcast skies with light rain patches. Wales and south of Manchester again should have a sunny day. A warm day with maximum temperatures of 16-30C. Tuesday night is likely to be drier for all with lots more clear skies but Ireland and Northern England may remain overcast. Typical lows of 11-17C but the SE could see lows of 19-21C.

Wednesday again should be a dry day with Ireland and north of Manchester remaining overcast with typical highs of 16-20C. South of Manchester is expected to have a sunny and hot days with highs of 25-31C forecast. There could be a few showers around the coasts on Wednesday night. Western Scotland may have some clear spells but generally again the best of clear skies is south of Manchester. Minimum temperatures of 13-18C.

Some rain will be around in Northern and Western areas in the next few days but Tuesday night and Wednesday should be dry for most of us. A north south divide will begin from tomorrow as northern areas remain largely cloudy and southern areas remain sunny. The north should see maximum temperatures of 16-20C in coming days but the south will see the best of the warmth and and Wednesday indeed looks like a hot day with 30C expected. Tuesday night also looks warm in the SE so an uncomfortable night could lie ahead.

[TonyH]

It could be if sourced to the south off the Continent, and has often happened before

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is attempting to recover the settled weather by T+240 hours whereas the Gfs 06z is in unsettled mode so the big 2 models are pretty much chalk and cheese in FI so it's unclear which way things will go in the outlook although at least things are going to warm up and there will be a lot of sunny weather for the south in particular during the next 3-5 days but with more unsettled weather spreading to central britain after a fine start and the more northern parts of the uk becoming more settled after the rain tomorrow and monday but the second half of next week is probably going to breakdown the fine and very warm spell in the south but if the ecm is correct, high pressure will rebuild from the south but the gfs would sum up the summer so far.

[bluearmy]

at day 6 (which is the furthest point we should place faith in op output) ecm consistently verifies better than gfs. sorry PE, the facts dont support your anecdotal analysis. as far as working out what friday has in store, i wouldnt try too hard until after tomorrows 12z runs.

[mushymanrob]

How can a north easterly off the north sea be very warm ?

not common true, but i remember several days of upto 28c with a quite brisk northeasterly back in around 1984...

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=&mode=0

i know people on here are wanting a long hot spell if you look above after a few days of next week its back to normal

[Paul]

Can we stick to the models please.

[Backtrack]

Just wondering what the chances are the models will shift this further north to give us in the north at least a fighting chance of some sunshine Tuesday - Thursday?

Can anyone with an experienced eye enlighten me with my question?

[Uncle_Barty]

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=&mode=0

i know people on here are wanting a long hot spell if you look above after a few days of next week its back to normal

That chart looks very different to what we have had for much of this "summer" - looks good for the southern third of the UK at least, at any rate.

I guess it's "normal" in an average summer, certainly far from bad.

[johnholmes]

the 12z GFS, off Wx Online, which is always a provisional output this early, suggests its backed off very slightly for the weather on Friday but still going for a similar idea.

and for Backtrack it shows the front fizzling out during pm Wed into Thursday?

0-1mm by 12 Wed with T=21C and nil on Thur with 19C

for the London area it is showing around 8mm by 0z Friday in the London area, spot locations north and south of the Thames

It will be interesting seeing how this amount fluctuates as we head towards T+00

Edited July 21, 2012 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Can anyone with an experienced eye enlighten me with my question?

Hi Backtrack,

In my view, the models are showing some disappointing weather next week for the central part of the uk with the hot hazy sunshine to wales, the midlands and more especially southern england with london being the hot spot at 28-30c but for scotland and n.ireland it looks like pressure will rise after the unseasonally deep depression moves away during monday with fine and warm weather for a few days at least but then a thundery breakdown for the south later next week and then cooler and more unsettled generally.

Edited July 21, 2012 by Frosty039

[Bobby]

GFS still going with its low, looks very wet Friday and into the weekend for many

UKMO looks to be going a similar way at +144

[Backtrack]

the 12z GFS, off Wx Online, which is always a provisional output this early, suggests its backed off very slightly for the weather on Friday but still going for a similar idea.

and for Backtrack it shows the front fizzling out during pm Wed into Thursday?

0-1mm by 12 Wed with T=21C and nil on Thur with 19C

for the London area it is showing around 8mm by 0z Friday in the London area, spot locations north and south of the Thames

It will be interesting seeing how this amount fluctuates as we head towards T+00

Hi Backtrack,

In my view, the models are showing some disappointing weather next week for the central part of the uk with the hot hazy sunshine to wales, the midlands and more especially southern england with london being the hot spot at 28-30c but for scotland and n.ireland it looks like pressure will rise after the unseasonally deep depression moves away during monday with fine and warm weather for a few days at least but then a thundery breakdown for the south later next week and then cooler and more unsettled generally.

Thank you guys. I really was hoping the front would be modified to be modeled 50 or so miles North. This would give NW England some well deserved sunshine.

Oh well, I really need to move.

[Alex]

GFS keeps the warm weather for another 24-48 hours over southeast England, could be hot humid and thundery !

[Snowy Easterly]

just when the GFS keeps us in warm/hot air all week albeit with rain by friday and saturday, UKMO looks to give yet another rubbish cool northerly, if it went past T144, i hope the GFS is right with this as it was first to pick up this short wave/low pressure,

Edited July 21, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[camiscool]

I've come up with a conclusion that the frenchies have created this low to sabotage then Olympics because their city didn't win!

[Cheese Rice]

On a positive note the gfs projected rather dull damp conditions for Yorkshire, this has transferred further north over the last few runs allowing the sunny weather to extend north into Yorkshire and at time NE england. Unfortunately

NW England is still likely to be plagued by cloud and rain.

[Gordon Webb]

going on a day trip to york on Friday with a group of OAP's to help out and thought it was going to be nice weather , how is looking at the moment for friday even though I know it'll probably change by then

Edited July 21, 2012 by Gordon Webb

[Bobby]

GEM looks to be going down the breakdown route for Friday too, very heavy/thundery rain spreading up from the south

[Weather Boy]

I don't see the ECM completely opposing the GFS - it's still going for an LP coming from the south.

I accept that this following comment is highly impressionistic based on a view of all the main models and their ensembles (and therefore could easily be wrong) but it seems to me that the likely scenario is a breakdown of some description (could be heavy thundery rain) around Thursday followed by a rebuild without a huge amount of unsettled weather.

The GFS keeping it unsettled throughout, but it's worth noting that it latched onto that pretty suddenly compared to its runs only early yesterday - hard to give it too much credibility at this stage.

[legritter]

iv had a look today on sites all over or most i should say around the northern hemisphere . and the jet seems to be all over the place for this time of the year .i know this is often the case but reading weather forums from US/CANADA .ACROSS TO US AND OUT INTO EUROPE AND BEYOND THERE SEEMS TO BE ALOT OF CONFUSION FROM POSTERS IN MANY COUNTRYS .SO AT THE PRESENT THE LIKES OF OUR SHORES SEEMS TO BE HARD TO PIN DOWN AS REGARDS POSITIONING OF MAIN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS . THE JET IN SOME PARTS SPLITTING MORE THAN USUALL .IM GOING TO HOLD MY HOPES ON THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK UNTILL LATER TOMORROW AFTER ANOTHER 3 RUNS OF THE BIG 3 PLUS SUN FAX AT AROUND 10.30 PM .AT THE MOMENT GOING BY OUR CHARTS THE BIG QUESTION MARK STARTS ABOUT MID DAY NEXT WEDNESDAY .

[4wd]

going on a day trip to york on Friday with a group of OAP's to help out and thought it was going to be nice weather , how is looking at the moment for friday even though I know it'll probably change by then

I think the thundery rain will barely get as far north as York until late Friday on current output.

[Snowy Easterly]

just have to laugh at this shocking output by the ECM for the end of next week

http://www.meteociel...CM1-168.GIF?21- we are back to square one, make the most of this summary spell over the next few days

Edited July 21, 2012 by Snowy Easterly