Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[Bobby]

06z ensemble mean shows more troughing over us than the 00z

00z 192

06z

[legritter]

just popped in house to get out of strong mid day sun .justhad a look at charts and still showing the same generall possible change after wed/thurs .tonights weather for week will be interesting as im sure the professionals at exeter will have to get there exact wording carefully ;;;. .although the next 4 days will be fairly easy ,they probably wont mention to much about friday . i think more information will be released mon on week ahead bbc .i think the charts to watch will be fax and MET office ,as in my opinion gfs although i do use it for trends ,and it as come up trumps ,but when i spent 5 wks in us and canada june early july it seemed good at 5 days .if theres any new posters out there i posted a couple of days ago ,have a read ,and if you dont understand anything you see on net /w just ask there is plenty of knowledge on here .and be very weary of newspapers ,just remember by the time we read the article ,they are already 24 hrs or more behind current charts .thats probably trillions of bits of information ,but they are occasionally right ,cheers

[shedhead]

Very much a case of reality dawning across the last 24-48hrs, with this warm, even locally hot, sunny blip now looking very likely to be just that, a blip! GFS is again dire beyond Friday, with plenty of rain and steadily lowering temperatures, indeed a plunge from 30c on Thursday in the sunshine to 15c on Sunday in the rain looks far from implausible. Those who argued that London did not have the right climate to host the Olympics will be shouting the loudest next week for sure, let's just hope things can warm up and dry up before the track and field starts, otherwise this could turn into something of a disaster for LOCOG.

Edited July 22, 2012 by shedhead

[camiscool]

right climate for the olympics ahaha. londons fine.

[nick sussex]

Very much a case of reality dawning across the last 24-48hrs, with this warm, even locally hot, sunny blip now looking very likely to be just that, a blip! GFS is again dire beyond Friday, with plenty of rain and steadily lowering temperatures, indeed a plunge from 30c on Thursday in the sunshine to 15c on Sunday in the rain looks far from implausible. Those who argued that London did not have the right climate to host the Olympics will be shouting the loudest next week for sure, let's just hope things can warm up and dry up before the track and field starts, otherwise this could turn into something of a disaster for LOCOG.

Well all Olympic cities have some problems, its hard to find an ideal location, even Paris which came second is liable to have the same conditions, and even places that normally have good conditions can have some bad weather, look at whats happening in Beijing, currently worst floods for decades.

Of course Madrid was in the running but that can be baking hot, and Brazil coming up terrible humidity notwithstanding the terrible crime rates!

If the unsettled spell is more showery than thats not too bad, and of course alot of the venues are indoors. Personally London will knock spots off Beijing, there was no soul to those games, great organisation but most journalists complained of a lack of any real vibrancy.

I admit the output doesn't look great but we've seen turnarounds in the past, there is still some uncertainty as to how quick any troughing will depart the scene so for the time being I'm going to hope for the best!

[shedhead]

Well all Olympic cities have some problems, its hard to find an ideal location, even Paris which came second is liable to have the same conditions, and even places that normally have good conditions can have some bad weather, look at whats happening in Beijing, currently worst floods for decades.

Of course Madrid was in the running but that can be baking hot, and Brazil coming up terrible humidity notwithstanding the terrible crime rates!

If the unsettled spell is more showery than thats not too bad, and of course alot of the venues are indoors. Personally London will knock spots off Beijing, there was no soul to those games, great organisation but most journalists complained of a lack of any real vibrancy.

I admit the output doesn't look great but we've seen turnarounds in the past, there is still some uncertainty as to how quick any troughing will depart the scene so for the time being I'm going to hope for the best!

Admire your optimism Nick, as you say things can and do change, but if I were a betting man I'd be keeping my money firmly in my pocket for now.

[camiscool]

Completely agree with nick

[SLAMMER]

i know its probably not the right place to say this but i'd say the accuracy of the forecasting on here is pretty poor.

is there anywhere to see what people have expected to happen and what actually happens and the accuracy rate more than 3 or 4 days out?

/apologise for being off topic.

[MP-R]

What I would love to know is why low pressures are taking such unconventional routes this summer. This one progged for Friday just seems to loiter, moving around in a circle overhead but never moves away and just promotes high pressure forming everywhere else. Why does this never happen over France or Spain with high pressure forming around it? Anyone clued up?

Certainly looks like a gorgeous week of weather to come before then which is wonderful to come back to from a holiday in Malaga. Typically, I'm working until Friday when autumn is set to return.

[ohno]

It does happen over France.. Northern France as a pretty similar climate to the uk.. I know what people say about the Jet stream and keep saying it should be north of the uk this time of year..

From from a person who does not pretend to be an expert.. I think thats a fallacy.. The jet stream is in the position its meant to be in most years..

Of course it drifts north on occasion and some years we get good summers. But they are few and far between..So looking at models and seeing low pressure drift south. should be expected...

[danm]

It does happen over France.. Northern France as a pretty similar climate to the uk.. I know what people say about the Jet stream and keep saying it should be north of the uk this time of year..

From from a person who does not pretend to be an expert.. I think thats a fallacy.. The jet stream is in the position its meant to be in most years..

Of course it drifts north on occasion and some years we get good summers. But they are few and far between..So looking at models and seeing low pressure drift south. should be expected...

I don't think anyone is suggesting that the jet stream always stays to the north of Scotland for the whole summer, every summer. Even in the warmest of summers the jet stream can move south and give us cool and wet weather - the difference this year is that it has been further south than it should be for nearly 3 months! That is unusual - and it is reflected in the rainfall totals with much of England and Wales having their wettest April, June and July on record, and conversely the NW of Scotland being exceptionally dry (if rather cool).

An average British summer would see the jet fluctuate, but mainly stay over northern Britain bringing relatively frequent ridging of the Azores high and sunny, warm weather to southern England and Wales and cooler, wetter weather to the NW. The jet then does drift further south bringing wet weather to the south, but then it tends to shift further north allowing the Azores high to ridge across the south once more - the usual NW/SE split. This year it has set up home over the south allowing slow moving depressions to move across and fill, giving us days and days of wet weather. It has happened before, but it is far from the average British summer weather.

Edited July 22, 2012 by danm

[Jezzer]

Well, now next weekend's prospects appear to be firming up it looks like all my plans for the opening weekend of the Games will be totally ruined.

All involved the outdoors and entertaining friends and family. Keeping everything crossed that there might be a late change but just looks like typical timing in this sorry excuse of a summer.

High pressure dominating come September and October no doubt!

[ohno]

Its all about precentages. of corse this year as been particually wet compared to other years.. But in recent summer the jet stream as been in its normal position and thats streched accross the united kingdom..

[phil nw.]

Can we please just discuss what the models actually show for the benefit of all.

There are too many general unrelated comments creeping into this thread again.

Thankyou.

[Bristawl Si]

Another 5 days of lovely sunny, warm weather to come on top of last 2 days - a decent summer scenario for summer in the South and pretty normal really. No sign of really prolonged wet weather to come - well nothing to compare to early July and June anyway.

So add in this week's weather to what's currently forecast for next couple of weeks and i'd say it's a typical british summer - sunny, warm days mixed with showery days.

[damianslaw]

My eyes are fixed on developments over the NW Atlantic at present. All models are showing a deep slow moving low pressure system over NE States and far SE Canada as heights once again reinforce themselves over Greenland - warm air advection over Western Greenland. A sure sign of mid atlantic height development building into Greenland and trough action to our east, the end of July looks a cool showery affair under a chilly northerly.

Make the most of the coming days if you want warmth, in my eyes the models are showing a shortlived taste of proper high summer for the southern half of the country, whilst for the north Summer 2012 remains firmly on hold still.

Edited July 22, 2012 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

After a lovely summers week for the south it turns unsettled just in time for the olympics

July ends unsettled

Into August and pressure trys to rise once again

As pressure begins to build for the south it also falls again over Greenland and Iceland

Low pressure is then shown to move down from the north how far south is anyones guess this is FI so it will change

All in all its not a bad run from GFS in any sunny spells it will feel warm, and the outlook certainly looks much better than what summer has delivered so far

Edited July 22, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Snowyowl9]

Looking at the charts at face value you wouldn`t expect any rain this week.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

That front in the north coming south will I suspect fizzle out or spark a few isolated thundery showers as now we are in very warm uppers all week,so hit and miss.

Higher risk on friday.

[Summer Sun]

Could be plenty of showers around on Friday certainly for the south

Will be a shock to the system for southerners come saturday

Edited July 22, 2012 by Summer Sun

[kev238]

The theme is quite clear now although the detail is not

Hot and sunny in the south, cloudy through northern england, more mixed in scotland.

Warmth waning by friday.. Likelihood of rain or showers by the weekend with much cooler temperatures.

The message is make the most of the next four days if you are south of the Humber. If you are further north the days will probably be useable; however not enough to make up for a long period of poor weather ( outside NW scotlnd)

[Summer Sun]

Hmmm this has potential if things went right maybe another build of high pressure, with pressure falling quite quickly over Greenland it wouldn't take much for high pressure to move in

Edited July 22, 2012 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

Whoevers advising LOCOG on the Opening Ceremony must wish they were on holiday this week!

It's all looking very complicated with thundery showers edging up from France, whilst at the same time cooler conditions are expected to edge se'wards. The frontal boundary may well see some large rainfall totals.

Could we find a dry gap for the ceremony? Impossible to say at this time, thereafter we do at least see the models edging the trough away eastwards. Although theres high pressure to the sw at this range its looking reluctant to move ne but at least its there and with heights lowering again over Greenland theres a chance of better conditions returning more especially for southern areas.

[Summer Sun]

Its a case of close but no cigar tonight from ECM

Edited July 22, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

High pressure is trying its best to move in from the south west its a slow process but promising signs again

Interesting!

Having read some posters on here earlier today one would've thought the hot weather was a "blip" - if these charts verify in the coming days it'll be the wet weekend breakdown that could be the "blip"!

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with high pressure getting shifted back