Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 5th July 2012>

[knocker]

Latest rainfall and lightning. Looks like the Manchester area is getting a good clobbering.

[joanna1971]

Nothing exciting here in Shrewsbury, just steady light rain, am I right in saying that its going to stall and pep up later this morning, as per usual the Welsh Hills are acting as a barrier to us

[Cloudwatcher]

Got nothing here last night. Not even a rumble of distant thunder.

Dull, with light drizzly rain this morning. Same old same old.....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nothing exciting here in Shrewsbury, just steady light rain, am I right in saying that its going to stall and pep up later this morning, as per usual the Welsh Hills are acting as a barrier to us

Wouldnt have thought the welsh hills will make any difference? shrewsbury east of hills, coming in from east

[Coast]

OK, finally got a chance to grab some models to see if we can make sense of today:

21st OWS are saying Scotland midday maybe then subsiding:

Lightning ensembles still saying possibilities further down?

Aviation weather has it everywhere!!!

A bit of CAPE in the South later according to GFS:

Also other indicators for the South?

Blimey!!! That's some rain!!

SB CAPE again predominantly for the South and also Scotland:

and the lapse rates:

Is it my turn please?????

Here's the simple version from GFS later this afternoon:

[Cold Winter]

Constant, heavy/torrential rain here in East Yorkshire. Looks to be a bit of a clearance on its way from the east though and areas to the north of here (North Yorkshire and the North Yorks Moors) could take the brunt.

[Keraunic]

Raining pretty heavily here now in Ippy. Well done to those who were woken up by thunder. Ooh, I'm a teeny bit envious. It's a lovely way to wake up.

[Darren Bown]

Latest rainfall and lightning. Looks like the Manchester area is getting a good clobbering.

It's raining, but nothing particularly heavy yet.

[joanna1971]

Wouldnt have thought the welsh hills will make any difference? shrewsbury east of hills, coming in from east

Good point lol, perhaps i should wake up before commenting , just so frustrating watching everything avert around Shrewsbury, I blame the scientists in Switzerland for playing with that hadron collider

[The PIT]

As ever we're just on the edge so could well miss most the real heavy stuff as it passes just to the north of us. Just the odd burst of heavy rain here so far.

Surprised that we still have a warning for tomorrow when every forecast has moved the heavy rain away from us by early afternoon today. These forecasts stated this yesterday evening and just mentioned showers tomorrow.

Boltek reckons a storm heading this way time will tell.

Edited July 6, 2012 by The PIT

[Darren Bown]

Deep rumble of thunder heard, no lightning though. Gone very dark, and raining steadily.

[richardc1983]

Well that was a bit dissapointing rain easing off now! Nothing like what was forecasted!!!!

[Lynxus]

Nice dry day round here

Shame.

[TEITS]

Hardly raining here which is surprising considering some of the model predictions. Have to laugh at the performance of the NAE because if you look at what the 0Z was predicting at 6am and then look at the radar for the same time period it couldn't be more wrong!

[gottolovethisweather]

OK, finally got a chance to grab some models to see if we can make sense of today:

A bit of CAPE in the South later according to GFS:

Also other indicators for the South?

SB CAPE again predominantly for the South and also Scotland:

Is it my turn please?????

I think it could well be some time soon.

I just wish the sun could break through the murk as the AT is already high, DP is equally ripe so bring it on!

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Lynxus]

Quite funny, Yesterday the local weather had rain and thunder for me.

Now they show nothing.

They might as well give up on forecasting because its always wrong for here lol

[IanR]

For those of us West of the Pennies we will wait and see how this lot holds together. The main area of rain seems to approaching E - W over the Humber at the moment. Those in the East look like they are in

for quite a soaking.

any electrification will just get shredded and destroyed as it hits the north west shield, like yesterday

[Hodr]

Not bad to say it's only 9:20am. The rain is easing off a bit now but more heavy stuff is building and heading my way by the look of it. Not seen anymore lightning but heard a few rumbles of thunder.

Edited July 6, 2012 by Hodr

[BrickFielder]

There are a few embedded storms in the frontal zone moving across central and northern areas, particularly across the north. I expect thunder and lightning to slowly reduce untill temperatures start to rise. This area of rain is likely to swing round to the north west as clearer air comes in from the south east.

As mid level lapse rates steepen we could get a few storms developing here and moving in a north westish arc.

Forecast SkewT's suggest the cloud tops will be somewhat limited and wind speeds look moderate through the cloud area.A jet running over the area could produce some overshooting tops.

Zero degree isotherm dips a little around the south coast so perhaps a slight risk of hail here.

Its a bit of a wait and see what happens day with plenty of plain heavy rain for many with perhaps a slight risk of a storm. Key area to watch for me today would be I think Exeter to southampton.

Over all I think I prefer the storm chances for tommorow. Still some places are going to get a lot of rain today and with 86 flood alerts in place already I suspect this might be the story of the day.

[sunny scunny]

It's just about over here now, with almost 22mm of rain having fallen.

[Cold Winter]

Rain appears to be moving through quite quickly. Was this always meant to happen or is more going to develop in the North Sea as the day goes on?

[Supacell]

Just had an early morning storm here in Queensbury. Only very sporadic flashes and rumbles but better than nothing.

Not very easy to view as it is foggy here. I went out onto the hill for a better view but still not the most photogenic of storms. I did see something I haven't seen before though and that is lightning flashing within fog.

[IanR]

Deep rumble of thunder heard, no lightning though. Gone very dark, and raining steadily.

Bury is only about 17 miles north east from here

did you get any from that line of storms yesterday, they suddenly lost their thunder on approaching my area, saw and heard nothing but the rain was still torrential

I am expecting the same to happen

[Cloudwatcher]

Heavy rain now and looking at the V6 radar and wind directions etc, we are in for a pounding if the area of ppn around S. Manchester maintains its direction and energy.....

[Supacell]

Not bad to say it's only 9:20am. The rain is easing off a bit now but more heavy stuff is building and heading my way by the look of it. Not seen anymore lightning but heard a few rumbles of thunder. 4.5 mm Rain so far, still feels quite humid at 99%.

Nothing like that intense just a few miles away, although couldn't see the lightning for the fog. But to be honest the rain was nothing unusual here, just ordinary heavy rain. Very dark out there now, i wonder if there will be anymore?