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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 5th July 2012>

Jane Louise
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Dorset_Weather Contributor

Dorset_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
  • Location: Blandford, Dorset 102m\334ft ASL
Posted

It does feel muggy, but 20°C ? lol

I'm recording 14.8°C at the moment

Do you have cloud cover? Sun has been out for 10mins here and warming nicely!

I could say it was 25c here but what would be the point of that lol.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted (edited)

I wouldn't bet on it. I can see us staying dry all day as the low swings round & we sit in the dry slot. My faith in seeing any storms is at an all time low.

I think we are definetly going to see rain shortly, indeed its just started raining here in Bristol now. The confidence drops in regards to thundery weather though. I see some cells have come to life in Dorset and into Hampshire now, roughly where the 0z GFS had the best Cape and LI for the day.

After the rain clears the region overnight ( well most parts of the region anyway ), we might see something tomorrow. Thats or best bet for "Thundery Showers" IMO.

Could be an interesting afternoon in Dorset and Hampshire though. clapping.gif

On a side note, someone just asked Ian Fergusson on Twitter if there was any reasons why Bristol and surrounding areas escape adverse weather conditions all the time, and Ian replied "Numerous ones, too complex to explain on twitter". So there are real scientific reasons that explain why Bristol is the most boring weather location in the country. tease.gifaggressive.gifrofl.gif

Edited by Active Weather Dude
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lfcdude Accomplished

lfcdude

Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
Posted

Scratch that! My wife has reported lightning and thunder from just North of Salisbury where she is at work.

Now firmly hoping that aforementioned line edges N/NW!

Really??? The red echoes should hit Devizes soon... Interesting!

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Do you have cloud cover? Sun has been out for 10mins here and warming nicely!

I could say it was 25c here but what would be the point of that lol.

I do have cloud cover, but 20°C still seems rather high considering what's being recorded at the moment.

4r24yd.png

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted (edited)

BBC weather said "Intense Thunderstorms for the South" for the remainder of today. Bucketing down here, and just to think, 4 hours ago they were predicting just cloud for here.

Edited by Sainsbo
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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
Posted (edited)

I hope the everyone has got it wrong and it moves into West Country. Raining now...

And Lightning Wizard isn't working for me! edit: Sorted, cleared cache.

Edited by Thunder_Bolt
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

BBC weather said "Intense Thunderstorms for the South" for the remainder of today. Bucketing down here, and just to think, 4 hours ago they were predicting just cloud for here.

Not feeling it at the moment, but praying intensely...please oh please oh please oh please oh please....I'm storm starved!!!

It's been too long cray.gif

Needing this HIDEOUS cloud bank to hurry its way on through...those cells across France are striking me very much as post frontal pulse style storms...can see no hint of any organisation or indeed severity...perhaps we're going to have to wait until later this afternoon for the sheer to get those pups organised :D

Edited by Harry
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SimonP Newbie

SimonP

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard
  • Weather Preferences: T-storms
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard
Posted

And Lightning Wizard isn't working for me!

Back up again now - runs off the same box as estofex.org which also had issues yesterday..

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Pretty dissapointed from a IMBY prospect. Rain never more than moderate and mostly drizzle for the last 2 or 3 hours. Yawn. Feels like autumn.

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Kiwi Experienced

Kiwi

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
Posted

Been tipping down here. Looking at the channel/France on the radar we could have an interesting afternoon!

This evening I'm meant to be helping to set up tents/gazebos for Saturdays school fete ......although I can see that being canned at this rate!

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
Posted

Back up again now - runs off the same box as estofex.org which also had issues yesterday..

Ahhh ok. Just a coincidence then that I cleared cache etc. Thanks for the info.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Now up 27.3mm so far today. Getting impressive now. Can it pass the 40 mm mark? The dry bit to the east keeps refusing to come this way.

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

Looks like most places in the southwest and south will all turn wet soon with some thundery downpours breaking out in the SW

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

On a side note, someone just asked Ian Fergusson on Twitter if there was any reasons why Bristol and surrounding areas escape adverse weather conditions all the time, and Ian replied "Numerous ones, too complex to explain on twitter". So there are real scientific reasons that explain why Bristol is the most boring weather location in the country. tease.gifaggressive.gifrofl.gif

Sorry i'm being a tad off topic here...but I'd imagine perhaps one reason is because we have the Cotswolds to our NE, Welsh Mountains to our NW, Moors to our SW creating perhaps one big circular shield against the worst weather? Bristol Channel/Severn Estuary seems to kill off stuff to. I may be completely off the mark though and there will undoubtedly be other factors.

Might explain however why we seem to only do well regarding thundery activity when it travels up from a SE to NW direction over us. (e.g - 9th may 2008 when although a front and nearby trough was moving in slowly from SW, it was moving away to NW at the same from a humid SE'erly flow if you get me...)

Back to today, it does in fact look interesting for some southern counties later. One to watch as the afternoon progresses I'm sure.Would probably be a bit optimistic of anything reaching Bristol though haha (wonder why)

Edited by Chris K
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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted (edited)

Looks like the cells to the W of Gloucester are intensifying and backing up......one to watch me thinkssmile.png

Edit; The convergence is certainly there

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
Posted
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs126.gif - there is a chance for us later, albeit, slight! oh please do happen!
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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

4-storey building potentially at the point of collapse due to water saturation beneath it's foundations. Just caught the last of the report and sounded like it was in Darwen? E.Lancs seeing some high rainfall totals at this time and here in Derbyshire the local river heights now beginning to respond to the accumulated rainfall.

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Sainsbo Aficionado

Sainsbo

Posted
Posted
4-storey building potentially at the point of collapse due to water saturation beneath it's foundations. Just caught the last of the report and sounded like it was in Darwen? E.Lancs seeing some high rainfall totals at this time and here in Derbyshire the local river heights now beginning to respond to the accumulated rainfall.

Sounds serious. Hope they have evacuated. I'm still surpised Met office haven't given a red warning for this. Obviously having a very high impact on people, and they don't seem to be changing the forecast too much, so they look fairly certain of where the worst effected areas are.

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Looking like it could get quite serious along the A303-M3 and places bordering those 2 roads, there's been nearing 3/4 of an

inch of rain in less than 2 hours and the intense echoes on the radar are barely moving.

Here, approx 10 miles N/NW, it's been pimpling/drizzling for the last 2 hours but is so warm that the ground is barely damp.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

4-storey building potentially at the point of collapse due to water saturation beneath it's foundations. Just caught the last of the report and sounded like it was in Darwen? E.Lancs seeing some high rainfall totals at this time and here in Derbyshire the local river heights now beginning to respond to the accumulated rainfall.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18722054

http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/9803368.Darwen_buildings_evacuated_after_floods_damage_foundations/

Not good.

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted (edited)

Mapantz just beaten me to it lol. Taking a look on streetmap of the area effected in question and looks like the river goes underneath this part of Darwen, meandering as it does so. And no doubt any collapse of foundations will both block this conduit aswell as severely limiting the support of the houses above.

For now it looks like this is the only place in the town effected by this.

Edited by SNOW_JOKE
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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted

Sounds serious. Hope they have evacuated. I'm still surpised Met office haven't given a red warning for this. Obviously having a very high impact on people, and they don't seem to be changing the forecast too much, so they look fairly certain of where the worst effected areas are.

I completely agree that everyone is safe and cared for. As for the Meto warnings, I think a Red should of been issued yesterday evening as this is becoming a serious event and with more moisture literally pouring off the North Sea and helping to fuel more showers and areas of rain.

I think at least a Amber should be in force for Hampshire and Parts of Dorset, as that area of showery activity is just expanding and staying put.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I think at least a Amber should be in force for Hampshire and Parts of Dorset, as that area of showery activity is just expanding and staying put.

Unless the rain peps up, maybe. But at the moment, it's only spitting. Only just passed the 1mm mark lol

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