Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 7th July 2012>

[TonyH]

Im interested in the instability moving in from Ireland. Should make landfall in a hour or so in west wales so will be interesting what happens when it hits land.

It often tends to die over the Irish Sea, in any case a good 3 hours away if the air turns unstable here

Edited July 10, 2012 by TonyH

[AWD]

Im interested in the instability moving in from Ireland. Should make landfall in a hour or so in west wales so will be interesting what happens when it hits land.

Option 1. It will decay into nothing more than drizzle

Option 2. It will turn into intense thunderstorms over south Wales, but once it gets to Newport it will vere North West and head towards Worcester and the Midlands

Option 3. It will turn Thundery over south Wales then once arriving at the Bristol Channel it will lose all sferics and just be showers

Option 4. It will never be thundery, just showers.

[Marcus_surfer]

Im interested in the instability moving in from Ireland. Should make landfall in a hour or so in west wales so will be interesting what happens when it hits land.

Not likely thundery, and it looks set to hit around 9pm tonight

[sunny scunny]

Wow it's dark here.Yet more heavy rain about to arrive.

[Eskimo]

Wrong thread, but satellite is showing some strange cloud formations in the Atlantic

http://www.sat24.com/de/eu

[sunny scunny]

Torrential rain now and it looks like it's going to last for quite a while.

OMG this is incredible

Edited July 10, 2012 by sunny scunny

[Marcus_surfer]

Showers making progress in Irish sea now, have not lost intensity yet but have lost their electrical activity.

[Nick L]

Note to self: Move to Lincolnshire

[sunny scunny]

22mm of rain since my last post and it's still chucking it down.

[SimonP]

UKASF forecast for Wednesday is now out: http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/193

Synopsis:

An upper trough migrates southeastwards, accompanied by cold mid-levels (-27C at 500mb locally). A day of widespread convective showers is expected behind the surface cold front.

Discussion:

... SW SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA, CS & SE ENGLAND ...

To the south of the wrap-around occlusion, and along/behind the cold front, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Given predicted CAPE values of 500-700J/kg, some sferic activity is likely in stronger cells. There are indications, given an overlap of 40kts DLS and >20kts LLS allowing convection to become better-organised, for showers to organise into a distinct line over parts of Suffolk, Essex and the London area during the afternoon, with perhaps more widespread coverage of sferics here.

Sufficient speed shear may allow a funnel or weak tornado to develop over East Anglia and SE England. Dry and cold air aloft will result in many showers producing hail, potentially up to diameters of 1.5-2.0cm.

Showers will decrease in coverage rapidly during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides and slight ridging develops from the west.

... SE NORTHERN IRELAND, E IRELAND, N WALES ...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop in response to diurnal heating and 500-600J/kg CAPE. Some slight shear may allow cells to become better organised/longer-lived as they cross the Irish Sea later in the afternoon and into North Wales. Given dry air aloft, hail is likely in many showers, with the potential for an event with diameter locally >2.0cm.

Else subsiding diurnal heating and slight ridging will cause showers to rapidly decay during the evening hours.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

the showers in the south east still growing and ganing intensity to the west of London

[Sainsbo]

Wow, there was me saying yesterday we were due for 100mm of Rain on Friday, and now look at he forcast. A damp day with up to 9mm of rain. How things change..

[IanR]

Showers making progress in Irish sea now, have not lost intensity yet but have lost their electrical activity.

Showers making progress in Irish sea now, have not lost intensity yet but have lost their electrical activity.

Yet when thundery showers in the East hit the North Sea they dont lose electrical activity in the same way, what is it about the Irish sea, any explanations, this has always baffled me

[5thchang]

Clap of thunder from the cell south of luton and torrential rain

[Sunny Android]

Wow, there was me saying yesterday we were due for 100mm of Rain on Friday, and now look at he forcast. A damp day with up to 9mm of rain. How things change..

Looking across the charts, Friday looks quite a dry day now with most of the rain (and not even convective) pushing into the Benelux region, as for sferics, they are out into Eastern europe by then.

As for NW England here tommorow looks the best for Tstorms ?

Like you say it could all change again in 24hours !

[Raidan]

Haven't had any rain since sunday afternoon here and that was just a 30 second light shower,today has been plesently warm in the sunshine though the sky looked threatening at times but never materialised into anything,I also had a bit of interest in the storms in ireland but then thought like AWD has mentioned the irish sea and the(very annoying)Bristol channel kills everything off,not only that storms in Bristol are like the dinosaurs,EXSTINT!

[Andy Bown]

The Bristol Channel doesn't kill 'everything' off, in fact more often than not in W/NW flows numerous showers generate over the Channel

and move inland in lines across Somerset-Wiltshire and/or Bristol-Bath.

I fully expect at least 2 lines of showers in such positions from around midnight and through until the early afternoon tomorrow, they may

not be thundery but there will be some intense downpours.

[DAVID SNOW]

Clap of thunder from the cell south of luton and torrential rain

Rumble here too.

[Harry]

Just been through that on the A2...all I can say is, it was scary!!! Cars pulled over because the rain is so torrential, flash flooding, thunder and lightning, booming thundery...awesome! Can report also VERY low. And in places dynamic cloud base - Cb appears extensive, robust with green tinge...keep alert chaps, strikes me as ripe tornadic conditions (visually!). I'm now nearly home and aheadf of the cells...fingers crossed they've been following me home

[legritter]

lived in bristol for 50 yrs ,and it does seem like showers are killed off to our west BUT plenty of times bristols had torrential downpours, further west dry .where iv lived the past 10yrs inwinscombe i get a good view out to the west and it can be frustrating watching a good shower coming towards me then zilch ,its gone up to bristol . and the welsh hills pinching my snow showers .i always keep an eye out for the dew point s . also any activity of air rising will be affected by surounding temperatures . so the water to our west and the short amount of time the air as travelled up the bristol channell will generally decay a lot of shower activity ,BUT NOT ALWAYS .tomorrow will be a better day for bristol ,it could be an early start ,fantastic day up north today iv watched radar with amazement , interesting week ahead cheers

[Team Jo]

Just started to rain hard here, heard a few grumbly-rumbles a moment ago, lightning detector has started to pop up a few strikes this direction. Sky has a nice greeny yellow tinge to it......

[Harry]

Just started to rain hard here, heard a few grumbly-rumbles a moment ago, lightning detector has started to pop up a few strikes this direction. Sky has a nice greeny yellow tinge to it......

You in Beckenham or Essex?

[smoggyjester]

grrrr still had no thunder here in dull damp hampshire

Edited July 10, 2012 by smoggyjester

[Team Jo]

South Essex tonight!

[Sprites]

Had 1 rumble here at 5.10pm today , the back end of a heavy shower came through around 8pm, low flat base and converging scud, the updraught area looked like a small supercell, took pics from the loft.