Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 7th July 2012>

[Flash Elvis]

1 Rumble here......made me jump!!!

[wimblettben]

Nothing here as usual.

In fact there hasn't even been one rumble here so far this whole year!

[Wet'n'Dry]

Just had an intense storm pass through Basildon, 2 IC strikes and deep thunder, marvellous!!

[Harry]

Fabulous skies heading towards Rochester from the West!!!! Looks good....nothing to report yet though other than it looks fantastically thunderous!!!!

Edited July 10, 2012 by Harry

[Buckster]

cracking thunderstorm in Chelmsford 1hr ish ago - I was in middle of outside interval training with running club !

easily 15-20 strikes, some C-C some C-G

great stuff

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Haven't had any thundery activity here today. Just a heavy shower, and now, its just what was a load of showers out west merged together, giving an area of rain -.-. Best stuff looks over Essex and into S suffolk.

[Sprites]

cracking thunderstorm in Chelmsford 1hr ish ago - I was in middle of outside interval training with running club !

easily 15-20 strikes, some C-C some C-G

great stuff

i think it was the rear edge of your storm that passed just to my south, it looked quite organised and large judging by the radar.

[Methuselah]

Bugger all, here...

[mattyk1985]

Tomorrow is looking good, so after tomorrow, I hope I am no longer storm starved. But then again you can never have too many!

[Andy Bown]

Nothing here as usual.

In fact there hasn't even been one rumble here so far this whole year!

You sure you had nothing on the night of Monday 30 April? Storms moved to the S/SW of Warminster aorund midnight to 01.00.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Quite torrential rain in peterborough at the moment, thunder is a little too optimistic i think though.

[wimblettben]

You sure you had nothing on the night of Monday 30 April? Storms moved to the S/SW of Warminster aorund midnight to 01.00.

You sure you had nothing on the night of Monday 30 April? Storms moved to the S/SW of Warminster aorund midnight to 01.00.

No! I am pretty shure I didn't see anything that night.

[Richie V]

Just been catching up with the thread, Let me tell you It's been a crazy 7 days here in S75. No fewer than 4 seperate storms enbedded in fri / 6th's deluge and thunder observed every day including today since then. 149.3 mm rain since 00:00 / 6th july to now

[MP-R]

Well I can tell you Bristol will get thunder tomorrow as I'm off on holiday to Malaga where they have no weather. I always miss a thunderstorm or two when I'm away. I missed thunder in July 2010, July 2007, 2 thunderstorms in August 2006 and 3 thunderstorms in August 2004!

[P-M]

Rain has suddenly intensified over South Tyneside although wont see any thunder & lightning I dont think. It is forecast to rain all day here tomorrow I am sick of it now like.

Edited July 10, 2012 by Paul-Michael

[Lynxus]

Well I can tell you Bristol will get thunder tomorrow as I'm off on holiday to Malaga where they have no weather. I always miss a thunderstorm or two when I'm away. I missed thunder in July 2010, July 2007, 2 thunderstorms in August 2006 and 3 thunderstorms in August 2004!

If your that confident, Stay. Ill have your ticket

[Keraunic]

Just seen the biggest and longest CC lightning about 7 miles from Ipswich. It knocked out the lights in Ippy but we didn't here the resulting crash as in car. (i did have my head out the window though lol) Very heavy rain on A14. Fabulous!

[Biggin]

Tomorrow is looking good, so after tomorrow, I hope I am no longer storm starved. But then again you can never have too many!

Paul posted this on the SE thread for later today. Am quite excited lol

"Moderate Risk of Scattered Thunderstorms Northern & Eastern Eire, & UK 12Z-21Z

Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Dorset Through to Kent rest here

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/92387-convective-outlook-weds-11th-july-2012/page__p__811762#entry811762

[Robbie Garrett]

Trust Heathrow to get the bloody thunderstorms, and London too... whilst I am in Luxembourg. Did a day trip to see a friend (A Pilot for Luxair) and I had a delay of 1hr, then another 30 minutes before returning + 30 minutes holding in total due to the weather.

This is what it looked like coming into the UK...this evening. I do have a lot of video footage. I shall put it together of the flights.

and this is what France and Benelux looked like.

Edited July 11, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Robbie Garrett]

And this is what was left of the Showers that blasted there way though when I got back home...

[Nick F]

Valid: 11/07/2012 07:00 - 12/07/2012 00:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

Synopsis

Upper trough extends south across the UK, with low pressure centred over Norway at 12z, England, Wales and Ireland will be under an ustable W to NW flow.

... IRELAND, ENGLAND and WALES ...

500mb temperatures will be AOB -20C across much of the UK, due to presence of unseasonably deep trough/cold pool aloft creating steep lapse rates with surface heating. Airmass will be most unstable, with greatest risk of thunderstorms developing, across the Midlands, S/SE England and E Anglia - where greatest moisture and temps will generate highest SBCAPE (GFS indicates 400-700 j/kg CAPE). Though heavy showers and isolated storms are likely anywhere across Ireland, England, Wales and perhaps SW Scotland today. Vertical shear will be generally weak beneath the upper torugh, however, jet max around the base of the upper trough across S England with 30-40 knts of DLS by late afternoon suggests organisation of storms is possible across S/SE England - with a risk of isolated moderate size hail and strong wind gusts along with torrential downpours leading to localised flooding. Dry slot associated with jet across S England along with low LCLs and increasing LL shear as winds back ahead of the of a shotwave trough passing through during the afternoon from the west may allow a brief weak tornado to develop across southern coastal counties this afternoon too.

[Coast]

Busy few days coming up so straight in with ESTOFEX:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 11 Jul 2012 06:00 to Thu 12 Jul 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 10 Jul 2012 22:04

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued for extreme NE Italy, N Slovenia, SE Austria and extreme W Hungary mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Austria, Hungary, E Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland mainly for marginally large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NE Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Central Ukraine to Russia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

At mid and upper levels of troposphere, a cyclonic vortex is forecast over the British Isles with an attendant trough moving over N Iberia during the forecast period. Between these two features, a ridge over the Central Mediterranean and the high geopotentials over the easternmost extent of the continen,t a belt of strong westerly flow will be observed, covering much of Western, Central Europe and also Iberia. Closer to the surface, a large but rather shallow low pressure system centered over Scandinavia is simulated with its frontal system stretching southwards to Central Europe. A lee cyclogenesis is likely over the southern/southeastern fringes of the Alpine range, rendering the front a wavy structure. Most of the DMC activity will be likely tied to the pre-frontal airmass.

Not much for us today according to their forecast, UKASF say:

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 2012-07-10 16:10:00

Valid: 2012-07-11 00:00:00 - 2012-07-11 23:59:00

Synopsis:

An upper trough migrates southeastwards, accompanied by cold mid-levels (-27C at 500mb locally). A day of widespread convective showers is expected behind the surface cold front.

Discussion:

... SW SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA, CS & SE ENGLAND ...

To the south of the wrap-around occlusion, and along/behind the cold front, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Given predicted CAPE values of 500-700J/kg, some sferic activity is likely in stronger cells. There are indications, given an overlap of 40kts DLS and >20kts LLS allowing convection to become better-organised, for showers to organise into a distinct line over parts of Suffolk, Essex and the London area during the afternoon, with perhaps more widespread coverage of sferics here.

Sufficient speed shear may allow a funnel or weak tornado to develop over East Anglia and SE England. Dry and cold air aloft will result in many showers producing hail, potentially up to diameters of 1.5-2.0cm.

Showers will decrease in coverage rapidly during the evening hours as diurnal heating subsides and slight ridging develops from the west.

... SE NORTHERN IRELAND, E IRELAND, N WALES ...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop in response to diurnal heating and 500-600J/kg CAPE. Some slight shear may allow cells to become better organised/longer-lived as they cross the Irish Sea later in the afternoon and into North Wales. Given dry air aloft, hail is likely in many showers, with the potential for an event with diameter locally >2.0cm.

Else subsiding diurnal heating and slight ridging will cause showers to rapidly decay during the evening hours.

SkyWarn say:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #039

ISSUED: 0000UTC TUESDAY 10TH JULY 2012 (GJ/SM/GS)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS: NORTHERN ENGLAND MIDLANDS EAST ANGLIA SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC TUESDAY 10TH UNTIL 2359UTC WEDNESDAY 11TH JULY 2012

DEVELOPING UPPER LOW GENERATING FRONTAL AND CONVERGENCE ZONES IN A SATURATED AIRMASS, ENHANCING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...LIGHTNING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE A SATURATED AND SLACK ENVIRONMENT LIMITING THE CHANCES OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS, SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ENHANCE AN OTHERWISE BARELY UNSTABLE PROFILE. HEAVY AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUCCEEDED BY ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AS SOLAR HEATING INCREASES. AREAS OF ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND MAY BE PRONE TO LOCALISED ACCUMULATIONS OF UPTO 30MM, WITH GREATER THAN 40MM POSSIBLE FROM SUCCESSIVE OR QUASI-STAIONARY PRECIPITATION CORES. GIVEN RECENT GROUND SATURATION AND A HIGH WATER TABLE, EXCESS SURFACE WATER AND RAPID RUN-OFF IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS IN PRONE AREAS.

DURING WEDNESDAY A FURTHER LOW DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTRODUCES INCREASING LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ALOFT, PROVIDING SUFFICENT INSTABILITY FOR FURTHER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS OF SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND STILL OVER-SATURATED FROM TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE RISK AND/OR COVERAGE OF EXCESS SURFACE WATER IN PRONE AREAS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

Nothing from TORRO so onto the charts:

21st OWS:

GFS:

Big CAPE in the South and Ireland almost all day:

Big dark SBCAPE across the UK and spout areas in NW Scotland:

Lapse rates across Ireland and Wales:

a nice big blue patch for tornado possibilities and helicity on the South coast:

Something to look out for everywhere today?

and in simple format, thunderstorms possible here according to GFS:

Looking quieter for thunderstorms tomorrow, but into Friday afternoon:

[Biggin]

Skywarn goin for naff all in the South?? shureley shum mishtake ???

[Coast]

Skywarn goin for naff all in the South?? shureley shum mishtake ???

Probably not as their forecast only goes out until the end of today and some of what is potentially coming for the South is later tonight through tomorrow I believe?

[Chris.R]

Why was my post deleted? I was making a valid point about the wind direction stopping storms from developing here and how the weather in Merseyside and Chesher is so prodictible and rubbish ATM. I'm sure Carl from Wrexham and Crew cold ETC will back me up on this.