Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

[Coast]

Thursday into Friday still looking OK for the South according to GFS output:

Looking busy all week in the North from Wednesday:

But if you want a break from things, head to Scotland:

Generally seems to be not as active as it has been over the last month or so though.

[legritter]

morning all ,looks like some possible action coming up wed /friday .at this stage exact locations still up in the AIR .lets hope its evenly shared ,my thoughts at the moment are later wed and thursday as a few troughs get in on the act .sun will be crucial so with main fronts out the way [me hopes ] some good building could happen . steady boring frontal rain at the moment which as just turned heavier .cheers

[Robbie Garrett]

BBC has a Thunder Shower Symbol in place for this Thursday at 1900.... yeah right.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

I am on the early shift Thursday so I may be home in time for an evening show, if that's what's going to happen.

[mattyk1985]

Don't like how GFS has pushed the potential alot further south on Wednesday. I hope its just a blip and not a trend as it moves closer. :-( After Wednesday there doesnt seem to be any potential for here for the forseable future.

Edited July 16, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Heisenberg]

Don't like how GFS has pushed the potential alot further south on Wednesday. I hope its just a blip and not a trend as it moves closer. :-( After Wednesday there doesnt seem to be any potential for here for the forseable future.

Do you mean here as in IMBY or here as in the UK? how far south has it moved?

Thanks

[mattyk1985]

IMBY?

Its now from South of the Humber to about London area and across Western parts of England and Into Wales and Ireland. As appose to Across the Eastern Part of England down to to Essex.

So its moved more South and West.

12Z run is looking alot better :-)

Edited July 16, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Robbie Garrett]

Even more excited... http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743?day=3

THUNDER STORM!!!!!

[Coast]

THUNDER STORM!!!!!

Still looking OK, but not widespread:

and we better grab this chance down here as it's turning decidedly more settled and maybe even like a proper Summer!!!!

[AWD]

I like the fact the BBC have the thunderstorm symbol for my location on Thursday, haven't seen that in a while.

Any who's, most likely be gone soon. Does look like a lucky few in the South could catch something though.

[Chris K]

I like the fact the BBC have the thunderstorm symbol for my location on Thursday, haven't seen that in a while.

Any who's, most likely be gone soon. Does look like a lucky few in the South could catch something though.

You and I are both well aware of the fact that the symbol will magically transform into a light shower symbol by tomorrow afternoon.

[legritter]

grab it gang ,wed could be good although exact locations hard to pin down as usual . thurs also looking good more especially further south .dont get down over any azores high as it could turn in our favour later in the month if any high sets up it could turn winds into the south or s/e giving us some action ,all to play for , but 10/11 days is a very long time in meteorology . and 14 days is a marathon even with todays computers . look at 10 day forecasts all over the world and those last 3 days can be way out .on my recent visit to n amer /canada the last 4 days of every 10 day forecast the temp was forecast to be average ,and every time but one there was a heatwave ,short lived but seriouse .on the other occasion a heatwave was forecast at 5 days and it was 3 days at 16c plus steady rain , saw some brilliant storms but the hot spot was always 10/20miles away TYPICAL ,ANYHOW THAT WAS BACK IN END MAY /JUNE AND EARLY JULY ,WORLD WEATHER ROUND UP REGULARLY SHOWED THE UKS FREAK WEATHER ,MADE ME PIG s ,ANYHOW ENJOY MOTHER NATURES FURY ,REGARDS LEGRITTER

[Coast]

grab it gang ,wed could be good although exact locations hard to pin down as usual . thurs also looking good more especially further south .

GFS not holding out for a hero on Wednesday:

(except the extreme West and East strangely)

Thursday may be the SE and EA's days with a bit in Wales

Then it's time to get the BBQ and deckchairs out!!!!

[DubWeatherAddict]

COME ON IRELAND! :D

[legritter]

WELL EVERY COUPLE OF HOURS SOMETHING CHANGES ,we will all have to keep our fingers crossed and get the bqs out . but some hot spots still possible wed /thurs ,hope theres a few happy posters , will catch up later .

[mattyk1985]

Some slight amounts of MLcape around overnight according to NMM. Hopefully Ill get something tomorrow, wind shear looks ok best cape for this area is between 12 and 3 so missing out on cape at prime solar heating time, but we shall see.

[AWD]

You and I are both well aware of the fact that the symbol will magically transform into a light shower symbol by tomorrow afternoon.

And you were right. Psychic mate? Lol.

[Chris K]

Haha. It happened earlier than expected? Shameful.

From an IMBY point of view, I'm pinning my hopes for the High to drift East sometime in August and allow a moist Southerly/SE'ly flow at some point. Although uncomfortable, it would perhaps give us a better chance of storms.

There's at least a chance for some areas anyway over the coming days.

Edited July 17, 2012 by Chris K

[Andy Bown]

I'm wondering what's caused a line of sharp showers to develop from Exeter to Salisbury and on towards the SW London area.

We're under a broad warm sector with SW winds so there shouldn't be any convection from converging winds?

[mattyk1985]

I'm wondering what's caused a line of sharp showers to develop from Exeter to Salisbury and on towards the SW London area.

We're under a broad warm sector with SW winds so there shouldn't be any convection from converging winds?

Some Cape about plus slight convergence?

[Chris W]

Well, it became very sticky at work this afternoon in good time for the drive home - fan was on max! Temp 20, DP 16 and humidity 80% (was 86 earlier). There's some interesting stuff coming over the Irish Sea from Dublin (a very active storm location this summer!), where I notice that the GFS runs have been modelling a 'bridge' of energy from Ireland to Wales for this midweek. I should visit Ireland soon.

We were in a very sweet spot with energy being taken away fromthis region on later GFS runs, but with things coming from the west/south west and Ireland packing bags of energy with a little less over North Wales who knows if we could finally get something decent? A rhetorical question, as the moderate climate around here is very well-known.

Edit - I wrote that not having seen the 12z run, which has upgraded us a little in Cheshire/North Wales. Hurrah for that.

Edited July 17, 2012 by Chris W

[legritter]

nice day here warmer but partly cloudy ,our neighbour just came back from dorset and had a very hvy showe r on the way back . next two days still some potential radar watching , lets hope its spread around a bit

[legritter]

going by tonights charts plus radar i would not be surprised if met off ice put out a few warnings of ice ,sorry storms for other locations for wed thurs and possibly early friday .radar starting to look meaty , lets hope our strong sun can get to work .

[Chris K]

Well Skywarn have issued a watch for some areas for tonight and tomorrow:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #042

ISSUED: 1930UTC TUESDAY 17TH JULY 2012 (GJ/SG)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

NORTHERN IRELAND

NORTHERN ENGLAND

SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

WALES

MIDLANDS

EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 2100UTC TUESDAY 17TH UNTIL 2100UTC WEDNESDAY 18TH JULY 2012

ONCOMING JET GENERATING CYCLOGENESIS AND DESTABILISATION OF SLIM PRE-FRONTAL PLUME, FOLLOWED BY AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...PERSISTENT RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTS...HAIL...LIGHTNING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER RISK THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS ENGAGED BY THE ONCOMING JET WITH A PLUME OF HIGH THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ENCOURAGED AHEAD. OVERNIGHT AND INTO LATE MORNING, FRONTAL FORMATION AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WATCH AREAS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND PARTNER AGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST 50MM MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTHERN IRELAND TO THE ISLE OF MAN AND WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND, ALONG WITH HIGH GROUND IN THE WATCH AREAS. EXCESSIVE SURFACE WATER AND RAPID RUN-OFF MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT.

DURING WEDNESDAY, AREAS WITHOUT TOTAL CLOUD COVER MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 700J/KG CAPE GENERATED IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THE MIDLANDS, EAST ANGLIA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ENGLAND ALONG THE EDGE OF THE JET MAY SEE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR FOR ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING ALOFT MAY SEE ENHANCED POSSIBILITIES FOR HAIL AND LIGHTNING, WHILE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME STRONG GUSTS FROM ANY ORGANISED STORMS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

Edited July 17, 2012 by Chris K

[NUT]

Unlikely to get thunder here but looks very wet indeed late tonight/tomorrow

[Lauren]

Still not even so much as a rumble here for several months now.

Hopefully the jet stream moving will warm things up and we may get lucky.