Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

[ZONE 51]

Taking a look at some recent radar scans..

Some torrential downpours are shown as purple..

An area of Heavy Rainfall is developing in the Southeast South of London

Further North we have some very heavy and torrential downpours,

UTC so add an hour on these times

The latest lightning scan does not show any strikes(yet)

Although there has been thundery stuff on Friday

The NAE chart shows a line of downpours north of London from east to west-EA to Wales(chart 9pm-3am)

This heads South towards morning

HIRLAM also shows this line (as seen on the radar recently) the rainfall is slow moving (chart 9pm-midnight)

The UKMO model shows wet across much of the South(chart 6am-12pm)

Some unsable air around so i would expect some flashes and rumbles in the heaviest downpours overnight.

--

On Saturday low pressure still in charge, with some unstable air, and with rainfall around we can expect some thunder, any sunshine increasing the threat of Thunderstorms developing

GFS indicates the most unstable conditions across the Central South/SE England

Edited July 13, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Dean E]

Not very good as far as I know. Might even get to top up our suntans before long but don't count on it.

From memory, tomorrow (today?) is reasonable for isolated showers/storms.

Yes, we're being attacked from all directions. I believe, all of this is due to a surface low slowly filling over us and the lack of wind in moving the showery bursts along.

Indeed you are right, Low pressure has pretty much filled and left us with a quasi-stationary occluded front laying over the Midlands. Its left the air very unstable..

[picog]

We ended up with 46 mm rain during the cloudburst yesterday evening, and we,ve had almost 20mm overnight, just to top it up, Lots of local flooding, including main roads like the A49.

[Coast]

Morning all!

Here's my usual old nonsense to peruse:

Well result number 1 has the South East under an ESTOFEX level 1 !!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 14 Jul 2012 06:00 to Sun 15 Jul 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 14 Jul 2012 04:39

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Under the influence of a low pressure area centered over southern Scandinavia, a cold front is being pushed into central and southern Europe by strong westerly flow. A strong jetstream is present as well. At the warm side of the front a band of warm humid air resides in the lee of the Alps and increases MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg. Moisture and CAPE are weaker to the norh and west, but lapse rates relatively steep. The cold front moves through this environment during the afternoon, with a significant shortwave trough and a strong kinematic environment for storms.

...UK, Netherlands and Denmark areas...

These level 1 areas mark regions where conditions appear the most favorable for spout-type tornados. Both area see vorticity fringes in good low level instability, very high relative humidity airmass, as 00Z soundings also indicated. Storm motion should be quite slow and shear weak. These factors are often found during spout outbreaks, and indeed the past days the upper cold pool has had a history of producing funnel clouds and spouts.

Possibly also the coast of the Netherlands, Belgium, N Germany may see some, but instability seems better inland for much of the day, where flow however is likely too strong for this phenomenon. The early morning seems best and currently (04Z) there is a convergence zone in place with line of showers on radar (southern IJsselmeer) , so a level 1 was added here too.

UKASF, TORRO and SkyWarn have nothing so far this morning, so are ESTOFEX overegging the storm pudding today?

21st OWS say no thunderstorms:

AFWA ensembles show lightning in a heavy blob along the South:

So what's going on????

GFS has a weak level of CAPE down the spine of the country:

Not enough to worry about really:

But there is the convergence down over my part of the World:

and surprise, surprise Cilla, more rain!!!

Now here's that interesting feature that ESTOFEX must be picking up on along the South coast and in Western Scotland/ Northern England:

Low level lapse rates up:

But tornado possibilities are way down in France:

But look what's happening in the SE with regard to MCS propagation:

In simple terms, GFS says:

So another interesting day and maybe my region is in for some action with possible spouts and maybe some lightning towards the end of the afternoon. Great that it's a weekend, lets see what happens!!!

[Norfolk Sheep]

Northerly wind here, should keep anything other than a few light showers at bay but my goodness it's cold out there!

[legritter]

things starting to pep up a bit ,but todays action will be further east and south of me . looking at sat pics ,there could be a few surprises today ,best of luck to those that get something ,if you dont want itPLEASE send it my way

[matronshrew]

Band of heavy showers developing across mid Wales again, can see the tops from my house in Telford.

[Neilsouth]

Hail, big drops of rain outside

[gottolovethisweather]

The southeastern quadrant looks the place to be for an isolated storm or two. Strikes currently near Folkstone according to the NW radar.

Based on guesswork, I would say West and East Sussex, Hampshire (IOW eastwards), parts of Essex and Kent have reasonable prospects for today.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited July 14, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Neilsouth]

Damn this rain is really coming down! expecting thunder soon at this rate

[Sunny Android]

Band of heavy showers developing across mid Wales again, can see the tops from my house in Telford.

The line running from Crosby across Liverpool bay into Wales look quite potent !

Although I may catch the top part the rest is on it's way into Shropshire..... again.

[nwales]

The line running from Crosby across Liverpool bay into Wales look quite potent !

Although I may catch the top part the rest is on it's way into Shropshire..... again.

That line of showers is passing over me now. Fairly heavy but nothing out of the ordinary at the moment.

[Lynxus]

Well. Last night was once again a let down.

Brief shower and that was it.

Im seriously considering moving lol.

Just damp today, overcast and not much going on.

Shame really.

I suppose some people got some great storms? I could see CB's to my north. Just needed to be 20 miles south ahah

[Harry]

Hail, big drops of rain outside

Torrential rain here...no thunder though sadly

[Bobby]

A few increasingly heavy cells are moving towards me, come to papa.

Kicking off nicely in S. England now, some torrential downpours on the radar but no lightning showing yet, soon though I think.

[-uksnow-]

Can confirm first rumble of thunder here, very deeep and loud oop theres the second!

[Chris.R]

Nothing here in Crosby, sunny untill now when it has just started to rain lightly.

[Kent Snow]

Deep rumble of thunder from a passing shower.

[Snow Queen one]

Kent I trump you I have had 2 rumbles of thunder lol

[Neilsouth]

Thunder!

The car parks are getting flooded, some roads are covered in water and people have to go around lol

What a day, turning out to be the worst summer so far

[Wet'n'Dry]

An absolute deluge this morning, I have an inch of standing water on already sodden grass! Now hearing 2 strikes per minute on my radio, rain today shows the rain approaching from due West, but locally the cloud is travelling East to West?

[Kent Snow]

Fairly frequent rumbles of thunder now. No lightning observed though. The rain continues to sheet down.

[Snow Cat]

Two thunder storms in a row down here about half hour so far, monsoon rain, lightning and thunder.

[Lynxus]

Two thunder storms in a row down here about half hour so far, monsoon rain, lightning and thunder.

Video?

Shame this stuff to my west isnt "stormy" just damn rain

Edited July 14, 2012 by Lynxus

[flysurfer]

bad flooding in dover ,, serios booms of thunder and plenty of lightning.. will get some video footage up later...

reports of a small tornado as well on facebook

Edited July 14, 2012 by flysurfer