South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - July 12th 2012>

[Steve C]

The radar isn't as exciting as I'd thought it might've been by now! Was hoping to come home from work to see lots of showers breaking out

I didn't think the CAPE / LI forecast was brilliant this morning, but Kent seemed most favoured in our zone.

My mind has gone from storms for the moment (I think they've only been figments recently anyway...) Now in potential summery weather mode.

When a potentially decent thundery spell reappears, I'll change again.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Steve C

[Keraunic]

I didn't think the CAPE / LI forecast was brilliant this morning, but Kent seemed most favoured in our zone.

My mind has gone from storms for the moment (I think they've only been figments recently anyway...) Now in potential summery weather mode.

When a potentially decent thundery spell reappears, I'll change again.

They are just myths like Thor I think. Very muggy here now after some fairly heavy rain earlier today and very overcast.

[Steve C]

They are just myths like Thor I think. Very muggy here now after some fairly heavy rain earlier today and very overcast.

The BBC forecast for tomorrow looks reasonably optimistic for one last chance of thunder before the warm spell. The models here don't look that great to me though.

[Keraunic]

No, the LI and Cape doesn't look too brilliant either. Maybe some for parts of the SE and Midlands. But bearing in mind I'm just learning to read those charts so I may be totally wrong. Please correct me if I am.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

valid from 0005 Fri 20 Jul to 2200 Fri 20 Jul

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

valid from 0005 Fri 20 Jul to 2200 Fri 20 Jul

Issued at: 1644 on Thu 19 Jul 2012

Heavy showers may become slow moving and merge to give 1-2 hours of heavy rain with a risk of isolated thunder. There is a small risk of localised surface water flooding, particularly in urban areas. As with all showery events many places will miss the heaviest rain and some may stay dry all day.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=E04F615B-6890-3688-94CE-9FDBD216F715_1_SE

[Steve C]

No, the LI and Cape doesn't look too brilliant either. Maybe some for parts of the SE and Midlands. But bearing in mind I'm just learning to read those charts so I may be totally wrong. Please correct me if I am.

Same as I was looking at.

I've only recently (last couple of months) been taking a keen interest in the different models and there's definitely a lot of learning to be done here ! Some of the charts posted on this site I have to really study and interpret, as they are not natural to me at all. Give me a year before I think I'll be somewhat competent, but it'll be fun learning!

I do think there's a lot to be learned by just watching nature at work though and then thinking why things happen, for instance why do rising cumulus clouds often have sharply defined edges? dense cloud and then suddenly totally clear? or watching eddies in water where fast flowing water meets quite still water and wondering why these happen?

When you think like that, then some of the explanations, given by people, make a lot more sense, imho, as the behaviour of fluids (if you can think of the atmosphere as a fluid, as well as the more obvious water) can be very similar when subject to certain forces. There's a universal reason for all weather behaviour, whether it's within our knowledge grasp or not.

While I've been typing this, EastEnders, with all its shouting has come on! Not a fan.

[Keraunic]

Same as I was looking at.

I've only recently (last couple of months) been taking a keen interest in the different models and there's definitely a lot of learning to be done here ! Some of the charts posted on this site I have to really study and interpret, as they are not natural to me at all. Give me a year before I think I'll be somewhat competent, but it'll be fun learning!

I do think there's a lot to be learned by just watching nature at work though and then thinking why things happen, for instance why do rising cumulus clouds often have sharply defined edges? dense cloud and then suddenly totally clear? or watching eddies in water where fast flowing water meets quite still water and wondering why these happen?

When you think like that, then some of the explanations, given by people, make a lot more sense, imho, as the behaviour of fluids (if you can think of the atmosphere as a fluid, as well as the more obvious water) can be very similar when subject to certain forces. There's a universal reason for all weather behaviour, whether it's within our knowledge grasp or not.

While I've been typing this, EastEnders, with all its shouting has come on! Not a fan.

I never thought of it like that, but you're right; nature and the weather are very closely intertwined. Must give that more thought.

Nah, Eastenders is so depressing IMO as are most soaps. Personally I much prefer a good documentary or docu drama.

[john pike]

there is another way of predicting the outlook

wait until they bring out a hose pipe ban

wash your car or start of the cricket season

or wait until winter when the jet goes above us

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

south east have some showers building up

http://www.severe-weather.co.uk/

humidity has really shot up here

[camiscool]

will there be rain tomorrow in the south east ( kent ) hopefully no..?

[Jason T]

there is another way of predicting the outlook

wait until they bring out a hose pipe ban

wash your car or start of the cricket season

or wait until winter when the jet goes above us

Now now John,Be a good boy don't tempt fate. Remember what started when pinocchio told porkies.

[biddie]

starting to look very black to the west threatening looking cloud

[Jason T]

starting to look very black to the west threatening looking cloud

Well it is Night time..........lol

[biddie]

Well it is Night time..........lol

i said threatening lol

[Jason T]

i said threatening lol

LOL Alright calm down calm down,I don't think much will happen tonight, If the cloud is westerly based then it will look darker as the sun setting ray is behind it.

Jason

[Snowangel-MK]

While I've been typing this, EastEnders, with all its shouting has come on! Not a fan.

me neither, don't really watch any of the soaps...you could always change channels, and while you've got the remote control in your hand can you fast forward to the weekend please

[Jason T]

This has been all so long overdue.........Enjoy the 14 day summer weather,Ladies Welcome,...... Gents waiting for you,Us gents, Welcome... Wooooman for us. I love Summer.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Jason T

[biddie]

LOL Alright calm down calm down,I don't think much will happen tonight, If the cloud is westerly based then it will look darker as the sun setting ray is behind it.

Jason

did u not see eastofax warning and it was definatly jet black rain cloud nothing to do with sun setting lol

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

met office warnings for tomorrow

shows the front over the south east so heavy rain it is for tomorrow

now the best bit

saturday dry warm and sunny spells

sunday dry warm and sunny

monday dry warm and sunny

tuesday warm with a slim chance of some showers

the further north of the region more likely

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

anyone near watford pick up anything from the cell that just past

[Jason T]

did u not see eastofax warning and it was definatly jet black rain cloud nothing to do with sun setting lol

I did biddie, but Amongst other things the humidity was low,However tomorrow holds a good chance is high,If you stepped outside now,There is no chill in the air at all,That is the start of our pattern change,So now we have low and high in the mix and when the sun comes up and starts to generate...(BOOM).

Regards.

Jason.

[Jason T]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

anyone near watford pick up anything from the cell that just past

JP, I think there evaporating faster than creating,Although Humidity has picked up now. Moisture could be drying up quicker from the low pressure being weak. If I'm wrong John please let me know.

Regards,

Jason.

[Mesoscale]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

anyone near watford pick up anything from the cell that just past

No mate was looking out my window in anticipation though.

[camiscool]

HEAVY RAIN TOMORROW NOOO?????

[john pike]

its hard to say at present

humidity has gone up which is weird at night

recently

some showers seem to be pepping up to the north of london

not seeing any lightning as cape is not there

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

some interesting temperatures tonight