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South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - July 12th 2012>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Hello Steve,

Where are you in Alresford or Chelmsford atm?

I am up in NW1 looking out on very dark skies from 27th floor but I was wondering what the weather was doing at home (Chelmsford)

Near Hatfield Peverel - I just say Chelmsford for convenience. We currently have light rain only, but the sky has a rainy look about it...

Here are CAPE charts from the Hi Res Model, for 19:00 today. Maybe, just maybe...

post-11059-0-99250600-1342786158_thumb.p

post-11059-0-94918200-1342786159_thumb.p

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claret047 Accomplished

claret047

Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
Posted

Near Hatfield Peverel - I just say Chelmsford for convenience. We currently have light rain only, but the sky has a rainy look about it...

Here are CAPE charts from the Hi Res Model, for 19:00 today. Maybe, just maybe...

Thanks Steve,

We can but hope!

Kind Regards

Dave

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snow raven Seasoned

snow raven

Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
Posted

Def got storms developing here just east of me.. sidcup/bexley area etc... got mammatus clouds my end, no thunder heard yet but wont be long

I'm in Bexleyheath and we just seem to have normal looking clouds (sorry, not v technical I know!)

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Skies are getting quite angry looking here, but as yet no heavy rain (but it's picking up...). However the radar is showing heavy rain developing over a lot of Essex.

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Heavens opened in the city. Torential for 15mins now blue sky. Guess who chose the 15mins to hop step it back to office from pub fool.gif

You should have told people that it wasn't worth going back in, as you were soaking wet and a bit tipsywink.png

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Some are saying in the Forecasting Model Output thread that it might rain on Tuesday & Wednesday in the South! bad.gif I've been looking to those 2 days all week, they were supposed to be the warmest.

Yes, it'll be a sickener if the long predicted fine spell is nothing more a couple of days. It'd be truly a damp squib.sad.png

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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

Best get out for a walk before it starts then. It's been lovely and warm and sunny here earlier.

Off topic now, but how do you quote just one part of a post instead of the whole thing? Bearing in mind I use an ipad2 . :) thanks.

Oh never mind, I'll find out somewhere else. Dull and overcast here now but no rain yet.

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

I'd try and help if I had an ipad, but I don't.smile.png I just delete the bits I don't want between the quotes signs.

I think you'll get rain imminently. If you've had a reasonable amount of sunshine, then who knows what may happen too.

Edited by Steve C
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snow raven Seasoned

snow raven

Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
Posted

been raining for a while here, got a bit of clear sky and looks like some CB's trying to build?

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WheresTheSnow Apprentice

WheresTheSnow

Posted
  • Location: Hemel
  • Location: Hemel
Posted

Yes, it'll be a sickener if the long predicted fine spell is nothing more a couple of days. It'd be truly a damp squib.sad.png

Steve, are they saying it's only the GFS showing rain for Tuesday & Wednesday in the model Discussion? I still see on BBC weather that they are going with sunny days on those Tues, Wedns which must mean they are going with the other models output? Anyways Im just praying for no rain next week + temps at least in low to mid 20's!

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

Yes, it looks like GFS, on a couple of runs, is the spanner in the works. To be honest, the longer range outlook on those runs is nowhere near as bad as recently imho, except the high pressure is sitting mostly to our west, so no real heatwave.

I think it's best to wait a day and see how other models update, before becoming too concerned.

Edited by Steve C
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john pike Maestro

john pike

Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
Posted

ecm earlier run

Recm721.gif

Recm961.gif

Recm1201.gif

Recm1441.gif

Recm1681.gif

these look dry and warm for the south east

if you look at wednesday it shows a t (means low pressure)

over ireland.

it may effect the midlands and possibly east anglia but only briefly.

i would hazard a guess the 12z gfs will resume the dry mode.

to me still looks goodsmile.png

its gone dark here now and tipping it down

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

ecm earlier run

these look dry and warm for the south east

if you look at wednesday it shows a t (means low pressure)

over ireland.

it may effect the midlands and possibly east anglia but only briefly.

i would hazard a guess the 12z gfs will resume the dry mode.

to me still looks goodsmile.png

its gone dark here now and tipping it down

Hopefullysmile.png

Colchester's had over 15mm of rain in the last hour and a half, but just nuisance value here.

Edited by Steve C
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Jezzer Explorer

Jezzer

Posted
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Warm sunny Summer days and deep snow in Winter with everything in between
  • Location: Addlestone, Surrey
Posted

Absolutely bucketing it down here, so much so I've lost my Sky signal!

Just praying it improves for next Saturday. Watching the road race in West Byfleet and then having a BBQ. Those weather gods need to lighten up :)

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Oh never mind, I'll find out somewhere else. Dull and overcast here now but no rain yet.

When I replied to JPs post recently, I had to go back and edit out his charts. Maybe that's just the way it is?

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Norfolk Sheep Seasoned

Norfolk Sheep

Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
Posted

For heaven's sake! Here I am, trying to finish some fence repairs and it's bloody raining yet again! Beyond fed up with these stupid little ploppy showers from horrid nasty stratus crap stuff wallbash.gif

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Guest archiesmummy

Guest archiesmummy

Posted
Posted

Chucking it down here, have had bits of sunshine off and on all day so hoping the thunderstorm gods visit soon!

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Buzzard Enthusiast

Buzzard

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Continental. Dry air, storms and snow.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
Posted

Impressive storm shield as usual in central London. Not even one drop from that line!

It's always the same looking west, seeing the showers on their well trodden path down to Surrey! Creatures of habit, I'm sure ;-)

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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted

Impressive storm shield as usual in central London. Not even one drop from that line!

It's always the same looking west, seeing the showers on their well trodden path down to Surrey! Creatures of habit, I'm sure ;-)

Had hail and strong gusts this side of london.. odd rumble but nothing to impress me..

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

Pretty impressive rain over east London now.

Also the not so heavy cell near Colchester has produced not far short of an inch of rain. It has stayed in the same area for a couple of hours. I've also just heard that the A12 is blocked in both directions near Colchester. Bang goes my hopes of a reasonable journey home! mad.gif I detest that road!!wallbash.gif

16:40 radar

post-11059-0-54530100-1342799429_thumb.p

Edited by Steve C
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