Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 12th to 14th August 2012

[Coast]

I daren't even get into those charts for next week yet, I'd hate to jinx it.........

Damn!!!!! That's torn it!!!!!

[Robbie Garrett]

I daren't even get into those charts for next week yet, I'd hate to jinx it.........

Damn!!!!! That's torn it!!!!!

To be fair, when was the last time we had this much Thundery Activity in the UK?? Must have been about 6 years ago. Look at my Storm count, ok ok, 2 where in Manchester but still??

Besides if the Euro High, Iberian/Atlantic low was still in existence... it's harder to downgrade than a pesky Azores Ridge?

Edited August 14, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[NUT]

Band of rain moving in different from the heavy showers that we're forecast um need to see if anything will pop up later (tomorrow now is the main concern)

[Stormeh]

Looks like there is a cracking storm near Stirling. Scotland doing well again for storms

[andymusic]

As it's so quiet in here - Scotland seems to have some convective activity right now mind you (not many reports though) - have a look at this - http://www.sat24.com/ - impressive day after tomorrow low over Russia/Eastern Europe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited August 14, 2012 by andymusic

[sn0wman]

OMG!!! Just had an amazing thunderstorm, didn't think Scotland could get ones like that! Lightning every 5 seconds at one point, and right overhead. It was mental!

[Stormeh]

OMG!!! Just had an amazing thunderstorm, didn't think Scotland could get ones like that! Lightning every 5 seconds at one point, and right overhead. It was mental!

Good stuff mate, I was reading reports on twitter from people in Alloa. Did you get any footage?

[Cloudwatcher]

Im currently in Pitlochry in Scotland. Nothing here yet but that radar is looking hopeful. Getting the camera ready!!

[NUT]

Not 1 rumble out of that band for us this time. Skies did look promising at times though

[Stuart]

we have thunder

[Methuselah]

Whatever's happened to the world-famous Sneckie Storm Shield (SST)?

[fromey]

afternoon all, changing the subject a little has anybody seen sat24, looks like there's a hurricane in europe!!

Edited August 14, 2012 by fromey

[Stuart]

Whatever's happened to the world-famous Sneckie Storm Shield (SST)?

not sure what happend to the storm Shield last few years here

[Methuselah]

not sure what happend to the storm Shield last few years here

I've a feeling that it might have attached itself to me, before I left!

[Cloudwatcher]

Been directly underneath the storm that is over Perthshire (Pitlochry) . Says something when you have to drive 300 miles to experience one!

Multiple CG's and CC's. The storm as it came over the mountains was just awesome to behold!

Got some shots, but in the end it was getting too hairy, even for me, as it came directly overhead and I realised I was the tallest things around! Saw some amazing rotation directly overhead.

[Cloudwatcher]

underneath the storm before. The rotation was amazing!

[Methuselah]

CE3K there, CW?Thanks for that...

[ardsar]

underneath the storm before. The rotation was amazing!

Stunning picture - must have been good to watch.

[IanR]

CW you will get of sick to death of seeing storms soon glad you caught some more storm action

there was over an hour long show of night lightning over the merseyside, fylde coast, irish sea yesterday evening as well

Edited August 14, 2012 by IanR

[Stuart]

Synopsis:

A deepening area of low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Ahead of the cold front, strong WAA will allow a plume of significantly high ThetaE to advect northwestwards across the British Isles. There is potential for severe convection ahead/along the cold front.

Discussion:A strengthening jet will move northwards across southern Britain, driving an active frontal boundary northwards as a surface low deepens to the southwest of Ireland. Within the warm sector, a substantial plume of very high ThetaE is expected, which should destabilise with the approach of the cold front.

As is often the case with frontal destabilisation in plume events, there is some uncertainty as to how widespread such convection will be. General thinking is along the cold front, with 40kts DLS and 30kts LLS, LEWP/bowing segments may form, with locally torrential rain and occasional lightning. With such shear values and substantial backing of surface winds, bowing segments would also be capable of produce a weak to moderate tornado.

If there is any sufficient insolation within the warm sector, it is possible that isolated convection may form ahead of the main cold front. If this is the case, then such convection may benefit from 700-800J/kg CAPE, coupled with ample shear and helicity with backed surface winds, and possibly resulting in a supercell capable of producing moderate hail and a tornado. However, this scenario is heavily dependent on sufficient cloud clearance, which is questionable.

Also, there are indications in most models of the eastern portion of the cold front becoming a zone of broken convection (mainly East Anglia and South East England), which would benefit better from ample shear and helicity to intensify into scattered thunderstorms or supercells, with a heightened risk of hail and a tornado. PWAT values of >40mm would be more than capable of producing local flooding from cell backbuilding.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/206

[Cloud 10]

Synopsis:

A deepening area of low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Ahead of the cold front, strong WAA will allow a plume of significantly high ThetaE to advect northwestwards across the British Isles. There is potential for severe convection ahead/along the cold front.

Discussion:A strengthening jet will move northwards across southern Britain, driving an active frontal boundary northwards as a surface low deepens to the southwest of Ireland. Within the warm sector, a substantial plume of very high ThetaE is expected, which should destabilise with the approach of the cold front.

As is often the case with frontal destabilisation in plume events, there is some uncertainty as to how widespread such convection will be. General thinking is along the cold front, with 40kts DLS and 30kts LLS, LEWP/bowing segments may form, with locally torrential rain and occasional lightning. With such shear values and substantial backing of surface winds, bowing segments would also be capable of produce a weak to moderate tornado.

If there is any sufficient insolation within the warm sector, it is possible that isolated convection may form ahead of the main cold front. If this is the case, then such convection may benefit from 700-800J/kg CAPE, coupled with ample shear and helicity with backed surface winds, and possibly resulting in a supercell capable of producing moderate hail and a tornado. However, this scenario is heavily dependent on sufficient cloud clearance, which is questionable.

Also, there are indications in most models of the eastern portion of the cold front becoming a zone of broken convection (mainly East Anglia and South East England), which would benefit better from ample shear and helicity to intensify into scattered thunderstorms or supercells, with a heightened risk of hail and a tornado. PWAT values of >40mm would be more than capable of producing local flooding from cell backbuilding.

http://www.ukasf.co....m-forecasts/206

Severe risk from UKASF.

[Hathers]

I dont think I've ever seen such a large part of the country under a red severe warning from Ukasf before. Do people think this is a similar setup to June 28th??

[IanR]

unbelievable , I have overheard a few comments today from people asking whats was that strange flashing in the sky last night and comments like 'flashing lights in the sky' , that just proves how rare storms are now, joe public dont generally relate it to lightning . some claimed it was to do with the meteor shower and even aliens....good god

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Could not be more in the middle of that fat red zone ! BOOM !

[PolarWarsaw]

Im a bit of late riser over the summer break from uni, so what time would you say is perfect to be up and ready for the action?